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      Land-use emissions play a critical role in land-based mitigation for Paris climate targets

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          Abstract

          Scenarios that limit global warming to below 2 °C by 2100 assume significant land-use change to support large-scale carbon dioxide (CO 2) removal from the atmosphere by afforestation/reforestation, avoided deforestation, and Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS). The more ambitious mitigation scenarios require even greater land area for mitigation and/or earlier adoption of CO 2 removal strategies. Here we show that additional land-use change to meet a 1.5 °C climate change target could result in net losses of carbon from the land. The effectiveness of BECCS strongly depends on several assumptions related to the choice of biomass, the fate of initial above ground biomass, and the fossil-fuel emissions offset in the energy system. Depending on these factors, carbon removed from the atmosphere through BECCS could easily be offset by losses due to land-use change. If BECCS involves replacing high-carbon content ecosystems with crops, then forest-based mitigation could be more efficient for atmospheric CO 2 removal than BECCS.

          Abstract

          Land-based mitigation for meeting the Paris climate target must consider the carbon cycle impacts of land-use change. Here the authors show that when bioenergy crops replace high carbon content ecosystems, forest-based mitigation could be more effective for CO 2 removal than bioenergy crops with carbon capture and storage.

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          Most cited references 58

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          An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design

          The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) will produce a state-of-the- art multimodel dataset designed to advance our knowledge of climate variability and climate change. Researchers worldwide are analyzing the model output and will produce results likely to underlie the forthcoming Fifth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Unprecedented in scale and attracting interest from all major climate modeling groups, CMIP5 includes “long term” simulations of twentieth-century climate and projections for the twenty-first century and beyond. Conventional atmosphere–ocean global climate models and Earth system models of intermediate complexity are for the first time being joined by more recently developed Earth system models under an experiment design that allows both types of models to be compared to observations on an equal footing. Besides the longterm experiments, CMIP5 calls for an entirely new suite of “near term” simulations focusing on recent decades and the future to year 2035. These “decadal predictions” are initialized based on observations and will be used to explore the predictability of climate and to assess the forecast system's predictive skill. The CMIP5 experiment design also allows for participation of stand-alone atmospheric models and includes a variety of idealized experiments that will improve understanding of the range of model responses found in the more complex and realistic simulations. An exceptionally comprehensive set of model output is being collected and made freely available to researchers through an integrated but distributed data archive. For researchers unfamiliar with climate models, the limitations of the models and experiment design are described.
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            Improvements of the MODIS terrestrial gross and net primary production global data set

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              Carbon balance of the terrestrial biosphere in the Twentieth Century: Analyses of CO2, climate and land use effects with four process-based ecosystem models

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                a.harper@exeter.ac.uk
                Journal
                Nat Commun
                Nat Commun
                Nature Communications
                Nature Publishing Group UK (London )
                2041-1723
                7 August 2018
                7 August 2018
                2018
                : 9
                Affiliations
                [1 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1936 8024, GRID grid.8391.3, College of Engineering, Mathematics, and Physical Sciences, , University of Exeter, ; Exeter, EX4 4QF UK
                [2 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1936 8024, GRID grid.8391.3, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, , University of Exeter, ; Exeter, EX4 4QF UK
                [3 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1936 7603, GRID grid.5337.2, School of Geographical Sciences, , University of Bristol, ; Bristol, BS8 1SS UK
                [4 ]ISNI 0000000094781573, GRID grid.8682.4, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, ; Wallingford, OX10 8BB UK
                [5 ]ISNI 0000000405133830, GRID grid.17100.37, Met Office Hadley Centre, ; FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB UK
                [6 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1936 8403, GRID grid.9909.9, University of Leeds, ; Leeds, LS2 9JT UK
                [7 ]ISNI 0000 0004 0457 9566, GRID grid.9435.b, Department of Meteorology, , University of Reading, ; Reading, RG6 6BB UK
                [8 ]ISNI 0000 0001 0616 8355, GRID grid.437426.0, Department of Climate, Air and Energy, , Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), ; PO Box 30314, 2500 GH The Hague, Netherlands
                [9 ]ISNI 0000000120346234, GRID grid.5477.1, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, , Utrecht University, ; Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands
                [10 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1936 973X, GRID grid.5252.0, Department of Geography, , Ludwig Maximilians University Munich, ; Luisenstr. 37, 80333 Munich, Germany
                [11 ]ISNI 0000 0004 4910 6535, GRID grid.460789.4, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, , Université Paris-Saclay, ; 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
                [12 ]ISNI 0000 0001 0721 4552, GRID grid.450268.d, The Land in the Earth System, , Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, ; Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
                [13 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1936 9991, GRID grid.35403.31, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, , University of Illinois, ; Urbana, IL 61801 USA
                [14 ]Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research—Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Kreuzeckbahnstr. 19, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, 82467 Germany
                [15 ]NASA GSFC, Biospheric Sciences Lab., Greenbelt, MD 20771 USA
                Article
                5340
                10.1038/s41467-018-05340-z
                6081380
                30087330
                © The Author(s) 2018

                Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

                Funding
                Funded by: FundRef https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000266, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC);
                Award ID: EP/N030141/1
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000270, Natural Environment Research Council (NERC);
                Award ID: NE/P014941/1
                Award ID: NE/P014941/1
                Award ID: NE/P014941/1
                Award ID: NE/P014941/1
                Award ID: NE/P014941/1
                Award ID: NE/P019951/1
                Award ID: NE/P014941/1
                Award ID: NE/P015050/1
                Award ID: NE/P014909/1
                Award ID: NE/P015050/1
                Award ID: NE/P015050/1
                Award ID: NE/P014909/1
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef https://doi.org/10.13039/501100004963, EC | Seventh Framework Programme (European Union Seventh Framework Programme);
                Award ID: GA603542
                Award ID: GA603542
                Award ID: GA603542
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef https://doi.org/10.13039/501100007601, EC | Horizon 2020 (European Union Framework Programme for Research and Innovation);
                Award ID: 641816
                Award ID: 641816
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef https://doi.org/10.13039/100000001, National Science Foundation (NSF);
                Award ID: NSF-AGS-12-43071
                Award ID: NSF-AGS-12-43071
                Award Recipient :
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