Modelling disease outbreaks in realistic urban social networks

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Abstract

Most mathematical models for the spread of disease use differential equations based on uniform mixing assumptions or ad hoc models for the contact process. Here we explore the use of dynamic bipartite graphs to model the physical contact patterns that result from movements of individuals between specific locations. The graphs are generated by large-scale individual-based urban traffic simulations built on actual census, land-use and population-mobility data. We find that the contact network among people is a strongly connected small-world-like graph with a well-defined scale for the degree distribution. However, the locations graph is scale-free, which allows highly efficient outbreak detection by placing sensors in the hubs of the locations network. Within this large-scale simulation framework, we then analyse the relative merits of several proposed mitigation strategies for smallpox spread. Our results suggest that outbreaks can be contained by a strategy of targeted vaccination combined with early detection without resorting to mass vaccination of a population.

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Most cited references 16

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Assortative Mixing in Networks

M. Newman (2002)

A network is said to show assortative mixing if the nodes in the network that have many connections tend to be connected to other nodes with many connections. Here we measure mixing patterns in a variety of networks and find that social networks are mostly assortatively mixed, but that technological and biological networks tend to be disassortative. We propose a model of an assortatively mixed network, which we study both analytically and numerically. Within this model we find that networks percolate more easily if they are assortative and that they are also more robust to vertex removal.

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Immunization of complex networks.

Alessandro Vespignani, Romualdo Pastor-Satorras (2002)

Complex networks such as the sexual partnership web or the Internet often show a high degree of redundancy and heterogeneity in their connectivity properties. This peculiar connectivity provides an ideal environment for the spreading of infective agents. Here we show that the random uniform immunization of individuals does not lead to the eradication of infections in all complex networks. Namely, networks with scale-free properties do not acquire global immunity from major epidemic outbreaks even in the presence of unrealistically high densities of randomly immunized individuals. The absence of any critical immunization threshold is due to the unbounded connectivity fluctuations of scale-free networks. Successful immunization strategies can be developed only by taking into account the inhomogeneous connectivity properties of scale-free networks. In particular, targeted immunization schemes, based on the nodes' connectivity hierarchy, sharply lower the network's vulnerability to epidemic attacks.

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Individual-based perspectives on R(0).

Kim M Keeling, B Grenfell (2000)

Without doubt the basic reproductive ratio, R(0), is the most widely used quantity in epidemic theory. Standard compartmental models show how R(0)is related to the average age of infection, vaccination thresholds for eradication and equilibrium solutions. However, many of the basic formulae for R(0)break down when we consider transmission of infection to be a stochastic process involving discrete individuals. This paper clarifies why and when these differences arise and predicts when individual-based considerations are likely to be important in modelling infection dynamics.