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Type 2 diabetes and incidence of cardiovascular diseases: a cohort study in 1·9 million people

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      The contemporary associations of type 2 diabetes with a wide range of incident cardiovascular diseases have not been compared. We aimed to study associations between type 2 diabetes and 12 initial manifestations of cardiovascular disease.


      We used linked primary care, hospital admission, disease registry, and death certificate records from the CALIBER programme, which links data for people in England recorded in four electronic health data sources. We included people who were (or turned) 30 years or older between Jan 1, 1998, to March 25, 2010, who were free from cardiovascular disease at baseline. The primary endpoint was the first record of one of 12 cardiovascular presentations in any of the data sources. We compared cumulative incidence curves for the initial presentation of cardiovascular disease and used Cox models to estimate cause-specific hazard ratios (HRs). This study is registered at (NCT01804439).


      Our cohort consisted of 1 921 260 individuals, of whom 1 887 062 (98·2%) did not have diabetes and 34 198 (1·8%) had type 2 diabetes. We observed 113 638 first presentations of cardiovascular disease during a median follow-up of 5·5 years (IQR 2·1–10·1). Of people with type 2 diabetes, 6137 (17·9%) had a first cardiovascular presentation, the most common of which were peripheral arterial disease (reported in 992 [16·2%] of 6137 patients) and heart failure (866 [14·1%] of 6137 patients). Type 2 diabetes was positively associated with peripheral arterial disease (adjusted HR 2·98 [95% CI 2·76–3·22]), ischaemic stroke (1·72 [1·52–1·95]), stable angina (1·62 [1·49–1·77]), heart failure (1·56 [1·45–1·69]), and non-fatal myocardial infarction (1·54 [1·42–1·67]), but was inversely associated with abdominal aortic aneurysm (0·46 [0·35–0·59]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage (0·48 [0·26–0.89]), and not associated with arrhythmia or sudden cardiac death (0·95 [0·76–1·19]).


      Heart failure and peripheral arterial disease are the most common initial manifestations of cardiovascular disease in type 2 diabetes. The differences between relative risks of different cardiovascular diseases in patients with type 2 diabetes have implications for clinical risk assessment and trial design.


      Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health Research, and Medical Research Council.

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      Most cited references 29

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      Diagnosis and classification of diabetes mellitus.

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        Diabetes mellitus, fasting blood glucose concentration, and risk of vascular disease: a collaborative meta-analysis of 102 prospective studies

        Summary Background Uncertainties persist about the magnitude of associations of diabetes mellitus and fasting glucose concentration with risk of coronary heart disease and major stroke subtypes. We aimed to quantify these associations for a wide range of circumstances. Methods We undertook a meta-analysis of individual records of diabetes, fasting blood glucose concentration, and other risk factors in people without initial vascular disease from studies in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. We combined within-study regressions that were adjusted for age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, and body-mass index to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for vascular disease. Findings Analyses included data for 698 782 people (52 765 non-fatal or fatal vascular outcomes; 8·49 million person-years at risk) from 102 prospective studies. Adjusted HRs with diabetes were: 2·00 (95% CI 1·83–2·19) for coronary heart disease; 2·27 (1·95–2·65) for ischaemic stroke; 1·56 (1·19–2·05) for haemorrhagic stroke; 1·84 (1·59–2·13) for unclassified stroke; and 1·73 (1·51–1·98) for the aggregate of other vascular deaths. HRs did not change appreciably after further adjustment for lipid, inflammatory, or renal markers. HRs for coronary heart disease were higher in women than in men, at 40–59 years than at 70 years and older, and with fatal than with non-fatal disease. At an adult population-wide prevalence of 10%, diabetes was estimated to account for 11% (10–12%) of vascular deaths. Fasting blood glucose concentration was non-linearly related to vascular risk, with no significant associations between 3·90 mmol/L and 5·59 mmol/L. Compared with fasting blood glucose concentrations of 3·90–5·59 mmol/L, HRs for coronary heart disease were: 1·07 (0·97–1·18) for lower than 3·90 mmol/L; 1·11 (1·04–1·18) for 5·60–6·09 mmol/L; and 1·17 (1·08–1·26) for 6·10–6·99 mmol/L. In people without a history of diabetes, information about fasting blood glucose concentration or impaired fasting glucose status did not significantly improve metrics of vascular disease prediction when added to information about several conventional risk factors. Interpretation Diabetes confers about a two-fold excess risk for a wide range of vascular diseases, independently from other conventional risk factors. In people without diabetes, fasting blood glucose concentration is modestly and non-linearly associated with risk of vascular disease. Funding British Heart Foundation, UK Medical Research Council, and Pfizer.
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          Saxagliptin and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

          The cardiovascular safety and efficacy of many current antihyperglycemic agents, including saxagliptin, a dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP-4) inhibitor, are unclear. We randomly assigned 16,492 patients with type 2 diabetes who had a history of, or were at risk for, cardiovascular events to receive saxagliptin or placebo and followed them for a median of 2.1 years. Physicians were permitted to adjust other medications, including antihyperglycemic agents. The primary end point was a composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or ischemic stroke. A primary end-point event occurred in 613 patients in the saxagliptin group and in 609 patients in the placebo group (7.3% and 7.2%, respectively, according to 2-year Kaplan-Meier estimates; hazard ratio with saxagliptin, 1.00; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.89 to 1.12; P=0.99 for superiority; P<0.001 for noninferiority); the results were similar in the "on-treatment" analysis (hazard ratio, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.91 to 1.17). The major secondary end point of a composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, hospitalization for unstable angina, coronary revascularization, or heart failure occurred in 1059 patients in the saxagliptin group and in 1034 patients in the placebo group (12.8% and 12.4%, respectively, according to 2-year Kaplan-Meier estimates; hazard ratio, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.94 to 1.11; P=0.66). More patients in the saxagliptin group than in the placebo group were hospitalized for heart failure (3.5% vs. 2.8%; hazard ratio, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.51; P=0.007). Rates of adjudicated cases of acute and chronic pancreatitis were similar in the two groups (acute pancreatitis, 0.3% in the saxagliptin group and 0.2% in the placebo group; chronic pancreatitis, <0.1% and 0.1% in the two groups, respectively). DPP-4 inhibition with saxagliptin did not increase or decrease the rate of ischemic events, though the rate of hospitalization for heart failure was increased. Although saxagliptin improves glycemic control, other approaches are necessary to reduce cardiovascular risk in patients with diabetes. (Funded by AstraZeneca and Bristol-Myers Squibb; SAVOR-TIMI 53 number, NCT01107886.).

            Author and article information

            [a ]Farr Institute of Health Informatics Research at London, London, UK
            [b ]Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College London, London, UK
            [c ]MRC Epidemiology Unit, Institute of Metabolic Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
            [d ]Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
            [e ]National Institute of Cardiovascular Outcomes Research, University College London, London, UK
            [f ]Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
            [g ]Barts and the London National Institute for Health Research Cardiovascular Biomedical Research Unit, Queen Mary, University of London, London, UK
            Author notes
            [* ]Correspondence to: Dr Anoop Dinesh Shah, Farr Institute of Health Informatics Research at London, University College London, London NW1 2DA, UK anoop@
            Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol
            Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol
            The Lancet. Diabetes & Endocrinology
            The Lancet, Diabetes & Endocrinology
            1 February 2015
            February 2015
            : 3
            : 2
            : 105-113
            25466521 4303913 S2213-8587(14)70219-0 10.1016/S2213-8587(14)70219-0
            © 2015 Shah et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY

            This document may be redistributed and reused, subject to certain conditions.



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