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      Food for thought: lower-than-expected crop yield stimulation with rising CO2 concentrations.

      Science (New York, N.Y.)

      growth & development, metabolism, Crops, Agricultural, Fertilizers, Forecasting, Carbon Dioxide, Meta-Analysis as Topic, Nitrogen, Ozone, Photosynthesis, Poaceae, Sorghum, Soybeans, Temperature, Triticum, Water, Zea mays, Atmosphere, Biomass

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          Abstract

          Model projections suggest that although increased temperature and decreased soil moisture will act to reduce global crop yields by 2050, the direct fertilization effect of rising carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) will offset these losses. The CO2 fertilization factors used in models to project future yields were derived from enclosure studies conducted approximately 20 years ago. Free-air concentration enrichment (FACE) technology has now facilitated large-scale trials of the major grain crops at elevated [CO2] under fully open-air field conditions. In those trials, elevated [CO2] enhanced yield by approximately 50% less than in enclosure studies. This casts serious doubt on projections that rising [CO2] will fully offset losses due to climate change.

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          Author and article information

          Journal
          10.1126/science.1114722
          16809532

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