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      Effects of weather variation on waterfowl migration: Lessons from a continental‐scale generalizable avian movement and energetics model

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          Abstract

          We developed a continental energetics‐based model of daily mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos) movement during the non‐breeding period (September to May) to predict year‐specific migration and overwinter occurrence. The model approximates movements and stopovers as functions of metabolism and weather, in terms of temperature and frozen precipitation (i.e., snow). The model is a Markov process operating at the population level and is parameterized through a review of literature. We applied the model to 62 years of daily weather data for the non‐breeding period. The average proportion of available habitat decreased as weather severity increased, with mortality decreasing as the proportion of available habitat increased. The most commonly used locations during the course of the non‐breeding period were generally consistent across years, with the most inter‐annual variation present in the overwintering area. Our model revealed that the distribution of mallards on the landscape changed more dramatically when the variation in daily available habitat was greater. The main routes for avian migration in North America were predicted by our simulations: the Atlantic, Mississippi, Central, and Pacific flyways. Our model predicted an average of 77.4% survivorship for the non‐breeding period across all years (range = 76.4%–78.4%), with lowest survivorship during autumn (90.5 ± 1.4%), intermediate survivorship in winter (91.8 ± 0.7%), and greatest survivorship in spring (93.6 ± 1.1%). We provide the parameters necessary for exploration within and among other taxa to leverage the generalizability of this migration model to a broader expanse of bird species, and across a range of climate change and land use/land cover change scenarios.

          Abstract

          We present a model of waterfowl movement in North America during the non‐breeding period of their annual cycle. The model is based on the energetic relationships among flight dynamics and environmental conditions. We found levels of mortality commensurate with past studies (~77% across the non‐breeding period) and that habitat available for waterfowl use (based on a weather severity metric) has increased from 1957 to the present.

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          Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change

          Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups. These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research. Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change. Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected. Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming. Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species' ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins. Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level.
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            Welcome to the Tidyverse

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              Ecological responses to recent climate change.

              There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                kevin.j.aagaard@gmail.com
                Journal
                Ecol Evol
                Ecol Evol
                10.1002/(ISSN)2045-7758
                ECE3
                Ecology and Evolution
                John Wiley and Sons Inc. (Hoboken )
                2045-7758
                17 February 2022
                February 2022
                : 12
                : 2 ( doiID: 10.1002/ece3.v12.2 )
                Affiliations
                [ 1 ] Colorado Parks and Wildlife Fort Collins Colorado USA
                [ 2 ] Institute on the Environment University of Minnesota St. Paul Minnesota USA
                [ 3 ] U.S. Geological Survey Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center La Crosse Wisconsin USA
                Author notes
                [*] [* ] Correspondence

                Kevin J. Aagaard, Colorado Parks and Wildlife, 317 West Prospect Road, Fort Collins, CO 80526, USA.

                Email: kevin.j.aagaard@ 123456gmail.com

                Article
                ECE38617
                10.1002/ece3.8617
                8853969
                911f931a-b9b4-495f-bbb9-c9ae60b607a0
                © 2022 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

                This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

                Page count
                Figures: 11, Tables: 2, Pages: 17, Words: 13750
                Product
                Categories
                Biogeography
                Conservation Ecology
                Demography
                Ecophysiology
                Ecosystem Ecology
                Global Change Ecology
                Landscape Ecology
                Movement Ecology
                Phenology
                Population Ecology
                Spatial Ecology
                Theorectical Ecology
                Research Article
                Research Articles
                Custom metadata
                2.0
                February 2022
                Converter:WILEY_ML3GV2_TO_JATSPMC version:6.1.1 mode:remove_FC converted:17.02.2022

                Evolutionary Biology
                avian,energetics,global climate change,migration,predictive modeling,waterfowl
                Evolutionary Biology
                avian, energetics, global climate change, migration, predictive modeling, waterfowl

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