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      Global, regional, and national burden of multiple sclerosis 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

      research-article
      GBD 2016 Multiple Sclerosis Collaborators
      The Lancet. Neurology
      Lancet Pub. Group

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          Summary

          Background

          Multiple sclerosis is the most common inflammatory neurological disease in young adults. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic method of quantifying various effects of a given condition by demographic variables and geography. In this systematic analysis, we quantified the global burden of multiple sclerosis and its relationship with country development level.

          Methods

          We assessed the epidemiology of multiple sclerosis from 1990 to 2016. Epidemiological outcomes for multiple sclerosis were modelled with DisMod-MR version 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression framework widely used in GBD epidemiological modelling. Assessment of multiple sclerosis as the cause of death was based on 13 110 site-years of vital registration data analysed in the GBD's cause of death ensemble modelling module, which is designed to choose the optimum combination of mathematical models and predictive covariates based on out-of-sample predictive validity testing. Data on prevalence and deaths are summarised in the indicator, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), which was calculated as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with a disability. We used the Socio-demographic Index, a composite indicator of income per person, years of education, and fertility, to assess relations with development level.

          Findings

          In 2016, there were 2 221 188 prevalent cases of multiple sclerosis (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2 033 866–2 436 858) globally, which corresponded to a 10·4% (9·1 to 11·8) increase in the age-standardised prevalence since 1990. The highest age-standardised multiple sclerosis prevalence estimates per 100 000 population were in high-income North America (164·6, 95% UI, 153·2 to 177·1), western Europe (127·0, 115·4 to 139·6), and Australasia (91·1, 81·5 to 101·7), and the lowest were in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (3·3, 2·9–3·8), central sub-Saharan African (2·8, 2·4 to 3·1), and Oceania (2·0, 1·71 to 2·29). There were 18 932 deaths due to multiple sclerosis (95% UI 16 577 to 21 033) and 1 151 478 DALYs (968 605 to 1 345 776) due to multiple sclerosis in 2016. Globally, age-standardised death rates decreased significantly (change −11·5%, 95% UI −35·4 to −4·7), whereas the change in age-standardised DALYs was not significant (−4·2%, −16·4 to 0·8). YLLs due to premature death were greatest in the sixth decade of life (22·05, 95% UI 19·08 to 25·34). Changes in age-standardised DALYs assessed with the Socio-demographic Index between 1990 and 2016 were variable.

          Interpretation

          Multiple sclerosis is not common but is a potentially severe cause of neurological disability throughout adult life. Prevalence has increased substantially in many regions since 1990. These findings will be useful for resource allocation and planning in health services. Many regions worldwide have few or no epidemiological data on multiple sclerosis, and more studies are needed to make more accurate estimates.

          Funding

          Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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          Most cited references24

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          Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

          Summary Background Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. Methods We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15–60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. Findings Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5–24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates—a measure of relative inequality—increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7–87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8–83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. Interpretation Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.
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            PROBLEMS OF EXPERIMENTAL TRIALS OF THERAPY IN MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS: REPORT BY THE PANEL ON THE EVALUATION OF EXPERIMENTAL TRIALS OF THERAPY IN MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS.

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              The cost of multiple sclerosis drugs in the US and the pharmaceutical industry

              Objective: To examine the pricing trajectories in the United States of disease-modifying therapies (DMT) for multiple sclerosis (MS) over the last 20 years and assess the influences on rising prices. Methods: We estimated the trend in annual drug costs for 9 DMTs using published drug pricing data from 1993 to 2013. We compared changes in DMT costs to general and prescription drug inflation during the same period. We also compared the cost trajectories for first-generation MS DMTs interferon (IFN)–β-1b, IFN-β-1a IM, and glatiramer acetate with contemporaneously approved biologic tumor necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitors. Results: First-generation DMTs, originally costing $8,000 to $11,000, now cost about $60,000 per year. Costs for these agents have increased annually at rates 5 to 7 times higher than prescription drug inflation. Newer DMTs commonly entered the market with a cost 25%–60% higher than existing DMTs. Significant increases in the cost trajectory of the first-generation DMTs occurred following the Food and Drug Administration approvals of IFN-β-1a SC (2002) and natalizumab (reintroduced 2006) and remained high following introduction of fingolimod (2010). Similar changes did not occur with TNF inhibitor biologics during these time intervals. DMT costs in the United States currently are 2 to 3 times higher than in other comparable countries. Conclusions: MS DMT costs have accelerated at rates well beyond inflation and substantially above rates observed for drugs in a similar biologic class. There is an urgent need for clinicians, payers, and manufacturers in the United States to confront the soaring costs of DMTs.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Lancet Neurol
                Lancet Neurol
                The Lancet. Neurology
                Lancet Pub. Group
                1474-4422
                1474-4465
                1 March 2019
                March 2019
                : 18
                : 3
                : 269-285
                Author notes
                [* ]Correspondence to: Dr Mitchell T Wallin, Department of Veterans Affairs Multiple Sclerosis Center of Excellence and George Washington University, Washington, DC 20037, USA mitchell.wallin@ 123456va.gov
                [** ]Dr William J Culpepper, Department of Veterans Affairs Multiple Sclerosis Center of Excellence and University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD 21201, USA william.culpepper@ 123456va.gov
                [†]

                Collaborators listed at the end of the Article

                Article
                S1474-4422(18)30443-5
                10.1016/S1474-4422(18)30443-5
                6372756
                30679040
                8755091c-cf1b-4372-af21-fff2375af002
                © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license

                This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

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                Neurology
                Neurology

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