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      Contrasting streamflow regimes induced by melting glaciers across the Tien Shan – Pamir – North Karakoram

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          Abstract

          The glacierized Tien Shan – Pamir – Karakoram mountain complex supplies water to about 42 million people. Yet, the knowledge about future glacial runoff in response to future climate is limited. Here, we address this issue using a hydrological model, that includes the three components of glacial runoff: ice melt, snowmelt and the runoff of rainfall over ice. The model is forced by climate projections of the CMIP5 models. We find that the three components exhibit different long-term trajectories, sometimes opposite in sign to the long-term trend in glacier impacts. For the eastern slope basins, streamflow is projected to increase by 28% (ranging from 9 to 44%, from climate model variation (CMV)) by the late 21 st century, under the representative concentration pathway, RCP8.5. Ice melt contributes 39% (25 to 65%, CMV) of the total streamflow increase. However, streamflow from the western slopes is projected to decrease by 5% (−24 to 16%, CMV), due to the smaller contribution of ice melt, less precipitation and higher evapotranspiration. Increasing water supply from the eastern slopes suggests more water availability for currently degraded downstream ecosystems in the Xinjiang province of China, while the likely decreasing streamflow in Central Asian rivers on the western slopes indicates new regulations will be needed.

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          Different glacier status with atmospheric circulations in Tibetan Plateau and surroundings

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            Global-scale hydrological response to future glacier mass loss

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              Consistent increase in High Asia's runoff due to increasing glacier melt and precipitation

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                luoyi@igsnrr.ac.cn
                slpiao@pku.edu.cn
                Journal
                Sci Rep
                Sci Rep
                Scientific Reports
                Nature Publishing Group UK (London )
                2045-2322
                7 November 2018
                7 November 2018
                2018
                : 8
                : 16470
                Affiliations
                [1 ]ISNI 0000000119573309, GRID grid.9227.e, Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, , Chinese Academy of Sciences, ; Beijing, 100101 China
                [2 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1797 8419, GRID grid.410726.6, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, ; 19A Yuquan Rd, Shijingshan District, Beijing, 100049 China
                [3 ]ISNI 0000000119573309, GRID grid.9227.e, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, , Chinese Academy of Sciences, ; Urumqi, 830011 Xinjiang China
                [4 ]ISNI 0000000119573309, GRID grid.9227.e, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, , Center for Excellence in Tibetan Earth Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, ; Beijing, 100085 China
                [5 ]ISNI 0000 0001 2256 9319, GRID grid.11135.37, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, , College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, ; Beijing, 100871 China
                [6 ]ISNI 0000 0001 0584 9722, GRID grid.457340.1, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE), CEA CNRS UVSQ, ; 91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France
                [7 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1760 4150, GRID grid.144022.1, College of Natural Resources and Environment, , Northwest A&F University, ; No.3 Taicheng Road, Yangling, 712100 Shaanxi China
                [8 ]ISNI 0000 0001 0672 1122, GRID grid.268187.2, Department of Geography, , Western Michigan University, ; 1903 W Michigan, Ave Kalamazoo, MI 49008-5424 USA
                Article
                34829
                10.1038/s41598-018-34829-2
                6220244
                8756b8be-949c-4ede-ab98-44ef18c2b9d6
                © The Author(s) 2018

                Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

                History
                : 23 January 2018
                : 19 September 2018
                Funding
                Funded by: FundRef https://doi.org/10.13039/501100001809, National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China);
                Award ID: 41130641
                Award ID: 41130641
                Award ID: 41130641
                Award ID: 41130641
                Award ID: 41130641
                Award ID: 41130641
                Award ID: 41130641
                Award ID: 41130641
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