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      Flare Forecasting Using the Evolution of McIntosh Sunspot Classifications

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          Abstract

          Most solar flares originate in sunspot groups, where magnetic field changes lead to energy build-up and release. However, few flare-forecasting methods use information of sunspot-group evolution, instead focusing on static point-in-time observations. Here, a new forecast method is presented based upon the 24-hr evolution in McIntosh classification of sunspot groups. Evolution-dependent \(\geqslant\)C1.0 and \(\geqslant\)M1.0 flaring rates are found from NOAA-numbered sunspot groups over December 1988 to June 1996 (Solar Cycle 22; SC22) before converting to probabilities assuming Poisson statistics. These flaring probabilities are used to generate operational forecasts for sunspot groups over July 1996 to December 2008 (SC23), with performance studied by verification metrics. Major findings are: i) considering Brier skill score (BSS) for \(\geqslant\)C1.0 flares, the evolution-dependent McIntosh-Poisson method (\(\text{BSS}_{\text{evolution}}=0.09\)) performs better than the static McIntosh-Poisson method (\(\text{BSS}_{\text{static}} = -0.09\)); ii) low BSS values arise partly from both methods over-forecasting SC23 flares from the SC22 rates, symptomatic of \(\geqslant\)C1.0 rates in SC23 being on average \(\approx\)80% of those in SC22 (with \(\geqslant\)M1.0 being \(\approx\)50%); iii) applying a bias-correction factor to reduce the SC22 rates used in forecasting SC23 flares yields modest improvement in skill relative to climatology for both methods (\(\mathrm{BSS}^{\mathrm{corr}}_{\mathrm{static}} = 0.09\) and \(\mathrm{BSS}^{\mathrm{corr}}_{\mathrm{evolution}} = 0.20\)) and improved forecast reliability diagrams.

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          The magnetic nature of solar flares

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            The Magnetic Polarity of Sun-Spots

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              The classification of sunspot groups

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                02 May 2018
                Article
                1805.00919
                9121dbdd-9403-46b9-98e6-97000eb1e72e

                http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

                History
                Custom metadata
                21 pages, 9 figures
                astro-ph.SR

                Solar & Stellar astrophysics
                Solar & Stellar astrophysics

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