We assessed the value of urinary neopterin concentrations for prognosis of disease progression in HIV-1-infected patients. Sixty-eight anti-HIV-1 seropositive homosexuals with lymphadenopathy syndrome were tested for urinary neopterin and T-cell subset counts in 1982-83, and the incidence rate at which they developed acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) between then and May 1988 was evaluated. Overall, 21 of 68 (30.9%) cases progressed to AIDS, with a yearly progression rate of 4-9%. The predictive value of urinary neopterin concentrations was higher (P = 0.0042) than that of CD4+ T-cell counts (P = 0.015) or the CD4+/CD8+ T-cell ratio (P = 0.022). Counts of CD8+ T-cells failed to show predictive significance (P = 0.29). Similarly, multivariate-regression analysis indicated that neopterin concentrations and CD4+ T-cell numbers were significant copredictors. Produced by human macrophages activated by interferon gamma, neopterin is thus a marker of macrophage activation via T cells. We conclude that these data demonstrate a correlation between the amount of T-cell-macrophage activation, as measured by urinary neopterin concentrations, and the progression of the disease.
