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      Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

      research-article
      GBD 2015 Risk Factors Collaborators
      Lancet (London, England)
      Elsevier

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          Summary

          Background

          The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context.

          Methods

          We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI).

          Findings

          Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa.

          Interpretation

          Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden.

          Funding

          Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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          Most cited references74

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          A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

          The Lancet, 380(9859), 2224-2260
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            Randomised trial of cholesterol lowering in 4444 patients with coronary heart disease: the Scandinavian Simvastatin Survival Study (4S)

            Drug therapy for hypercholesterolaemia has remained controversial mainly because of insufficient clinical trial evidence for improved survival. The present trial was designed to evaluate the effect of cholesterol lowering with simvastatin on mortality and morbidity in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD). 4444 patients with angina pectoris or previous myocardial infarction and serum cholesterol 5.5-8.0 mmol/L on a lipid-lowering diet were randomised to double-blind treatment with simvastatin or placebo. Over the 5.4 years median follow-up period, simvastatin produced mean changes in total cholesterol, low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol, and high-density-lipoprotein cholesterol of -25%, -35%, and +8%, respectively, with few adverse effects. 256 patients (12%) in the placebo group died, compared with 182 (8%) in the simvastatin group. The relative risk of death in the simvastatin group was 0.70 (95% CI 0.58-0.85, p = 0.0003). The 6-year probabilities of survival in the placebo and simvastatin groups were 87.6% and 91.3%, respectively. There were 189 coronary deaths in the placebo group and 111 in the simvastatin group (relative risk 0.58, 95% CI 0.46-0.73), while noncardiovascular causes accounted for 49 and 46 deaths, respectively. 622 patients (28%) in the placebo group and 431 (19%) in the simvastatin group had one or more major coronary events. The relative risk was 0.66 (95% CI 0.59-0.75, p < 0.00001), and the respective probabilities of escaping such events were 70.5% and 79.6%. This risk was also significantly reduced in subgroups consisting of women and patients of both sexes aged 60 or more. Other benefits of treatment included a 37% reduction (p < 0.00001) in the risk of undergoing myocardial revascularisation procedures. This study shows that long-term treatment with simvastatin is safe and improves survival in CHD patients.
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              Breast and cervical cancer in 187 countries between 1980 and 2010: a systematic analysis.

              Breast and cervical cancer are important causes of mortality in women aged ≥15 years. We undertook annual age-specific assessments of breast and cervical cancer in 187 countries. We systematically collected cancer registry data on mortality and incidence, vital registration, and verbal autopsy data for the period 1980-2010. We modelled the mortality-to-incidence (MI) ratio using a hierarchical model. Vital registration and verbal autopsy were supplemented with incidence multiplied by the MI ratio to yield a comprehensive database of mortality rates. We used Gaussian process regression to develop estimates of mortality with uncertainty by age, sex, country, and year. We used out-of-sample predictive validity to select the final model. Estimates of incidence with uncertainty were also generated with mortality and MI ratios. Global breast cancer incidence increased from 641,000 (95% uncertainty intervals 610,000-750,000) cases in 1980 to 1,643,000 (1,421,000-1,782,000) cases in 2010, an annual rate of increase of 3·1%. Global cervical cancer incidence increased from 378,000 (256,000-489,000) cases per year in 1980 to 454,000 (318,000-620,000) cases per year in 2010-a 0·6% annual rate of increase. Breast cancer killed 425,000 (359,000-453,000) women in 2010, of whom 68,000 (62,000-74,000) were aged 15-49 years in developing countries. Cervical cancer death rates have been decreasing but the disease still killed 200,000 (139,000-276,000) women in 2010, of whom 46,000 (33,000-64,000) were aged 15-49 years in developing countries. We recorded pronounced variation in the trend in breast cancer mortality across regions and countries. More policy attention is needed to strengthen established health-system responses to reduce breast and cervical cancer, especially in developing countries. Susan G Komen for the Cure and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Lancet
                Lancet
                Lancet (London, England)
                Elsevier
                0140-6736
                1474-547X
                08 October 2016
                08 October 2016
                : 388
                : 10053
                : 1659-1724
                Author notes
                [†]

                Collaborators listed at the end of the Article

                Article
                S0140-6736(16)31679-8
                10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31679-8
                5388856
                27733284
                8a150786-6a91-4bf5-8ec7-d4a39b664a56
                © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license

                This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

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