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      Prediction and prevention of the next pandemic zoonosis

      review-article
      , Prof, PhD a , c , , Prof, PhD c , , Prof, PhD d , , Prof, PhD e , , PhD f , , DVM g , h , , MSc g , , Prof, MD b , , Dr, PhD g , *
      Lancet (London, England)
      Elsevier Ltd.

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          Summary

          Most pandemics—eg, HIV/AIDS, severe acute respiratory syndrome, pandemic influenza—originate in animals, are caused by viruses, and are driven to emerge by ecological, behavioural, or socioeconomic changes. Despite their substantial effects on global public health and growing understanding of the process by which they emerge, no pandemic has been predicted before infecting human beings. We review what is known about the pathogens that emerge, the hosts that they originate in, and the factors that drive their emergence. We discuss challenges to their control and new efforts to predict pandemics, target surveillance to the most crucial interfaces, and identify prevention strategies. New mathematical modelling, diagnostic, communications, and informatics technologies can identify and report hitherto unknown microbes in other species, and thus new risk assessment approaches are needed to identify microbes most likely to cause human disease. We lay out a series of research and surveillance opportunities and goals that could help to overcome these challenges and move the global pandemic strategy from response to pre-emption.

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          Most cited references49

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          Isolation of a novel coronavirus from a man with pneumonia in Saudi Arabia.

          A previously unknown coronavirus was isolated from the sputum of a 60-year-old man who presented with acute pneumonia and subsequent renal failure with a fatal outcome in Saudi Arabia. The virus (called HCoV-EMC) replicated readily in cell culture, producing cytopathic effects of rounding, detachment, and syncytium formation. The virus represents a novel betacoronavirus species. The closest known relatives are bat coronaviruses HKU4 and HKU5. Here, the clinical data, virus isolation, and molecular identification are presented. The clinical picture was remarkably similar to that of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2003 and reminds us that animal coronaviruses can cause severe disease in humans.
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            Isolation and characterization of viruses related to the SARS coronavirus from animals in southern China.

            Y Guan (2003)
            A novel coronavirus (SCoV) is the etiological agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). SCoV-like viruses were isolated from Himalayan palm civets found in a live-animal market in Guangdong, China. Evidence of virus infection was also detected in other animals (including a raccoon dog, Nyctereutes procyonoides) and in humans working at the same market. All the animal isolates retain a 29-nucleotide sequence that is not found in most human isolates. The detection of SCoV-like viruses in small, live wild mammals in a retail market indicates a route of interspecies transmission, although the natural reservoir is not known.
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              Avian influenza A (H5N1) infection in humans.

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                Lancet
                Lancet
                Lancet (London, England)
                Elsevier Ltd.
                0140-6736
                1474-547X
                29 November 2012
                1-7 December 2012
                29 November 2012
                : 380
                : 9857
                : 1956-1965
                Affiliations
                [a ]Mailman School of Public Health; Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
                [b ]Center for Infection and Immunity; Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
                [c ]One Health Institute, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, CA, USA
                [d ]Centre for Immunity, Infection and Evolution, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
                [e ]College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA
                [f ]US Agency for International Development, Washington, DC, USA
                [g ]EcoHealth Alliance, New York, NY, USA
                [h ]IUCN Species Survival Commission Wildlife Health Specialist Group, Gland, Switzerland
                Author notes
                [* ]Correspondence to: Dr Peter Daszak, EcoHealth Alliance, 460 West 34th Street, New York, NY 10001, USA daszak@ 123456ecohealthalliance.org
                Article
                S0140-6736(12)61684-5
                10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61684-5
                3712877
                23200504
                95c3ded7-7b23-4199-90de-74a4cf70557b
                Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

                Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

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