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      Viral emergence in marine mammals in the North Pacific may be linked to Arctic sea ice reduction

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          Abstract

          Climate change-driven alterations in Arctic environments can influence habitat availability, species distributions and interactions, and the breeding, foraging, and health of marine mammals. Phocine distemper virus (PDV), which has caused extensive mortality in Atlantic seals, was confirmed in sea otters in the North Pacific Ocean in 2004, raising the question of whether reductions in sea ice could increase contact between Arctic and sub-Arctic marine mammals and lead to viral transmission across the Arctic Ocean. Using data on PDV exposure and infection and animal movement in sympatric seal, sea lion, and sea otter species sampled in the North Pacific Ocean from 2001–2016, we investigated the timing of PDV introduction, risk factors associated with PDV emergence, and patterns of transmission following introduction. We identified widespread exposure to and infection with PDV across the North Pacific Ocean beginning in 2003 with a second peak of PDV exposure and infection in 2009; viral transmission across sympatric marine mammal species; and association of PDV exposure and infection with reductions in Arctic sea ice extent. Peaks of PDV exposure and infection following 2003 may reflect additional viral introductions among the diverse marine mammals in the North Pacific Ocean linked to change in Arctic sea ice extent.

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          Most cited references37

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          Continuous-time correlated random walk model for animal telemetry data.

          We propose a continuous-time version of the correlated random walk model for animal telemetry data. The continuous-time formulation allows data that have been nonuniformly collected over time to be modeled without subsampling, interpolation, or aggregation to obtain a set of locations uniformly spaced in time. The model is derived from a continuous-time Ornstein-Uhlenbeck velocity process that is integrated to form a location process. The continuous-time model was placed into a state-space framework to allow parameter estimation and location predictions from observed animal locations. Two previously unpublished marine mammal telemetry data sets were analyzed to illustrate use of the model, by-products available from the analysis, and different modifications which are possible. A harbor seal data set was analyzed with a model that incorporates the proportion of each hour spent on land. Also, a northern fur seal pup data set was analyzed with a random drift component to account for directed travel and ocean currents.
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            Footprints of climate change in the Arctic marine ecosystem

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              Influence of high-latitude atmospheric circulation changes on summertime Arctic sea ice

              The Arctic is warming and sea ice is declining, but how the two link is unclear. This study shows changes in summertime atmospheric circulation and internal variability may have caused up to 60% of September sea-ice decline since 1979.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                tgoldstein@ucdavis.edu
                Journal
                Sci Rep
                Sci Rep
                Scientific Reports
                Nature Publishing Group UK (London )
                2045-2322
                7 November 2019
                7 November 2019
                2019
                : 9
                : 15569
                Affiliations
                [1 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1936 9684, GRID grid.27860.3b, Wildlife Health Center, One Health Institute, 1089 Veterinary Drive, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, ; Davis, CA 95616 USA
                [2 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1937 0060, GRID grid.24434.35, School of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska, ; Lincoln, NE 68583 USA
                [3 ]ISNI 0000 0001 0721 1626, GRID grid.11914.3c, Sea Mammal Research Unit, Gatty Marine Laboratory, University of St Andrews, ; St Andrews, Fife KY16 8LB UK
                [4 ]U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Marine Mammals Management, 1011 East Tudor Road, Anchorage, AK 99503 USA
                [5 ]ISNI 0000 0001 1356 4495, GRID grid.422702.1, NOAA Fisheries, 222W. 7th Ave, Rm 552, ; Anchorage, AK 99513 USA
                [6 ]ISNI 0000 0001 1356 4495, GRID grid.422702.1, Alaska Fisheries Science Center Marine Mammal Laboratory, NMFS, 7600 Sand Point Way N.E., Seattle, ; Washington, 98115 USA
                [7 ]ISNI 0000 0001 2193 314X, GRID grid.8756.c, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, ; Glasgow, G61 1QH UK
                [8 ]ISNI 0000 0001 0698 5259, GRID grid.417842.c, Steller Sea Lion Research Program, Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Division of Wildlife Conservation, ; 1300 College Road, Fairbanks, AK 99701 USA
                [9 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1936 981X, GRID grid.70738.3b, Institute of Northern Engineering, 1764 Tanana Loop, ELIF Suite 240, University of Alaska Fairbanks, ; Fairbanks, Alaska 99775 USA
                [10 ]ISNI 0000 0004 0374 7521, GRID grid.4777.3, Centre for Experimental Medicine, School of Medicine, Dentistry and Biomedical Sciences, Medical Biology Centre, Queen’s University Belfast, ; 97 Lisburn Road, Belfast, BT9 7BL UK
                [11 ]ISNI 0000 0004 0388 7540, GRID grid.63622.33, The Pirbright Institute, Ash Road, Pirbright, ; Woking, GU24 0NF UK
                [12 ]Alaska Veterinary Pathology Service, 23834 The Clearing Dr., Eagle River, AK 99577 USA
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3647-5046
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9172-1887
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2617-8603
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1672-7410
                Article
                51699
                10.1038/s41598-019-51699-4
                6838065
                31700005
                8aed4f7b-ea51-47a6-b9c0-501146da1fce
                © The Author(s) 2019

                Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

                History
                : 10 January 2019
                : 1 October 2019
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                © The Author(s) 2019

                Uncategorized
                ecological epidemiology,pathogens
                Uncategorized
                ecological epidemiology, pathogens

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