Comparison of PAM50 Risk of Recurrence Score With Oncotype DX and IHC4 for Predicting Risk of Distant Recurrence After Endocrine Therapy

The 21-gene recurrence score (RS) assay quantifies the likelihood of distant recurrence in women with estrogen receptor-positive, lymph node-negative breast cancer treated with adjuvant tamoxifen. The relationship between the RS and chemotherapy benefit is not known. The RS was measured in tumors from the tamoxifen-treated and tamoxifen plus chemotherapy-treated patients in the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project (NSABP) B20 trial. Cox proportional hazards models were utilized to test for interaction between chemotherapy treatment and the RS. A total of 651 patients were assessable (227 randomly assigned to tamoxifen and 424 randomly assigned to tamoxifen plus chemotherapy). The test for interaction between chemotherapy treatment and RS was statistically significant (P = .038). Patients with high-RS (> or = 31) tumors (ie, high risk of recurrence) had a large benefit from chemotherapy (relative risk, 0.26; 95% CI, 0.13 to 0.53; absolute decrease in 10-year distant recurrence rate: mean, 27.6%; SE, 8.0%). Patients with low-RS (< 18) tumors derived minimal, if any, benefit from chemotherapy treatment (relative risk, 1.31; 95% CI, 0.46 to 3.78; absolute decrease in distant recurrence rate at 10 years: mean, -1.1%; SE, 2.2%). Patients with intermediate-RS tumors did not appear to have a large benefit, but the uncertainty in the estimate can not exclude a clinically important benefit. The RS assay not only quantifies the likelihood of breast cancer recurrence in women with node-negative, estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer, but also predicts the magnitude of chemotherapy benefit.

The 21-gene recurrence score assay is prognostic for women with node-negative, oestrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer treated with tamoxifen. A low recurrence score predicts little benefit of chemotherapy. For node-positive breast cancer, we investigated whether the recurrence score was prognostic in women treated with tamoxifen alone and whether it identified those who might not benefit from anthracycline-based chemotherapy, despite higher risks of recurrence. The phase 3 trial SWOG-8814 for postmenopausal women with node-positive, oestrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer showed that chemotherapy with cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, and fluorouracil (CAF) before tamoxifen (CAF-T) added survival benefit to treatment with tamoxifen alone. Optional tumour banking yielded specimens for determination of recurrence score by RT-PCR. In this retrospective analysis, we assessed the effect of recurrence score on disease-free survival by treatment group (tamoxifen vs CAF-T) using Cox regression, adjusting for number of positive nodes. There were 367 specimens (40% of the 927 patients in the tamoxifen and CAF-T groups) with sufficient RNA for analysis (tamoxifen, n=148; CAF-T, n=219). The recurrence score was prognostic in the tamoxifen-alone group (p=0.006; hazard ratio [HR] 2.64, 95% CI 1.33-5.27, for a 50-point difference in recurrence score). There was no benefit of CAF in patients with a low recurrence score (score or =31; log-rank p=0.033; HR 0.59, 0.35-1.01), after adjustment for number of positive nodes. The recurrence score by treatment interaction was significant in the first 5 years (p=0.029), with no additional prediction beyond 5 years (p=0.58), although the cumulative benefit remained at 10 years. Results were similar for overall survival and breast-cancer-specific survival. The recurrence score is prognostic for tamoxifen-treated patients with positive nodes and predicts significant benefit of CAF in tumours with a high recurrence score. A low recurrence score identifies women who might not benefit from anthracycline-based chemotherapy, despite positive nodes. National Cancer Institute and Genomic Health. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

To compare clinical, immunohistochemical (IHC), and gene expression models of prognosis applicable to formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded blocks in a large series of estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancers from patients uniformly treated with adjuvant tamoxifen. Quantitative real-time reverse transcription-PCR (qRT-PCR) assays for 50 genes identifying intrinsic breast cancer subtypes were completed on 786 specimens linked to clinical (median follow-up, 11.7 years) and IHC [ER, progesterone receptor (PR), HER2, and Ki67] data. Performance of predefined intrinsic subtype and risk-of-relapse scores was assessed using multivariable Cox models and Kaplan-Meier analysis. Harrell's C-index was used to compare fixed models trained in independent data sets, including proliferation signatures. Despite clinical ER positivity, 10% of cases were assigned to nonluminal subtypes. qRT-PCR signatures for proliferation genes gave more prognostic information than clinical assays for hormone receptors or Ki67. In Cox models incorporating standard prognostic variables, hazard ratios for breast cancer disease-specific survival over the first 5 years of follow-up, relative to the most common luminal A subtype, are 1.99 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.09-3.64] for luminal B, 3.65 (95% CI, 1.64-8.16) for HER2-enriched subtype, and 17.71 (95% CI, 1.71-183.33) for the basal-like subtype. For node-negative disease, PAM50 qRT-PCR-based risk assignment weighted for tumor size and proliferation identifies a group with >95% 10-year survival without chemotherapy. In node-positive disease, PAM50-based prognostic models were also superior. The PAM50 gene expression test for intrinsic biological subtype can be applied to large series of formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded breast cancers, and gives more prognostic information than clinical factors and IHC using standard cut points. ©2010 AACR.