Risk-based surveillance for avian influenza control along poultry market chains in South China: The value of social network analysis

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Abstract

Over the past two decades, the poultry sector in China went through a phase of tremendous growth as well as rapid intensification and concentration. Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) subtype H5N1 was first detected in 1996 in Guangdong province, South China and started spreading throughout Asia in early 2004. Since then, control of the disease in China has relied heavily on wide-scale preventive vaccination combined with movement control, quarantine and stamping out. This strategy has been successful in drastically reducing the number of outbreaks during the past 5 years. However, HPAIV H5N1 is still circulating and is regularly isolated in traditional live bird markets (LBMs) where viral infection can persist, which represent a public health hazard for people visiting them. The use of social network analysis in combination with epidemiological surveillance in South China has identified areas where the success of current strategies for HPAI control in the poultry production sector may benefit from better knowledge of poultry trading patterns and the LBM network configuration as well as their capacity for maintaining HPAIV H5N1 infection. We produced a set of LBM network maps and estimated the associated risk of HPAIV H5N1 within LBMs and along poultry market chains, providing new insights into how live poultry trade and infection are intertwined. More specifically, our study provides evidence that several biosecurity factors such as daily cage cleaning, daily cage disinfection or manure processing contribute to a reduction in HPAIV H5N1 presence in LBMs. Of significant importance is that the results of our study also show the association between social network indicators and the presence of HPAIV H5N1 in specific network configurations such as the one represented by the counties of origin of the birds traded in LBMs. This new information could be used to develop more targeted and effective control interventions.

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Network theory and SARS: predicting outbreak diversity

Lauren Ancel Meyers, Babak Pourbohloul, M.E.J. Newman … (2004)

Many infectious diseases spread through populations via the networks formed by physical contacts among individuals. The patterns of these contacts tend to be highly heterogeneous. Traditional “compartmental” modeling in epidemiology, however, assumes that population groups are fully mixed, that is, every individual has an equal chance of spreading the disease to every other. Applications of compartmental models to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) resulted in estimates of the fundamental quantity called the basic reproductive number R 0 —the number of new cases of SARS resulting from a single initial case—above one, implying that, without public health intervention, most outbreaks should spark large-scale epidemics. Here we compare these predictions to the early epidemiology of SARS. We apply the methods of contact network epidemiology to illustrate that for a single value of R 0 , any two outbreaks, even in the same setting, may have very different epidemiological outcomes. We offer quantitative insight into the heterogeneity of SARS outbreaks worldwide, and illustrate the utility of this approach for assessing public health strategies.

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Wet markets—a continuing source of severe acute respiratory syndrome and influenza?

Robert G. Webster (2004)

Summary Context Live-animal markets (wet markets) provide a source of vertebrate and invertebrate animals for customers in tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Wet markets sell live poultry, fish, reptiles, and mammals of every kind. Live-poultry markets (mostly chicken, pigeon, quail, ducks, geese, and a wide range of exotic wild-caught and farm-raised fowl) are usually separated from markets selling fish or red-meat animals, but the stalls can be near each other with no physical separation. Despite the widespread availability of affordable refrigeration, many Asian people prefer live animals for fresh produce. Wet markets are widespread in Asian countries and in countries where Asian people have migrated. Live-poultry markets were the source of the H5N1 bird-influenza virus that transmitted to and killed six of 18people in Hong Kong. Starting point Yi Guan and colleagues (Science 2003; 302: 276–78) recently reported the isolation of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus (CoV) from Himalayan palm civets (Paguna larvata) in wet markets in Shenzen, southern China. These researchers also found serological evidence of infection in raccoon dogs (Nyctereutes pro-cuyoinboides). Serological evidence for SARS CoV in human beings working in these markets, taken together with the earliest cases of SARS in restaurant workers, supports the contention of a potential zoonotic origin for SARS. Where next? Will SARS reappear? This question confronts public-health officials worldwide, particularly infectious disease personnel in those regions of the world most affected by the disease and the economic burden of SARS, including China, Taiwan, and Canada. Will the virus re-emerge from wet markets or from laboratories working with SARS CoV, or are asymptomatic infections ongoing in human beings? Similar questions can be asked about a pandemic of influenza that is probably imminent. Knowledge of the ecology of influenza in wet markets can be used as an early-warning system to detect the reappearance of SARS or pandemic influenza.

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Mapping H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza risk in Southeast Asia.

Dirk U. Pfeiffer, Jan Slingenbergh, Phan Q Minh … (2008)

The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus that emerged in southern China in the mid-1990s has in recent years evolved into the first HPAI panzootic. In many countries where the virus was detected, the virus was successfully controlled, whereas other countries face periodic reoccurrence despite significant control efforts. A central question is to understand the factors favoring the continuing reoccurrence of the virus. The abundance of domestic ducks, in particular free-grazing ducks feeding in intensive rice cropping areas, has been identified as one such risk factor based on separate studies carried out in Thailand and Vietnam. In addition, recent extensive progress was made in the spatial prediction of rice cropping intensity obtained through satellite imagery processing. This article analyses the statistical association between the recorded HPAI H5N1 virus presence and a set of five key environmental variables comprising elevation, human population, chicken numbers, duck numbers, and rice cropping intensity for three synchronous epidemic waves in Thailand and Vietnam. A consistent pattern emerges suggesting risk to be associated with duck abundance, human population, and rice cropping intensity in contrast to a relatively low association with chicken numbers. A statistical risk model based on the second epidemic wave data in Thailand is found to maintain its predictive power when extrapolated to Vietnam, which supports its application to other countries with similar agro-ecological conditions such as Laos or Cambodia. The model's potential application to mapping HPAI H5N1 disease risk in Indonesia is discussed.

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Author and article information

Contributors

Vincent Martin

Journal

Journal ID (nlm-ta): Prev Vet Med

Journal ID (iso-abbrev): Prev. Vet. Med

Title: Preventive Veterinary Medicine

Publisher: Elsevier B.V.

ISSN (Print): 0167-5877

ISSN (Electronic): 1873-1716

Publication date PMC-release: 16 September 2011

Publication date (Print): 1 December 2011

Publication date (Electronic): 16 September 2011

Volume: 102

Issue: 3

Pages: 196-205

Affiliations

[a ]Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Beijing, PR China

[b ]Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, Brisbane, Australia

[c ]School for Global Animal Health, Washington State University, Davis, CA, USA

[d ]Animal Production and Health Division, FAO, Rome, Italy

[e ]Veterinary Epidemiology & Public Health Group, Department of Veterinary Clinical Sciences, The Royal Veterinary College, University of London, United Kingdom

[f ]School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Australia

[g ]Biological Control and Spatial Ecology, Université Libre de Bruxelles, av FD Roosevelt 50, B-1050 Brussels, Belgium

[h ]Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique, rue d’Egmont 5, B-1000 Brussels, Belgium

Author notes

[* ]Corresponding author at: FAO representation for China, Mongolia and DPRK, No. 2-151C Tayuan Diplomatic Office Building, No. 14 Liang Ma He Nan Lu, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100 600, PR China. Tel.: +86 10 8532 3634. Vincent.Martin@ 123456fao.org

Article

Publisher ID: S0167-5877(11)00233-9

DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2011.07.007

PMC ID: 7127115

PubMed ID: 21925753

SO-VID: 880dd21c-6d58-402a-83ef-4982e6bb59cf

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Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

Risk-based surveillance for avian influenza control along poultry market chains in South China: The value of social network analysis

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Most cited references 24

Network theory and SARS: predicting outbreak diversity

Wet markets—a continuing source of severe acute respiratory syndrome and influenza?

Mapping H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza risk in Southeast Asia.

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