Land management impacts on European butterflies of conservation concern: a review

Climate change is one of the most influential drivers of biodiversity. Species-specific differences in the reaction to climate change can become particularly important when interacting species are considered. Current studies have evidenced temporal mismatching of interacting species at single points in space, and recently two investigations showed that species interactions are relevant for their future ranges. However, so far we are not aware that the ranges of interacting species may become substantially spatially mismatched. We developed separate ecological-niche models for a monophagous butterfly (Boloria titania) and its larval host plant (Polygonum bistorta) based on monthly interpolated climate data, land-cover classes, and soil data at a 10'-grid resolution. We show that all of three chosen global-change scenarios, which cover a broad range of potential developments in demography, socio-economics, and technology during the 21st century from moderate to intermediate to maximum change, will result in a pronounced spatial mismatch between future niche spaces of these species. The butterfly may expand considerably its future range (by 124-258%) if the host plant has unlimited dispersal, but it could lose 52-75% of its current range if the host plant is not able to fill its projected ecological niche space, and 79-88% if the butterfly also is assumed to be highly dispersal limited. These findings strongly suggest that climate change has the potential to disrupt trophic interactions because co-occurring species do not necessarily react in a similar manner to global change, having important consequences at ecological and evolutionary time scales.

Habitat quality and metapopulation effects are the main hypotheses that currently explain the disproportionate decline of insects in cultivated Holarctic landscapes. The former assumes a degradation in habitat quality for insects within surviving ecosystems, the latter that too few, small or isolated islands of ecosystem remain in landscapes for populations to persist. These hypotheses are often treated as alternatives, and this can lead to serious conflict in the interpretations of conservationists. We present the first empirical demonstration that habitat quality and site isolation are both important determinants of where populations persist in modern landscapes. We described the precise habitat requirements of Melitaea cinxia, Polyommatus bellargus and Thymelicus acteon, and quantified the variation in carrying capacity within each butterfly's niche. We then made detailed surveys to compare the distribution and density of every population of each species with the size, distance apart and quality of their specific habitats in all their potential habitat patches in three UK landscapes. In each case, within-site variation in habitat quality explained which patches supported a species' population two to three times better than site isolation. Site area and occupancy were not correlated in any species. Instead of representing alternative paradigms, habitat quality and spatial effects operate at different hierarchical levels within the same process: habitat quality is the missing third parameter in metapopulation dynamics, contributing more to species persistence, on the basis of these results, than site area or isolation. A reorientation in conservation priorities is recommended.