Projection du fardeau du cancer au Canada en 2024

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Résumé

Contexte:

Les données de surveillance du cancer sont essentielles pour mieux comprendre les lacunes et les progrès réalisés dans la lutte contre le cancer. Nous avons cherché à résumer les répercussions prévues du cancer au Canada en 2024, en effectuant des projections sur les nouveaux cas de cancer et les décès par cancer, par sexe et par province ou territoire, pour tous les âges confondus.

Méthodes:

Nous avons obtenu les données sur les nouveaux cas de cancer (c.-à-d., l’incidence, 1984–2019) et les décès par cancer (c.-à-d., la mortalité, 1984–2020) du Registre canadien du cancer et de la Base canadienne de données de l’état civil — Décès, respectivement. Nous avons projeté les chiffres et les taux d’incidence du cancer et de mortalité jusqu’en 2024 pour 23 types de cancer, par sexe et par province ou territoire. Nous avons calculé des taux normalisés selon l’âge au moyen de données de la population type canadienne de 2011.

Résultats:

En 2024, les nombres de nouveaux cas de cancer et de décès causés par le cancer devraient atteindre 247 100 et 88 100, respectivement. Le taux d’incidence normalisé selon l’âge (TINA) et le taux de mortalité normalisé selon l’âge (TMNA) devraient diminuer légèrement par rapport aux années précédentes, tant chez les hommes que chez les femmes, avec des taux plus élevés chez les hommes (TINA de 562,2 pour 100 000, et TMNA de 209,6 pour 100 000 chez les hommes; TINA de 495,9 pour 100 000 et TMNA de 152,8 pour 100 000 chez les femmes). Les TINA et les TMNA de plusieurs cancers courants devraient continuer à diminuer (p. ex., cancer du poumon, cancer colorectal et cancer de la prostate), tandis que ceux de plusieurs autres cancers devraient augmenter (p. ex., cancer du foie et des voies biliaires intrahépatiques, cancer du rein, mélanome et lymphome non hodgkinien).

Interprétation:

Bien que l’incidence globale du cancer et la mortalité connexe sont en déclin, il devrait y avoir une augmentation des nouveaux cas et des décès au Canada en 2024, en grande partie en raison de la croissance et du vieillissement de la population. Les efforts en matière de prévention, de dépistage et de traitement ont atténué les répercussions de certains cancers, mais ces projections à court terme soulignent l’effet potentiel du cancer sur les gens et les systèmes de soins de santé au Canada.

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Most cited references 51

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Cancer statistics, 2023

Rebecca L Siegel, Kimberly D Miller, Nikita Sandeep Wagle … (2023)

Each year, the American Cancer Society estimates the numbers of new cancer cases and deaths in the United States and compiles the most recent data on population-based cancer occurrence and outcomes using incidence data collected by central cancer registries and mortality data collected by the National Center for Health Statistics. In 2023, 1,958,310 new cancer cases and 609,820 cancer deaths are projected to occur in the United States. Cancer incidence increased for prostate cancer by 3% annually from 2014 through 2019 after two decades of decline, translating to an additional 99,000 new cases; otherwise, however, incidence trends were more favorable in men compared to women. For example, lung cancer in women decreased at one half the pace of men (1.1% vs. 2.6% annually) from 2015 through 2019, and breast and uterine corpus cancers continued to increase, as did liver cancer and melanoma, both of which stabilized in men aged 50 years and older and declined in younger men. However, a 65% drop in cervical cancer incidence during 2012 through 2019 among women in their early 20s, the first cohort to receive the human papillomavirus vaccine, foreshadows steep reductions in the burden of human papillomavirus-associated cancers, the majority of which occur in women. Despite the pandemic, and in contrast with other leading causes of death, the cancer death rate continued to decline from 2019 to 2020 (by 1.5%), contributing to a 33% overall reduction since 1991 and an estimated 3.8 million deaths averted. This progress increasingly reflects advances in treatment, which are particularly evident in the rapid declines in mortality (approximately 2% annually during 2016 through 2020) for leukemia, melanoma, and kidney cancer, despite stable/increasing incidence, and accelerated declines for lung cancer. In summary, although cancer mortality rates continue to decline, future progress may be attenuated by rising incidence for breast, prostate, and uterine corpus cancers, which also happen to have the largest racial disparities in mortality.

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Body Fatness and Cancer--Viewpoint of the IARC Working Group.

Béatrice Lauby-Secretan, Chiara Scoccianti, Dana Loomis … (2017)

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International Classification of Childhood Cancer, third edition.

Eva Steliarova-Foucher, Charles Stiller, Brigitte Lacour … (2005)

The third edition of the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology (ICD-O-3), which was published in 2000, introduced major changes in coding and classification of neoplasms, notably for leukemias and lymphomas, which are important groups of cancer types that occur in childhood. This necessitated a third revision of the 1996 International Classification of Childhood Cancer (ICCC-3). The tumor categories for the ICCC-3 were designed to respect several principles: agreement with current international standards, integration of the entities defined by newly developed diagnostic techniques, continuity with previous childhood classifications, and exhaustiveness. The ICCC-3 classifies tumors coded according to the ICD-O-3 into 12 main groups, which are split further into 47 subgroups. These 2 levels of the ICCC-3 allow standardized comparisons of the broad categories of childhood neoplasms in continuity with the previous classifications. The 16 most heterogeneous subgroups are broken down further into 2-11 divisions to allow study of important entities or homogeneous collections of tumors characterized at the cytogenetic or molecular level. Some divisions may be combined across the higher-level categories, such as the B-cell neoplasms within leukemias and lymphomas. The ICCC-3 respects currently existing international standards and was designed for use in international, population-based, epidemiological studies and cancer registries. The use of an international classification system is especially important in the field of pediatric oncology, in which the low frequency of cases requires rigorous procedures to ensure data comparability. Copyright 2005 American Cancer Society.

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Author and article information

Journal

Journal ID (nlm-ta): CMAJ

Journal ID (iso-abbrev): CMAJ

Journal ID (publisher-id): 9711805

Title: CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association Journal

Publisher: CMA Impact Inc.

ISSN (Print): 0820-3946

ISSN (Electronic): 1488-2329

Publication date (Print): 2 July 2024

Publication date (Electronic): 02 July 2024

Volume: 196

Issue: 24

Pages: E836-E845

Affiliations

Départements d’oncologie et de sciences de la santé communautaire (Brenner), Cumming School of Medicine, Université de Calgary, Calgary, Alb.; Surveillance, Société canadienne du cancer (Gillis), Vancouver, C.-B.; Centre de surveillance et de recherche appliquée (Demers), Agence de la santé publique du Canada; Centre des données sur la santé de la population (Ellison, Billette, Zhang, Liu), Statistique Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Population Oncology, BC Cancer (Woods), Vancouver, C.-B.; Département de chirurgie (Finley), Université McMaster, St. Joseph’s Health Care Centre, Hamilton, Ont.; Performance du système et analyses (Fitzgerald), Partenariat canadien contre le cancer, Toronto, Ont.; Programme de soins contre le cancer de Santé Nouvelle-Écosse (Saint-Jacques), Halifax, N.-É.; Analyses avancées du cancer (Shack), Cancer Care Alberta, Calgary, Alb.; Département des sciences de la santé communautaire (Turner), Collège de médecine Max Rady, Université du Manitoba; Paul Albrechtsen Research Institute (Turner), CancerCare Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.

Author notes

Correspondance: Darren Brenner, Darren.Brenner@ 123456ucalgary.ca

Article

Publisher ID: 196e836

DOI: 10.1503/cmaj.240095-f

PMC ID: 11230676

PubMed ID: 38955403

SO-VID: 93eca28e-6a40-4e87-ac49-6618242d474e

License:

This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) licence, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided that the original publication is properly cited, the use is noncommercial (i.e., research or educational use), and no modifications or adaptations are made. See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

History

Date accepted : 28 March 2024

Projection du fardeau du cancer au Canada en 2024

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Related collections

Cancer Metabolism

Most cited references 51

Cancer statistics, 2023

Body Fatness and Cancer--Viewpoint of the IARC Working Group.

International Classification of Childhood Cancer, third edition.

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