Healthcare reform plans refer to improved quality, but there is little quantification
of potential health benefits of quality care.
This paper aims to estimate the health benefits by greater use of clinical preventive
services.
Two mathematical models were developed to estimate the number of deaths potentially
prevented per year by increasing use of nine clinical preventive services. One model
estimated preventable deaths from all causes, and the other estimated preventable
deaths from specific categories of causes. Models were based on estimates of the prevalence
of risk factors for which interventions are recommended, the effect of those risk
factors on mortality, the effect of the interventions on mortality in those at risk,
and current and achievable rates of utilization of the interventions.
Both models predicted substantial numbers of deaths prevented by greater use of the
preventive services, with the greatest increases from services that prevent cardiovascular
disease. For example, the all-cause model predicted that every 10% increase in hypertension
treatment would lead to an additional 14,000 deaths prevented and every 10% increase
in treatment of elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol or aspirin prophylaxis
would lead to 8000 deaths prevented in those aged <80 years, per year. Overall, the
models suggest that optimal use of all of these interventions could prevent 50,000-100,000
deaths per year in those aged <80 years and 25,000-40,000 deaths per year in those
aged <65 years.
Substantial improvements in population health are achievable through greater use of
a small number of preventive services. Healthcare systems should maximize use of these
services.
2010 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. All rights reserved.