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      Climate change and health in the Sahel: a systematic review

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          Abstract

          The Sahel region is projected to be highly impacted by the more frequent hazards associated with climate change, including increased temperature, drought and flooding. This systematic review examined the evidence for climate change-related health consequences in the Sahel. The databases used were Medline (PubMed), Embase (Ovid), Web of Science (Clarivate) and CABI Global Health. Hand searches were also conducted, which included directly engaging Sahelian researchers and hand-searching in the African Journals Online database. Of the 4153 studies found, 893 were identified as duplicates and the remaining 3260 studies were screened (title and abstract only) and then assessed for eligibility. A total of 81 studies were included in the systematic review. Most studies focused on vector-borne diseases, food security, nutrition and heat-related stress. Findings suggest that mosquito distribution will shift under different climate scenarios, but this relationship will not be linear with temperature, as there are other variables to consider. Food insecurity, stunting (chronic malnutrition) and heat-related mortality are likely to increase if no action is taken owing to the projected impact of climate change on environmental factors and agriculture. Seventy-one per cent of manuscripts ( n = 58) had first authors from institutions in North America or Europe, of which 39.7% ( n = 23) included co-authors from African institutions.

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          Health effects of climate change: an overview of systematic reviews

          Objectives We aimed to develop a systematic synthesis of systematic reviews of health impacts of climate change, by synthesising studies’ characteristics, climate impacts, health outcomes and key findings. Design We conducted an overview of systematic reviews of health impacts of climate change. We registered our review in PROSPERO (CRD42019145972). No ethical approval was required since we used secondary data. Additional data are not available. Data sources On 22 June 2019, we searched Medline, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Embase, Cochrane and Web of Science. Eligibility criteria We included systematic reviews that explored at least one health impact of climate change. Data extraction and synthesis We organised systematic reviews according to their key characteristics, including geographical regions, year of publication and authors’ affiliations. We mapped the climate effects and health outcomes being studied and synthesised major findings. We used a modified version of A MeaSurement Tool to Assess systematic Reviews-2 (AMSTAR-2) to assess the quality of studies. Results We included 94 systematic reviews. Most were published after 2015 and approximately one-fifth contained meta-analyses. Reviews synthesised evidence about five categories of climate impacts; the two most common were meteorological and extreme weather events. Reviews covered 10 health outcome categories; the 3 most common were (1) infectious diseases, (2) mortality and (3) respiratory, cardiovascular or neurological outcomes. Most reviews suggested a deleterious impact of climate change on multiple adverse health outcomes, although the majority also called for more research. Conclusions Most systematic reviews suggest that climate change is associated with worse human health. This study provides a comprehensive higher order summary of research on health impacts of climate change. Study limitations include possible missed relevant reviews, no meta-meta-analyses, and no assessment of overlap. Future research could explore the potential explanations between these associations to propose adaptation and mitigation strategies and could include broader sociopsychological health impacts of climate change.
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            Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes -borne virus transmission risk with climate change

            Forecasting the impacts of climate change on Aedes-borne viruses—especially dengue, chikungunya, and Zika—is a key component of public health preparedness. We apply an empirically parameterized model of viral transmission by the vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, as a function of temperature, to predict cumulative monthly global transmission risk in current climates, and compare them with projected risk in 2050 and 2080 based on general circulation models (GCMs). Our results show that if mosquito range shifts track optimal temperature ranges for transmission (21.3–34.0°C for Ae. aegypti; 19.9–29.4°C for Ae. albopictus), we can expect poleward shifts in Aedes-borne virus distributions. However, the differing thermal niches of the two vectors produce different patterns of shifts under climate change. More severe climate change scenarios produce larger population exposures to transmission by Ae. aegypti, but not by Ae. albopictus in the most extreme cases. Climate-driven risk of transmission from both mosquitoes will increase substantially, even in the short term, for most of Europe. In contrast, significant reductions in climate suitability are expected for Ae. albopictus, most noticeably in southeast Asia and west Africa. Within the next century, nearly a billion people are threatened with new exposure to virus transmission by both Aedes spp. in the worst-case scenario. As major net losses in year-round transmission risk are predicted for Ae. albopictus, we project a global shift towards more seasonal risk across regions. Many other complicating factors (like mosquito range limits and viral evolution) exist, but overall our results indicate that while climate change will lead to increased net and new exposures to Aedes-borne viruses, the most extreme increases in Ae. albopictus transmission are predicted to occur at intermediate climate change scenarios.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review and editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Formal analysisRole: MethodologyRole: Writing – review and editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: Writing – review and editing
                Role: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: Writing – review and editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: MethodologyRole: Writing – review and editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: MethodologyRole: SupervisionRole: Writing – review and editing
                Journal
                R Soc Open Sci
                R Soc Open Sci
                RSOS
                royopensci
                Royal Society Open Science
                The Royal Society
                2054-5703
                July 2024
                July 17, 2024
                July 17, 2024
                : 11
                : 7
                : 231602
                Affiliations
                [ 1 ]Department of Environmental and Global Health, College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida; , Gainesville, FL, USA
                [ 2 ]Sahel Research Group, University of Florida; , Gainesville, FL, USA
                [ 3 ]Center for African Studies, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Florida; , Gainesville, FL, USA
                [ 4 ]Department of Epidemiology, College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida; , Gainesville, FL, USA
                [ 5 ]Department of Sociology and Rural Economy, Faculty of Agronomy, Abdou Moumouni University of Niamey; , Niamey, Niger
                [ 6 ]Department of Geography, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Florida; , Gainesville, FL, USA
                [ 7 ]Health Science Center Libraries, University of Florida; , Gainesville, FL, USA
                Author notes

                Electronic supplementary material is available online at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.7303170.

                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8043-4065
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6006-9355
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3783-9523
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3928-2351
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3646-5921
                Article
                rsos231602
                10.1098/rsos.231602
                11251769
                39021778
                954622f1-7a11-45a9-bbfa-e66c6d43e27b
                © 2024 The Authors.

                Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.

                History
                : October 25, 2023
                : May 7, 2024
                : June 11, 2024
                Categories
                1001
                87
                Science, Society and Policy
                Review Articles

                sahel,nutrition,west africa,climate change,vector-borne diseases,food security

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