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      Transport oil product consumption and GHG emission reduction potential in China: An electric vehicle-based scenario analysis

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      PLoS ONE

      Public Library of Science

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          Abstract

          China’s transport sector is facing enormous challenges from soaring energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Transport electrification has been viewed as a major solution to transportation decarbonization, and electric vehicles (EVs) have attracted considerable attention from policymakers. This paper analyzes the effects of the introduction of EVs in China. A system dynamics model is developed and applied to assess the energy-saving and emission-reducing impacts of the projected penetration of EVs until the year 2030. Five types of scenarios of various EV penetration rates, electricity generation mixes, and the speed of technological improvement are discussed. Results confirm that reductions in transport GHG emissions and gasoline and diesel consumption by 3.0%–16.2%, 4.4%–16.1%, and 15.8%–34.3%, respectively, will be achieved by 2030 under China’s projected EV penetration scenarios. Results also confirm that if EV penetration is accompanied by decarbonized electricity generation, that is, the use of 55% coal by 2030, then total transport GHG emissions will be further reduced by 0.8%–4.4%. Moreover, further reductions of GHG emissions of up to 5.6% could be achieved through technological improvement. The promotion of EVs could substantially affect the reduction of transport GHG emissions in China, despite the uncertainty of the influence intensity, which is dependent on the penetration rate of EVs, the decarbonization of the power sector, and the technological improvement efficiency of EVs and internal combustion engine vehicles.

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          Most cited references 58

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          Long-term transport energy demand and climate policy: Alternative visions on transport decarbonization in energy-economy models

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            Structural decomposition analysis of Australia's greenhouse gas emissions

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              Modeling the prospects of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles to reduce CO2 emissions

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Formal analysisRole: Funding acquisitionRole: InvestigationRole: Writing – original draft
                Role: Data curationRole: Investigation
                Role: Investigation
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLoS One
                PLoS ONE
                plos
                plosone
                PLoS ONE
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                1932-6203
                16 September 2019
                2019
                : 14
                : 9
                PONE-D-19-06165
                10.1371/journal.pone.0222448
                6746360
                31525217
                © 2019 Zheng et al

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

                Counts
                Figures: 12, Tables: 6, Pages: 26
                Product
                Funding
                Y. Z. received the funding (No. 13&ZD159) for this work from China’s National Social Science Fund. Y. Z. received the funding (No. 2462015YQ0716) for this work from Scientific Research Foundation of China University of Petroleum, Beijing. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
                Categories
                Research Article
                Physical Sciences
                Physics
                Electricity
                Engineering and Technology
                Energy and Power
                Fuels
                Fossil Fuels
                Gasoline
                Physical Sciences
                Materials Science
                Materials
                Fuels
                Fossil Fuels
                Gasoline
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Biochemistry
                Lipids
                Oils
                Engineering and Technology
                Energy and Power
                Fuels
                Physical Sciences
                Materials Science
                Materials
                Fuels
                Engineering and Technology
                Energy and Power
                Fuels
                Fossil Fuels
                Coal
                Physical Sciences
                Materials Science
                Materials
                Fuels
                Fossil Fuels
                Coal
                Physical Sciences
                Materials Science
                Materials
                Organic Materials
                Coal
                Engineering and Technology
                Transportation
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Developmental Biology
                Life Cycles
                Research and Analysis Methods
                Simulation and Modeling
                Custom metadata
                All relevant data are within the manuscript and its Supporting Information files.

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