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      Model Selection in Historical Biogeography Reveals that Founder-Event Speciation Is a Crucial Process in Island Clades

        1 , 1

      Systematic Biology

      Oxford University Press (OUP)

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          Abstract

          Founder-event speciation, where a rare jump dispersal event founds a new genetically isolated lineage, has long been considered crucial by many historical biogeographers, but its importance is disputed within the vicariance school. Probabilistic modeling of geographic range evolution creates the potential to test different biogeographical models against data using standard statistical model choice procedures, as long as multiple models are available. I re-implement the Dispersal-Extinction-Cladogenesis (DEC) model of LAGRANGE in the R package BioGeoBEARS, and modify it to create a new model, DEC + J, which adds founder-event speciation, the importance of which is governed by a new free parameter, [Formula: see text]. The identifiability of DEC and DEC + J is tested on data sets simulated under a wide range of macroevolutionary models where geography evolves jointly with lineage birth/death events. The results confirm that DEC and DEC + J are identifiable even though these models ignore the fact that molecular phylogenies are missing many cladogenesis and extinction events. The simulations also indicate that DEC will have substantially increased errors in ancestral range estimation and parameter inference when the true model includes + J. DEC and DEC + J are compared on 13 empirical data sets drawn from studies of island clades. Likelihood-ratio tests indicate that all clades reject DEC, and AICc model weights show large to overwhelming support for DEC + J, for the first time verifying the importance of founder-event speciation in island clades via statistical model choice. Under DEC + J, ancestral nodes are usually estimated to have ranges occupying only one island, rather than the widespread ancestors often favored by DEC. These results indicate that the assumptions of historical biogeography models can have large impacts on inference and require testing and comparison with statistical methods. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

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          Most cited references 43

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          Dispersal-Vicariance Analysis: A New Approach to the Quantification of Historical Biogeography

           F Ronquist (1997)
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            Nineteen Dubious Ways to Compute the Exponential of a Matrix, Twenty-Five Years Later

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              A likelihood framework for inferring the evolution of geographic range on phylogenetic trees.

              At a time when historical biogeography appears to be again expanding its scope after a period of focusing primarily on discerning area relationships using cladograms, new inference methods are needed to bring more kinds of data to bear on questions about the geographic history of lineages. Here we describe a likelihood framework for inferring the evolution of geographic range on phylogenies that models lineage dispersal and local extinction in a set of discrete areas as stochastic events in continuous time. Unlike existing methods for estimating ancestral areas, such as dispersal-vicariance analysis, this approach incorporates information on the timing of both lineage divergences and the availability of connections between areas (dispersal routes). Monte Carlo methods are used to estimate branch-specific transition probabilities for geographic ranges, enabling the likelihood of the data (observed species distributions) to be evaluated for a given phylogeny and parameterized paleogeographic model. We demonstrate how the method can be used to address two biogeographic questions: What were the ancestral geographic ranges on a phylogenetic tree? How were those ancestral ranges affected by speciation and inherited by the daughter lineages at cladogenesis events? For illustration we use hypothetical examples and an analysis of a Northern Hemisphere plant clade (Cercis), comparing and contrasting inferences to those obtained from dispersal-vicariance analysis. Although the particular model we implement is somewhat simplistic, the framework itself is flexible and could readily be modified to incorporate additional sources of information and also be extended to address other aspects of historical biogeography.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Systematic Biology
                Oxford University Press (OUP)
                1076-836X
                1063-5157
                November 2014
                November 01 2014
                August 14 2014
                November 2014
                November 01 2014
                August 14 2014
                : 63
                : 6
                : 951-970
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-3140, USA; and 2National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis and Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996-3410, USA
                Article
                10.1093/sysbio/syu056
                25123369
                © 2014

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