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      Does the h-index have predictive power?

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          Abstract

          Bibliometric measures of individual scientific achievement are of particular interest if they can be used to predict future achievement. Here we report results of an empirical study of the predictive power of the h-index compared to other indicators. Our findings indicate that the h-index is better than other indicators considered (total citation count, citations per paper, and total paper count) in predicting future scientific achievement. We discuss reasons for the superiority of the h-index.

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          Journal
          06 August 2007
          2007-10-13
          10.1073/pnas.0707962104
          0708.0646
          Custom metadata
          Proc.Nat.Acad.Sci. vol. 104, 19193 (2007)
          Sect. V added on combining h and N_c, with new Fig. 11. Other minor changes. To be published in PNAS
          physics.soc-ph cond-mat.stat-mech hep-th

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