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      Spatial analysis and prediction of COVID-19 spread in South Africa after lockdown

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          Abstract

          What is the impact of COVID-19 on South Africa? This paper envisages assisting researchers and decision-makers in battling the COVID-19 pandemic focusing on South Africa. This paper focuses on the spread of the disease by applying heatmap retrieval of hotspot areas and spatial analysis is carried out using the Moran index. For capturing spatial autocorrelation between the provinces of South Africa, the adjacent, as well as the geographical distance measures, are used as a weight matrix for both absolute and relative counts. Furthermore, generalized logistic growth curve modeling is used for the prediction of the COVID-19 spread. We expect this data-driven modeling to provide some insights into hotspot identification and timeous action controlling the spread of the virus.

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          Author and article information

          Journal
          19 May 2020
          Article
          2005.09596

          http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/

          Custom metadata
          16 pages, 9 Figures, 3 Tables
          physics.soc-ph stat.ME

          General physics, Methodology

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