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      The effect of volcanic eruptions on global precipitation : VOLCANOES AND PRECIPITATION

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      Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

      Wiley-Blackwell

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          The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments

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            ENSO-like Interdecadal Variability: 1900–93

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              Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle.

              What can we say about changes in the hydrologic cycle on 50-year timescales when we cannot predict rainfall next week? Eventually, perhaps, a great deal: the overall climate response to increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases may prove much simpler and more predictable than the chaos of short-term weather. Quantifying the diversity of possible responses is essential for any objective, probability-based climate forecast, and this task will require a new generation of climate modelling experiments, systematically exploring the range of model behaviour that is consistent with observations. It will be substantially harder to quantify the range of possible changes in the hydrologic cycle than in global-mean temperature, both because the observations are less complete and because the physical constraints are weaker.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
                J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.
                Wiley-Blackwell
                2169897X
                August 27 2013
                August 27 2013
                : 118
                : 16
                : 8770-8786
                Article
                10.1002/jgrd.50678
                © 2013

                http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/tdm_license_1

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