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      Should autism be considered a canary bird telling that Homo sapiens may be on its way to extinction?

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          Abstract

          There has been a dramatic enhancement of the reported incidence of autism in different parts of the world over the last 30 years. This can apparently not be explained only as a result of improved diagnosis and reporting, but may also reflect a real change. The causes of this change are unknown, but if we shall follow T.C. Chamberlin's principle of multiple working hypotheses, we need to take into consideration the possibility that it partly may reflect an enhancement of the average frequency of responsible alleles in large populations. If this hypothesis is correct, it means that the average germline mutation rate must now be much higher in the populations concerned, compared with the natural mutation rate in hominid ancestors before the agricultural and industrial revolutions. This is compatible with the high prevalence of impaired human semen quality in several countries and also with what is known about high levels of total exposure to several different unnatural chemical mutagens, plus some natural ones at unnaturally high levels. Moreover, dietary deficiency conditions that may lead to enhancement of mutation rates are also very widespread, affecting billions of people. However, the natural mutation rate in hominids has been found to be so high that there is apparently no tolerance for further enhancement of the germline mutation rate before the Eigen error threshold will be exceeded and our species will go extinct because of mutational meltdown. This threat, if real, should be considered far more serious than any disease causing the death only of individual patients. It should therefore be considered the first and highest priority of the best biomedical scientists in the world, of research-funding agencies and of all medical doctors to try to stop the express train carrying all humankind as passengers on board before it arrives at the end station of our civilization.

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          Most cited references 182

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          Estimate of the mutation rate per nucleotide in humans.

          Many previous estimates of the mutation rate in humans have relied on screens of visible mutants. We investigated the rate and pattern of mutations at the nucleotide level by comparing pseudogenes in humans and chimpanzees to (i) provide an estimate of the average mutation rate per nucleotide, (ii) assess heterogeneity of mutation rate at different sites and for different types of mutations, (iii) test the hypothesis that the X chromosome has a lower mutation rate than autosomes, and (iv) estimate the deleterious mutation rate. Eighteen processed pseudogenes were sequenced, including 12 on autosomes and 6 on the X chromosome. The average mutation rate was estimated to be approximately 2.5 x 10(-8) mutations per nucleotide site or 175 mutations per diploid genome per generation. Rates of mutation for both transitions and transversions at CpG dinucleotides are one order of magnitude higher than mutation rates at other sites. Single nucleotide substitutions are 10 times more frequent than length mutations. Comparison of rates of evolution for X-linked and autosomal pseudogenes suggests that the male mutation rate is 4 times the female mutation rate, but provides no evidence for a reduction in mutation rate that is specific to the X chromosome. Using conservative calculations of the proportion of the genome subject to purifying selection, we estimate that the genomic deleterious mutation rate (U) is at least 3. This high rate is difficult to reconcile with multiplicative fitness effects of individual mutations and suggests that synergistic epistasis among harmful mutations may be common.
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            Genomic divergences between humans and other hominoids and the effective population size of the common ancestor of humans and chimpanzees.

             Yin-yin Chen,  Wei Li (2001)
            To study the genomic divergences among hominoids and to estimate the effective population size of the common ancestor of humans and chimpanzees, we selected 53 autosomal intergenic nonrepetitive DNA segments from the human genome and sequenced them in a human, a chimpanzee, a gorilla, and an orangutan. The average sequence divergence was only 1.24% +/- 0.07% for the human-chimpanzee pair, 1.62% +/- 0.08% for the human-gorilla pair, and 1.63% +/- 0.08% for the chimpanzee-gorilla pair. These estimates, which were confirmed by additional data from GenBank, are substantially lower than previous ones, which included repetitive sequences and might have been based on less-accurate sequence data. The average sequence divergences between orangutans and humans, chimpanzees, and gorillas were 3.08% +/- 0.11%, 3.12% +/- 0.11%, and 3.09% +/- 0.11%, respectively, which also are substantially lower than previous estimates. The sequence divergences in other regions between hominoids were estimated from extensive data in GenBank and the literature, and Alus showed the highest divergence, followed in order by Y-linked noncoding regions, pseudogenes, autosomal intergenic regions, X-linked noncoding regions, synonymous sites, introns, and nonsynonymous sites. The neighbor-joining tree derived from the concatenated sequence of the 53 segments--24,234 bp in length--supports the Homo-Pan clade with a 100% bootstrap value. However, when each segment is analyzed separately, 22 of the 53 segments (approximately 42%) give a tree that is incongruent with the species tree, suggesting a large effective population size (N(e)) of the common ancestor of Homo and Pan. Indeed, a parsimony analysis of the 53 segments and 37 protein-coding genes leads to an estimate of N(e) = 52,000 to 96,000. As this estimate is 5 to 9 times larger than the long-term effective population size of humans (approximately 10,000) estimated from various genetic polymorphism data, the human lineage apparently had experienced a large reduction in effective population size after its separation from the chimpanzee lineage. Our analysis assumes a molecular clock, which is in fact supported by the sequence data used. Taking the orangutan speciation date as 12 to 16 million years ago, we obtain an estimate of 4.6 to 6.2 million years for the Homo-Pan divergence and an estimate of 6.2 to 8.4 million years for the gorilla speciation date, suggesting that the gorilla lineage branched off 1.6 to 2.2 million years earlier than did the human-chimpanzee divergence.
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              Maternal metabolic conditions and risk for autism and other neurodevelopmental disorders.

              We examined whether metabolic conditions (MCs) during pregnancy (diabetes, hypertension, and obesity) are associated with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), developmental delays (DD), or impairments in specific domains of development in the offspring. Children aged 2 to 5 years (517 ASD, 172 DD, and 315 controls) were enrolled in the CHARGE (Childhood Autism Risks from Genetics and the Environment) study, a population-based, case-control investigation between January 2003 and June 2010. Eligible children were born in California, had parents who spoke English or Spanish, and were living with a biological parent in selected regions of California. Children's diagnoses were confirmed by using standardized assessments. Information regarding maternal conditions was ascertained from medical records or structured interview with the mother. All MCs were more prevalent among case mothers compared with controls. Collectively, these conditions were associated with a higher likelihood of ASD and DD relative to controls (odds ratio: 1.61 [95% confidence interval: 1.10-2.37; odds ratio: 2.35 [95% confidence interval: 1.43-3.88], respectively). Among ASD cases, children of women with diabetes had Mullen Scales of Early Learning (MSEL) expressive language scores 0.4 SD lower than children of mothers without MCs (P < .01). Among children without ASD, those exposed to any MC scored lower on all MSEL and Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales (VABS) subscales and composites by at least 0.4 SD (P < .01 for each subscale/composite). Maternal MCs may be broadly associated with neurodevelopmental problems in children. With obesity rising steadily, these results appear to raise serious public health concerns.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Microb Ecol Health Dis
                Microb. Ecol. Health Dis
                MEHD
                Microbial Ecology in Health and Disease
                Co-Action Publishing
                0891-060X
                1651-2235
                24 August 2012
                2012
                : 23
                Affiliations
                Pensioned Norwegian state stipendiate
                Author notes
                [* ] Olav Albert Christophersen, Ragnhild Schibbyes v. 26, 0968 Oslo, Norway. Email: olav.albert.christophersen@ 123456gmail.com
                Article
                19008
                10.3402/mehd.v23i0.19008
                3747741
                23990819
                © 2012 Olav Albert Christophersen

                This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

                Categories
                Thematic Cluster: Focus on Autism Spectrum Disorders

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