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      Predictors of recurrent stroke in African Americans.


      epidemiology, Activities of Daily Living, African Americans, statistics & numerical data, Disability Evaluation, Female, Humans, Incidence, Male, Outcome Assessment (Health Care), methods, Prognosis, Recurrence, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, Stroke, ethnology, mortality, Survival Analysis, Survival Rate, United States

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          Stroke incidence and mortality are disproportionately higher among African Americans than among whites. To describe the recurrent stroke characteristics and determine the predictability of known vascular risk factors for stroke recurrence in African Americans. The authors followed 1,809 African Americans in the African-American Antiplatelet Stroke Prevention Study with recent noncardioembolic ischemic stroke for recurrent stroke, recurrent stroke subtype, and disability. Of the subjects, 10.6% experienced a recurrent stroke during follow-up. The mean interval between eligibility and recurrent stroke was 325 days (median 287 days, SD = 224 days). Stroke recurrence resulted in an average 1.5-point increase in the National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (p < 0.001) and a 3.5-point decrease in modified Barthel Index (p < 0.001). Of previously nondisabled subjects, 48% became disabled or died after stroke recurrence (p < 0.0001). Longitudinal analysis resulted in a hazard for recurrent stroke for each 10-mm Hg increase in systolic blood pressure of 1.103 (95% CI: 1.031 to 1.179, p = 0.004), pulse pressure 1.123 (95% CI: 1.041 to 1.213, p = 0.003), and mean arterial pressure 1.123 (95% CI: 1.001 to 1.260, p = 0.048). Multivariate analysis revealed increases in the recurrent stroke hazard for increases in baseline Glasgow Outcome Score (1.449, 95% CI: 1.071 to 1.961, p = 0.016) and increases in longitudinal pulse pressure (1.009, 95% CI: 1.001 to 1.017, p = 0.029). Recurrent stroke leads to disability and disability predicts recurrent stroke. Hypertension is the most predictive modifiable stroke risk factor.

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