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      Effect of HPV vaccination and cervical cancer screening in England by ethnicity: a modelling study

      research-article
      , MSc a , * , , PhD a , , PhD a , , PhD b , , PhD c , , PhD d , , PhD a
      The Lancet. Public Health
      Elsevier, Ltd

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          Summary

          Background

          Health equality is increasingly being considered alongside overall health gain when assessing public health interventions. However, the trade-off between the direct effects of vaccination and herd immunity could lead to unintuitive consequences for the distribution of disease burden within a population. We used a transmission dynamic model of human papillomavirus (HPV) to investigate the effect of ethnic disparities in vaccine and cervical screening uptake on inequality in disease incidence in England.

          Methods

          We developed an individual-based model of HPV transmission and disease, parameterising it with the latest data for sexual behaviour (from National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles [Natsal-3]) and vaccine and screening uptake by ethnicity (from Public Health England [PHE]) and fitting it to data for HPV prevalence (from ARTISTIC, PHE, Natsal-3) and HPV-related disease incidence (from National Cancer Registry [ONS]). The outcome of interest was the age-adjusted incidence of HPV-related cancer (both cervical and non-cervical) in all women in England in view of differences and changes in vaccination and screening uptake by ethnicity in England, over time. We also studied three potential public health interventions aimed at reducing inequality in HPV-related disease incidence: increasing uptake in black and Asian females to match that in whites for vaccination; cervical screening in women who turn 25 in 2018 or later; and cervical screening in all ages.

          Findings

          In the pre-vaccination era, before 2008, women from ethnic minorities in England reported a disproportionate share of cervical disease. Our model suggests that Asian women were 1·7 times (95% credibility interval [CI] 1·1–2·7) more likely to be diagnosed with cervical cancer than white women (22·8 vs 13·4 cases per 100 000 women). Because HPV vaccination uptake is lower in ethnic minorities, we predict an initial widening of this gap, with cervical cancer incidence in Asian women up to 2·5 times higher (95% CI 1·3–4·8) than in white women 20 years after vaccine introduction (corresponding to an additional 10·8 [95% CI 10·1–11·5] cases every year). In time, we predict that herd immunity benefits will diffuse from the larger white sub-population and the disparity will narrow. Increased cervical screening uptake in vaccinated women from ethnic minorities would lead to rapid improvement in equality with parity in incidence after 20 years of HPV vaccination.

          Interpretation

          Our study suggests that the introduction of HPV vaccination in England will initially widen a pre-existing disparity in the incidence of HPV-related cancer by ethnicity, partly due to herd immunity disproportionately benefiting subgroups with high vaccination rates. Although in time this induced disparity will narrow, increasing cervical screening uptake in girls from ethnic minorities should be encouraged to eliminate the inequality in cervical cancer incidence in the medium term. We recommend that dynamic effects should be considered when estimating the effect of public health programmes on equality.

          Funding

          Cancer Research UK.

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          Most cited references38

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          Human papillomavirus is a necessary cause of invasive cervical cancer worldwide.

          A recent report that 93 per cent of invasive cervical cancers worldwide contain human papillomavirus (HPV) may be an underestimate, due to sample inadequacy or integration events affecting the HPV L1 gene, which is the target of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based test which was used. The formerly HPV-negative cases from this study have therefore been reanalyzed for HPV serum antibodies and HPV DNA. Serology for HPV 16 VLPs, E6, and E7 antibodies was performed on 49 of the 66 cases which were HPV-negative and a sample of 48 of the 866 cases which were HPV-positive in the original study. Moreover, 55 of the 66 formerly HPV-negative biopsies were also reanalyzed by a sandwich procedure in which the outer sections in a series of sections are used for histological review, while the inner sections are assayed by three different HPV PCR assays targeting different open reading frames (ORFs). No significant difference was found in serology for HPV 16 proteins between the cases that were originally HPV PCR-negative and -positive. Type-specific E7 PCR for 14 high-risk HPV types detected HPV DNA in 38 (69 per cent) of the 55 originally HPV-negative and amplifiable specimens. The HPV types detected were 16, 18, 31, 33, 39, 45, 52, and 58. Two (4 per cent) additional cases were only HPV DNA-positive by E1 and/or L1 consensus PCR. Histological analysis of the 55 specimens revealed that 21 were qualitatively inadequate. Only two of the 34 adequate samples were HPV-negative on all PCR tests, as against 13 of the 21 that were inadequate ( p< 0.001). Combining the data from this and the previous study and excluding inadequate specimens, the worldwide HPV prevalence in cervical carcinomas is 99.7 per cent. The presence of HPV in virtually all cervical cancers implies the highest worldwide attributable fraction so far reported for a specific cause of any major human cancer. The extreme rarity of HPV-negative cancers reinforces the rationale for HPV testing in addition to, or even instead of, cervical cytology in routine cervical screening. Copyright 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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            Human Papillomavirus Types in Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinomas Worldwide: A Systematic Review

            A. Kreimer (2005)
            Mucosal human papillomaviruses (HPV) are the cause of cervical cancer and likely a subset of head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC), yet the global prevalence and type distribution of HPV in HNSCC remains unclear. We systematically reviewed published studies of HNSCC biopsies that employed PCR-based methods to detect and genotype HPV to describe the prevalence and type distribution of HPV by anatomic cancer site. Geographic location and study size were investigated as possible sources of variability. In the 5,046 HNSCC cancer specimens from 60 studies, the overall HPV prevalence was 25.9% [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 24.7-27.2]. HPV prevalence was significantly higher in oropharyngeal SCCs (35.6% of 969; 95% CI, 32.6-38.7) than oral SCCs (23.5% of 2,642; 95% CI, 21.9-25.1) or laryngeal SCCs (24.0% of 1,435; 95% CI, 21.8-26.3). HPV16 accounted for a larger majority of HPV-positive oropharyngeal SCCs (86.7%; 95% CI, 82.6-90.1) compared with HPV-positive oral SCCs (68.2%; 95% CI, 64.4-71.9) and laryngeal SCCs (69.2%; 95% CI, 64.0-74.0). Conversely, HPV18 was rare in HPV-positive oropharyngeal SCCs (2.8%; 95% CI, 1.3-5.3) compared with other head and neck sites [34.1% (95% CI, 30.4-38.0) of oral SCCs and 17.0% (95% CI, 13.0-21.6) of laryngeal SCCs]. Aside from HPV16 and HPV18, other oncogenic HPVs were rarely detected in HNSCC. Tumor site-specific HPV prevalence was higher among studies from North America compared with Europe and Asia. The high HPV16 prevalence and the lack of HPV18 in oropharyngeal compared with other HNSCCs may point to specific virus-tissue interactions. Small sample size and publication bias complicate the assessment of the prevalence of HPV in head and neck sites beyond the oropharynx.
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              Epidemiologic classification of human papillomavirus types associated with cervical cancer.

              Infection with human papilloma virus (HPV) is the main cause of cervical cancer, but the risk associated with the various HPV types has not been adequately assessed. We pooled data from 11 case-control studies from nine countries involving 1918 women with histologically confirmed squamous-cell cervical cancer and 1928 control women. A common protocol and questionnaire were used. Information on risk factors was obtained by personal interviews, and cervical cells were collected for detection of HPV DNA and typing in a central laboratory by polymerase-chain-reaction-based assays (with MY09/MY11 and GP5+/6+ primers). HPV DNA was detected in 1739 of the 1918 patients with cervical cancer (90.7 percent) and in 259 of the 1928 control women (13.4 percent). With the GP5+/6+ primer, HPV DNA was detected in 96.6 percent of the patients and 15.6 percent of the controls. The most common HPV types in patients, in descending order of frequency, were types 16, 18, 45, 31, 33, 52, 58, and 35. Among control women, types 16, 18, 45, 31, 6, 58, 35, and 33 were the most common. For studies using the GP5+/6+ primer, the pooled odds ratio for cervical cancer associated with the presence of any HPV was 158.2 (95 percent confidence interval, 113.4 to 220.6). The odds ratios were over 45 for the most common and least common HPV types. Fifteen HPV types were classified as high-risk types (16, 18, 31, 33, 35, 39, 45, 51, 52, 56, 58, 59, 68, 73, and 82); 3 were classified as probable high-risk types (26, 53, and 66); and 12 were classified as low-risk types (6, 11, 40, 42, 43, 44, 54, 61, 70, 72, 81, and CP6108). There was good agreement between our epidemiologic classification and the classification based on phylogenetic grouping. In addition to HPV types 16 and 18, types 31, 33, 35, 39, 45, 51, 52, 56, 58, 59, 68, 73, and 82 should be considered carcinogenic, or high-risk, types, and types 26, 53, and 66 should be considered probably carcinogenic. Copyright 2003 Massachusetts Medical Society
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                Lancet Public Health
                Lancet Public Health
                The Lancet. Public Health
                Elsevier, Ltd
                2468-2667
                19 December 2017
                January 2018
                19 December 2017
                : 3
                : 1
                : e44-e51
                Affiliations
                [a ]Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
                [b ]Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK
                [c ]National Centre for Infectious Disease Surveillance and Control (CIDSC), London, UK
                [d ]Health Behaviour Research Centre, London, UK
                Author notes
                [* ]Correspondence to: Helen C Johnson, Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UKCorrespondence to: Helen C Johnson, Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious DiseasesLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical MedicineLondonWC1E 7HTUK helen.johnson@ 123456lshtm.ac.uk
                Article
                S2468-2667(17)30238-4
                10.1016/S2468-2667(17)30238-4
                5765530
                29307388
                9643fada-9b2d-49bf-b5e6-924ce8d55959
                © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license

                This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

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