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      The global distribution of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus

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          Abstract

          Dengue and chikungunya are increasing global public health concerns due to their rapid geographical spread and increasing disease burden. Knowledge of the contemporary distribution of their shared vectors, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus remains incomplete and is complicated by an ongoing range expansion fuelled by increased global trade and travel. Mapping the global distribution of these vectors and the geographical determinants of their ranges is essential for public health planning. Here we compile the largest contemporary database for both species and pair it with relevant environmental variables predicting their global distribution. We show Aedes distributions to be the widest ever recorded; now extensive in all continents, including North America and Europe. These maps will help define the spatial limits of current autochthonous transmission of dengue and chikungunya viruses. It is only with this kind of rigorous entomological baseline that we can hope to project future health impacts of these viruses.

          DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08347.001

          eLife digest

          Mosquitoes spread many disease-causing viruses and parasites between people and other animals, including viral infections such as dengue and chikungunya. Both infections cause high fevers often accompanied with excruciating joint pain or other flu-like symptoms. Dengue and chikungunya have become growing public health problems over the last fifty years. Today about half of the world's population is at risk of dengue infection, while chikungunya outbreaks, which were previously limited to Africa and Asia, have recently been reported in the Caribbean, South America and Europe.

          The dengue and chikungunya viruses are transmitted between people by two species of mosquitoes called Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus. Therefore it is important to work out where these mosquito species are found around the globe to identify the areas at risk. It is also important to predict where these species could become established if they were introduced, in order to identify areas that could become at risk in the future.

          Kraemer et al. now provide updated predictions about the distribution of these two mosquito species around the globe. These predictions are based upon the most up-to-date data on the known locations of the species combined with information on environmental conditions across the globe. The updated maps show that these Aedes mosquitoes are now found across all continents, including North America and Europe.

          Aedes albopictus mosquitoes in particular are rapidly expanding their territory around the globe. Kraemer et al. used their new maps to show that, unlike in the United States, many of the areas in Europe and China that could support this mosquito species do not yet appear to have been colonized.

          These findings provide a map of the distribution of both species as it stands at the moment. Further work is now needed to better understand which factors are contributing to the rapid expansion of these mosquitoes' range and what might be done to control this spread.

          DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08347.002

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          Most cited references 138

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          Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas

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            The global distribution and burden of dengue

            Dengue is a systemic viral infection transmitted between humans by Aedes mosquitoes 1 . For some patients dengue is a life-threatening illness 2 . There are currently no licensed vaccines or specific therapeutics, and substantial vector control efforts have not stopped its rapid emergence and global spread 3 . The contemporary worldwide distribution of the risk of dengue virus infection 4 and its public health burden are poorly known 2,5 . Here we undertake an exhaustive assembly of known records of dengue occurrence worldwide, and use a formal modelling framework to map the global distribution of dengue risk. We then pair the resulting risk map with detailed longitudinal information from dengue cohort studies and population surfaces to infer the public health burden of dengue in 2010. We predict dengue to be ubiquitous throughout the tropics, with local spatial variations in risk influenced strongly by rainfall, temperature and the degree of urbanisation. Using cartographic approaches, we estimate there to be 390 million (95 percent credible interval 284-528) dengue infections per year, of which 96 million (67-136) manifest apparently (any level of clinical or sub-clinical severity). This infection total is more than three times the dengue burden estimate of the World Health Organization 2 . Stratification of our estimates by country allows comparison with national dengue reporting, after taking into account the probability of an apparent infection being formally reported. The most notable differences are discussed. These new risk maps and infection estimates provide novel insights into the global, regional and national public health burden imposed by dengue. We anticipate that they will provide a starting point for a wider discussion about the global impact of this disease and will help guide improvements in disease control strategies using vaccine, drug and vector control methods and in their economic evaluation. [285]
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              Novel methods improve prediction of species’ distributions from occurrence data

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: Reviewing editor
                Journal
                eLife
                eLife
                eLife
                eLife
                eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd
                2050-084X
                2050-084X
                30 June 2015
                2015
                : 4
                Affiliations
                [1 ]deptSpatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology , University of Oxford , Oxford, United Kingdom
                [2 ]deptWellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics , University of Oxford , Oxford, United Kingdom
                [3 ]deptDepartment of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, School of Veterinary Medicine , University of California, Davis , Davis, United States
                [4 ]deptDepartment of Microbiology, Immunology and Pathology , Colorado State University , Fort Collins, United States
                [5 ]deptNational Dengue Control Program , Ministry of Health , Brasilia, Brazil
                [6 ]European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control , Stockholm, Sweden
                [7 ]Avia-GIS , Zoersel, Belgium
                [8 ]Eijkman-Oxford Clinical Research Unit , Jakarta, Indonesia
                [9 ]deptCenter for Research, Diagnostics and Vaccine Development , Centers for Disease Control , Taipei, Taiwan
                [10 ]deptFogarty International Center , National Institutes of Health , Bethesda, United States
                [11 ]deptDepartment of Entomology and Nematology , University of California, Davis , Davis, United States
                [12 ]Sanaria Institute for Global Health and Tropical Medicine , Rockville, United States
                [13 ]deptEnvironmental Research Group Oxford, Department of Zoology , University of Oxford , Oxford, United Kingdom
                [14 ]deptInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation , University of Washington , Seattle, United States
                London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, and Public Health England , United Kingdom
                London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, and Public Health England , United Kingdom
                Author notes
                Article
                08347
                10.7554/eLife.08347
                4493616
                26126267

                This is an open-access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication.

                Product
                Funding
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004350, Studienstiftung des Deutschen Volkes;
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000865, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation;
                Award ID: #OPP1053338
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100004440, Wellcome Trust;
                Award ID: #095066
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000805, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control;
                Award ID: ECDC/09/018
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100004431, European Commission Directorate-General for Research and Innovation;
                Award ID: #21803
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000268, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC);
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000104, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA);
                Award ID: #NNX15AF36G
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000002, National Institutes of Health (NIH);
                Award ID: RAPIDD program
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000002, National Institutes of Health (NIH);
                Award ID: R01-AI069341
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000002, National Institutes of Health (NIH);
                Award ID: R01-AI091980
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000002, National Institutes of Health (NIH);
                Award ID: R01-GM08322
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000002, National Institutes of Health (NIH);
                Award ID: N01-A1-25489
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000865, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation;
                Award ID: #OPP52250
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: Sir Richard Southwood Graduate Scholarship;
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100004440, Wellcome Trust;
                Award ID: Vecnet
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100004440, Wellcome Trust;
                Award ID: #099872
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000697, The Rhodes Trust;
                Award Recipient :
                The funders had no role in study design, data collection and interpretation, or the decision to submit the work for publication.
                Categories
                Research Article
                Ecology
                Epidemiology and Global Health
                Custom metadata
                2.3
                The limits to the global distribution of the mosquitoes that transmit dengue and chikungunya have been predicted using a species distribution modelling approach.

                Life sciences

                aedes, ae. albopictus, ae. aegypti, other

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