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      Myocardial Scar and Mortality in Chronic Aortic Regurgitation

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          Abstract

          Background

          Chronic aortic regurgitation (AR) can be associated with myocardial scarring. It is unknown if scarring in AR is linked to poor outcomes and whether aortic valve replacement impacts this association. We investigated the relationship of myocardial scarring to mortality in chronic AR using cardiac magnetic resonance.

          Methods and Results

          We enrolled patients with moderate or greater AR between 2009 and 2019 and performed a blinded assessment of left ventricle remodeling, AR severity, and presence and extent of myocardial scarring by late gadolinium enhancement. The primary outcome was all‐cause mortality. We followed 392 patients (median age 62 [interquartile range, 51–71] years), and 78.1% were men, and 25.8% had bicuspid valves. Median aortic valve regurgitant volume was 39 mL (interquartile range, 30–60). Myocardial scar was present in 131 (33.4%) patients. Aortic valve replacement was performed in 165 (49.1%) patients. During follow‐up, up to 10.8 years (median 32.3 months [interquartile range, 9.8–69.5]), 51 patients (13%) died. Presence of myocardial scar (hazard ratio [HR], 3.62; 95% CI, 2.06–6.36; P<0.001), infarction scar (HR, 4.94; 95% CI, 2.58–9.48; P<0.001), and noninfarction scar (HR, 2.75; 95% CI, 1.39–5.44; P<0.004) were associated with mortality. In multivariable analysis, the presence of scar remained independently associated with death (HR, 2.53; 95% CI, 1.15–5.57; P=0.02). Among patients with myocardial scar, aortic valve replacement was independently associated with a lower risk of mortality (HR, 0.34; 95% CI, 0.12–0.97; P=0.03), even after adjustment for confounders.

          Conclusions

          In aortic regurgitation, myocardial scar is independently associated with a 2.5‐fold increase risk in mortality. Aortic valve replacement was associated with a reduction in risk of mortality in patients with scarring.

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          Most cited references38

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          Multivariable prognostic models: issues in developing models, evaluating assumptions and adequacy, and measuring and reducing errors.

          Multivariable regression models are powerful tools that are used frequently in studies of clinical outcomes. These models can use a mixture of categorical and continuous variables and can handle partially observed (censored) responses. However, uncritical application of modelling techniques can result in models that poorly fit the dataset at hand, or, even more likely, inaccurately predict outcomes on new subjects. One must know how to measure qualities of a model's fit in order to avoid poorly fitted or overfitted models. Measurement of predictive accuracy can be difficult for survival time data in the presence of censoring. We discuss an easily interpretable index of predictive discrimination as well as methods for assessing calibration of predicted survival probabilities. Both types of predictive accuracy should be unbiasedly validated using bootstrapping or cross-validation, before using predictions in a new data series. We discuss some of the hazards of poorly fitted and overfitted regression models and present one modelling strategy that avoids many of the problems discussed. The methods described are applicable to all regression models, but are particularly needed for binary, ordinal, and time-to-event outcomes. Methods are illustrated with a survival analysis in prostate cancer using Cox regression.
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            Recommendations for Noninvasive Evaluation of Native Valvular Regurgitation: A Report from the American Society of Echocardiography Developed in Collaboration with the Society for Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance.

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              Burden of valvular heart diseases: a population-based study.

              Valvular heart diseases are not usually regarded as a major public-health problem. Our aim was to assess their prevalence and effect on overall survival in the general population. We pooled population-based studies to obtain data for 11 911 randomly selected adults from the general population who had been assessed prospectively with echocardiography. We also analysed data from a community study of 16 501 adults who had been assessed by clinically indicated echocardiography. In the general population group, moderate or severe valve disease was identified in 615 adults. There was no difference in the frequency of such diseases between men and women (p=0.90). Prevalence increased with age, from 0.7% (95% CI 0.5-1.0) in 18-44 year olds to 13.3% (11.7-15.0) in the 75 years and older group (p<0.0001). The national prevalence of valve disease, corrected for age and sex distribution from the US 2000 population, is 2.5% (2.2-2.7). In the community group, valve disease was diagnosed in 1505 (1.8% adjusted) adults and frequency increased considerably with age, from 0.3% (0.2-0.3) of the 18-44 year olds to 11.7% (11.0-12.5) of those aged 75 years and older, but was diagnosed less often in women than in men (odds ratio 0.90, 0.81-1.01; p=0.07). The adjusted mortality risk ratio associated with valve disease was 1.36 (1.15-1.62; p=0.0005) in the population and 1.75 (1.61-1.90; p<0.0001) in the community. Moderate or severe valvular diseases are notably common in this population and increase with age. In the community, women are less often diagnosed than are men, which could indicate an important imbalance in view of the associated lower survival. Valve diseases thus represent an important public-health problem.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                djshah@houstonmethodist.org
                Journal
                J Am Heart Assoc
                J Am Heart Assoc
                10.1002/(ISSN)2047-9980
                JAH3
                ahaoa
                Journal of the American Heart Association: Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease
                John Wiley and Sons Inc. (Hoboken )
                2047-9980
                26 November 2020
                01 December 2020
                : 9
                : 23 ( doiID: 10.1002/jah3.v9.23 )
                : e018731
                Affiliations
                [ 1 ] Houston Methodist DeBakey Heart & Vascular Center Houston TX
                [ 2 ] Department of Pathology and Genomic Medicine Houston Methodist Hospital Research Institute Houston TX
                Author notes
                [*] [* ] Correspondence to: Dipan J. Shah, MD, FACC, Cardiovascular MRI Laboratory, Division of Cardiovascular Imaging, Houston Methodist DeBakey Heart & Vascular Center, 6550 Fannin Street, Smith Tower–Suite 1801, Houston, TX 77030. E‐mail: djshah@ 123456houstonmethodist.org

                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2701-8783
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5059-4404
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1024-5813
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4911-8056
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6179-2393
                Article
                JAH35714
                10.1161/JAHA.120.018731
                7763777
                33241753
                934849ff-426d-45d2-9152-fde95bfabd91
                © 2020 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

                This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non‐commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.

                History
                : 06 August 2020
                : 19 October 2020
                Page count
                Figures: 4, Tables: 3, Pages: 11, Words: 7704
                Categories
                Original Research
                Original Research
                Valvular Heart Disease
                Custom metadata
                2.0
                01 December 2020
                Converter:WILEY_ML3GV2_TO_JATSPMC version:5.9.4 mode:remove_FC converted:28.11.2020

                Cardiovascular Medicine
                aortic regurgitation,aortic valve replacement,cardiac magnetic resonance,myocardial scar,magnetic resonance imaging (mri),prognosis,valvular heart disease,clinical studies

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