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      • Record: found
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      Climate and Dengue Transmission: Evidence and Implications

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          Abstract

          Background: Climate influences dengue ecology by affecting vector dynamics, agent development, and mosquito/human interactions. Although these relationships are known, the impact climate change will have on transmission is unclear. Climate-driven statistical and process-based models are being used to refine our knowledge of these relationships and predict the effects of projected climate change on dengue fever occurrence, but results have been inconsistent.

          Objective: We sought to identify major climatic influences on dengue virus ecology and to evaluate the ability of climate-based dengue models to describe associations between climate and dengue, simulate outbreaks, and project the impacts of climate change.

          Methods: We reviewed the evidence for direct and indirect relationships between climate and dengue generated from laboratory studies, field studies, and statistical analyses of associations between vectors, dengue fever incidence, and climate conditions. We assessed the potential contribution of climate-driven, process-based dengue models and provide suggestions to improve their performance.

          Results and Discussion: Relationships between climate variables and factors that influence dengue transmission are complex. A climate variable may increase dengue transmission potential through one aspect of the system while simultaneously decreasing transmission potential through another. This complexity may at least partly explain inconsistencies in statistical associations between dengue and climate. Process-based models can account for the complex dynamics but often omit important aspects of dengue ecology, notably virus development and host–species interactions.

          Conclusion: Synthesizing and applying current knowledge of climatic effects on all aspects of dengue virus ecology will help direct future research and enable better projections of climate change effects on dengue incidence.

          Citation: Morin CW, Comrie AC, Ernst KC. 2013. Climate and dengue transmission: evidence and implications. Environ Health Perspect 121:1264–1272;  http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306556

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          Critical review of the vector status of Aedes albopictus.

          N G Gratz (2004)
          The mosquito Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae), originally indigenous to South-east Asia, islands of the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean, has spread during recent decades to Africa, the mid-east, Europe and the Americas (north and south) after extending its range eastwards across Pacific islands during the early 20th century. The majority of introductions are apparently due to transportation of dormant eggs in tyres. Among public health authorities in the newly infested countries and those threatened with the introduction, there has been much concern that Ae. albopictus would lead to serious outbreaks of arbovirus diseases (Ae. albopictus is a competent vector for at least 22 arboviruses), notably dengue (all four serotypes) more commonly transmitted by Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.). Results of many laboratory studies have shown that many arboviruses are readily transmitted by Ae. albopictus to laboratory animals and birds, and have frequently been isolated from wild-caught mosquitoes of this species, particularly in the Americas. As Ae. albopictus continues to spread, displacing Ae. aegypti in some areas, and is anthropophilic throughout its range, it is important to review the literature and attempt to predict whether the medical risks are as great as have been expressed in scientific journals and the popular press. Examination of the extensive literature indicates that Ae. albopictus probably serves as a maintenance vector of dengue in rural areas of dengue-endemic countries of South-east Asia and Pacific islands. Also Ae. albopictus transmits dog heartworm Dirofilaria immitis (Leidy) (Spirurida: Onchocercidae) in South-east Asia, south-eastern U.S.A. and both D. immitis and Dirofilaria repens (Raillet & Henry) in Italy. Despite the frequent isolation of dengue viruses from wild-caught mosquitoes, there is no evidence that Ae. albopictus is an important urban vector of dengue, except in a limited number of countries where Ae. aegypti is absent, i.e. parts of China, the Seychelles, historically in Japan and most recently in Hawaii. Further research is needed on the dynamics of the interaction between Ae. albopictus and other Stegomyia species. Surveillance must also be maintained on the vectorial role of Ae. albopictus in countries endemic for dengue and other arboviruses (e.g. Chikungunya, EEE, Ross River, WNV, LaCrosse and other California group viruses), for which it would be competent and ecologically suited to serve as a bridge vector.
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            Potential effect of population and climate changes on global distribution of dengue fever: an empirical model.

            Simon Hales, Neil de Wet, John Maindonald … (2002)
            Existing theoretical models of the potential effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases do not account for social factors such as population increase, or interactions between climate variables. Our aim was to investigate the potential effects of global climate change on human health, and in particular, on the transmission of vector-borne diseases. We modelled the reported global distribution of dengue fever on the basis of vapour pressure, which is a measure of humidity. We assessed changes in the geographical limits of dengue fever transmission, and in the number of people at risk of dengue by incorporating future climate change and human population projections into our model. We showed that the current geographical limits of dengue fever transmission can be modelled with 89% accuracy on the basis of long-term average vapour pressure. In 1990, almost 30% of the world population, 1.5 billion people, lived in regions where the estimated risk of dengue transmission was greater than 50%. With population and climate change projections for 2085, we estimate that about 5-6 billion people (50-60% of the projected global population) would be at risk of dengue transmission, compared with 3.5 billion people, or 35% of the population, if climate change did not happen. We conclude that climate change is likely to increase the area of land with a climate suitable for dengue fever transmission, and that if no other contributing factors were to change, a large proportion of the human population would then be put at risk.
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              Impact of daily temperature fluctuations on dengue virus transmission by Aedes aegypti.

              Louis Lambrechts, Krijn Paaijmans, Thanyalak Fansiri … (2011)
              Most studies on the ability of insect populations to transmit pathogens consider only constant temperatures and do not account for realistic daily temperature fluctuations that can impact vector-pathogen interactions. Here, we show that diurnal temperature range (DTR) affects two important parameters underlying dengue virus (DENV) transmission by Aedes aegypti. In two independent experiments using different DENV serotypes, mosquitoes were less susceptible to virus infection and died faster under larger DTR around the same mean temperature. Large DTR (20 °C) decreased the probability of midgut infection, but not duration of the virus extrinsic incubation period (EIP), compared with moderate DTR (10 °C) or constant temperature. A thermodynamic model predicted that at mean temperatures 18 °C, larger DTR reduces DENV transmission. The negative impact of DTR on Ae. aegypti survival indicates that large temperature fluctuations will reduce the probability of vector survival through EIP and expectation of infectious life. Seasonal variation in the amplitude of daily temperature fluctuations helps to explain seasonal forcing of DENV transmission at locations where average temperature does not vary seasonally and mosquito abundance is not associated with dengue incidence. Mosquitoes lived longer and were more likely to become infected under moderate temperature fluctuations, which is typical of the high DENV transmission season than under large temperature fluctuations, which is typical of the low DENV transmission season. Our findings reveal the importance of considering short-term temperature variations when studying DENV transmission dynamics.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Journal ID (nlm-ta): Environ Health Perspect
                Journal ID (iso-abbrev): Environ. Health Perspect
                Journal ID (publisher-id): EHP
                Title: Environmental Health Perspectives
                Publisher: National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences
                ISSN (Print): 0091-6765
                ISSN (Electronic): 1552-9924
                Publication date (Electronic): 20 September 2013
                Publication date (Print): 01 December 2013
                Volume: 121
                Issue: 11-12
                Pages: 1264-1272
                Affiliations
                [1 ]School of Geography and Development, and
                [2 ]The Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA
                Author notes
                Address correspondence to C.W. Morin, The University of Arizona, School of Geography and Development, P.O. Box 210076, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. Telephone: (603) 498-1246. E-mail: cmorin@ 123456email.arizona.edu
                Article
                Publisher ID: ehp.1306556
                DOI: 10.1289/ehp.1306556
                PMC ID: 3855512
                PubMed ID: 24058050
                SO-VID: 8c0ba722-91ed-42be-b3fa-d636a591df41
                License:

                Publication of EHP lies in the public domain and is therefore without copyright. All text from EHP may be reprinted freely. Use of materials published in EHP should be acknowledged (for example, “Reproduced with permission from Environmental Health Perspectives”); pertinent reference information should be provided for the article from which the material was reproduced. Articles from EHP, especially the News section, may contain photographs or illustrations copyrighted by other commercial organizations or individuals that may not be used without obtaining prior approval from the holder of the copyright.

                History
                Date received : 24 January 2013
                Date accepted : 18 September 2013
                Date: 20 September 2013
                Date: 01 December 2013
                Categories
                Subject: Research

                ScienceOpen disciplines: Public health
                Data availability:
                ScienceOpen disciplines: Public health

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