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      Possible scenarios for occurrence of M ~ 7 interplate earthquakes prior to and following the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake based on numerical simulation

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          Abstract

          We show possible scenarios for the occurrence of M ~ 7 interplate earthquakes prior to and following the M ~ 9 earthquake along the Japan Trench, such as the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. One such M ~ 7 earthquake is so-called the Miyagi-ken-Oki earthquake, for which we conducted numerical simulations of earthquake generation cycles by using realistic three-dimensional (3D) geometry of the subducting Pacific Plate. In a number of scenarios, the time interval between the M ~ 9 earthquake and the subsequent Miyagi-ken-Oki earthquake was equal to or shorter than the average recurrence interval during the later stage of the M ~ 9 earthquake cycle. The scenarios successfully reproduced important characteristics such as the recurrence of M ~ 7 earthquakes, coseismic slip distribution, afterslip distribution, the largest foreshock, and the largest aftershock of the 2011 earthquake. Thus, these results suggest that we should prepare for future M ~ 7 earthquakes in the Miyagi-ken-Oki segment even though this segment recently experienced large coseismic slip in 2011.

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          Shallow dynamic overshoot and energetic deep rupture in the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake.

          Strong spatial variation of rupture characteristics in the moment magnitude (M(w)) 9.0 Tohoku-Oki megathrust earthquake controlled both the strength of shaking and the size of the tsunami that followed. Finite-source imaging reveals that the rupture consisted of a small initial phase, deep rupture for up to 40 seconds, extensive shallow rupture at 60 to 70 seconds, and continuing deep rupture lasting more than 100 seconds. A combination of a shallow dipping fault and a compliant hanging wall may have enabled large shallow slip near the trench. Normal faulting aftershocks in the area of high slip suggest dynamic overshoot on the fault. Despite prodigious total slip, shallower parts of the rupture weakly radiated at high frequencies, whereas deeper parts of the rupture radiated strongly at high frequencies.
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            Asperity map along the subduction zone in northeastern Japan inferred from regional seismic data

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              Preceding, coseismic, and postseismic slips of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, Japan

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Sci Rep
                Sci Rep
                Scientific Reports
                Nature Publishing Group
                2045-2322
                10 May 2016
                2016
                : 6
                : 25704
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Research and Development Center for Earthquake and Tsunami, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology , 3173-25, Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-0001, Japan
                Author notes
                Article
                srep25704
                10.1038/srep25704
                4861985
                27161897
                93abe22f-a279-4aa1-b9e4-d0ae84d4a8d8
                Copyright © 2016, Macmillan Publishers Limited

                This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

                History
                : 16 January 2016
                : 21 April 2016
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