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      Unemployment Effects of Stay-at-Home Orders: Evidence from High Frequency Claims Data

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          Abstract

          We use the high-frequency, decentralized implementation of Stay-at-Home orders in the U.S. to disentangle the labor market effects of SAH orders from the general economic disruption wrought by the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that each week of SAH exposure increased a state's weekly initial unemployment insurance (UI) claims by 1.9% of its employment level relative to other states. A back-of-the-envelope calculation implies that, of the 17 million UI claims between March 14 and April 4, only 4 million were attributable to SAH orders. We present a currency union model to provide conditions for mapping this estimate to aggregate employment losses.

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          Author and article information

          Journal
          The Review of Economics and Statistics
          Review of Economics and Statistics
          MIT Press - Journals
          0034-6535
          1530-9142
          October 30 2020
          : 1-72
          Affiliations
          [1 ]UC-Berkeley, Department of Economics, Evans Hall, Office 642
          [2 ]UC-Berkeley, Department of Economics, Evans Hall, Office 642
          Article
          10.1162/rest_a_00996
          917449ac-21ae-48cf-9766-e547e27371e9
          © 2020
          History

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