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      A systematic analysis of world-wide population-based data on the global burden of chronic kidney disease in 2010

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      , PhD, MSPH, , MD, PhD, , MD, PhD, , MPH, , MS, , PhD, MPH, , MD, MS, , MD, PhD
      Kidney international
      chronic kidney disease, proteinuria

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          Abstract

          Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major risk factor for end-stage renal disease, cardiovascular disease and premature death. Here we estimated the global prevalence and absolute burden of CKD in 2010 by pooling data from population-based studies. We searched MEDLINE (January 1990 to December 2014), International Society of Nephrology Global Outreach Program funded projects, and bibliographies of retrieved articles and selected 33 studies reporting gender- and age-specific prevalence of CKD in representative population samples. The age standardized global prevalence of CKD stages 1–5 in adults aged 20 and older was 10.4% in men (95% confidence interval 9.3–11.9%) and 11.8% in women (11.2–12.6%). This consisted of 8.6% men (7.3–9.8%) and 9.6% women (7.7–11.1%) in high-income countries, and 10.6% men (9.4–13.1%) and 12.5% women (11.8–14.0%) in low- and middle-income countries. The total number of adults with CKD was 225.7 million (205.7–257.4 million) men and 271.8 million (258.0–293.7 million) women. This consisted of 48.3 million (42.3–53.3 million) men and 61.7 million (50.4–69.9 million) women in high-income countries, and 177.4 million (159.2–215.9 million) men and 210.1 million (200.8–231.7 million) women in low- and middle-income countries. Thus, CKD is an important global-health challenge, especially in low- and middle-income countries. National and international efforts for prevention, detection, and treatment of CKD are needed to reduce its morbidity and mortality worldwide.

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          Most cited references44

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          National, regional, and global trends in systolic blood pressure since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 786 country-years and 5·4 million participants.

          Data for trends in blood pressure are needed to understand the effects of its dietary, lifestyle, and pharmacological determinants; set intervention priorities; and evaluate national programmes. However, few worldwide analyses of trends in blood pressure have been done. We estimated worldwide trends in population mean systolic blood pressure (SBP). We estimated trends and their uncertainties in mean SBP for adults 25 years and older in 199 countries and territories. We obtained data from published and unpublished health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (786 country-years and 5·4 million participants). For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean SBP by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally representative. In 2008, age-standardised mean SBP worldwide was 128·1 mm Hg (95% uncertainty interval 126·7-129·4) in men and 124·4 mm Hg (123·0-125·9) in women. Globally, between 1980 and 2008, SBP decreased by 0·8 mm Hg per decade (-0·4 to 2·2, posterior probability of being a true decline=0·90) in men and 1·0 mm Hg per decade (-0·3 to 2·3, posterior probability=0·93) in women. Female SBP decreased by 3·5 mm Hg or more per decade in western Europe and Australasia (posterior probabilities ≥0·999). Male SBP fell most in high-income North America, by 2·8 mm Hg per decade (1·3-4·5, posterior probability >0·999), followed by Australasia and western Europe where it decreased by more than 2·0 mm Hg per decade (posterior probabilities >0·98). SBP rose in Oceania, east Africa, and south and southeast Asia for both sexes, and in west Africa for women, with the increases ranging 0·8-1·6 mm Hg per decade in men (posterior probabilities 0·72-0·91) and 1·0-2·7 mm Hg per decade for women (posterior probabilities 0·75-0·98). Female SBP was highest in some east and west African countries, with means of 135 mm Hg or greater. Male SBP was highest in Baltic and east and west African countries, where mean SBP reached 138 mm Hg or more. Men and women in western Europe had the highest SBP in high-income regions. On average, global population SBP decreased slightly since 1980, but trends varied significantly across regions and countries. SBP is currently highest in low-income and middle-income countries. Effective population-based and personal interventions should be targeted towards low-income and middle-income countries. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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            Prevalence estimates of chronic kidney disease in Canada: results of a nationally representative survey.

            Chronic kidney disease is an important risk factor for death and cardiovascular-related morbidity, but estimates to date of its prevalence in Canada have generally been extrapolated from the prevalence of end-stage renal disease. We used direct measures of kidney function collected from a nationally representative survey population to estimate the prevalence of chronic kidney disease among Canadian adults. We examined data for 3689 adult participants of cycle 1 of the Canadian Health Measures Survey (2007-2009) for the presence of chronic kidney disease. We also calculated the age-standardized prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors by chronic kidney disease group. We cross-tabulated the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) with albuminuria status. The prevalence of chronic kidney disease during the period 2007-2009 was 12.5%, representing about 3 million Canadian adults. The estimated prevalence of stage 3-5 disease was 3.1% (0.73 million adults) and albuminuria 10.3% (2.4 million adults). The prevalence of diabetes, hypertension and hypertriglyceridemia were all significantly higher among adults with chronic kidney disease than among those without it. The prevalence of albuminuria was high, even among those whose eGFR was 90 mL/min per 1.73 m(2) or greater (10.1%) and those without diabetes or hypertension (9.3%). Awareness of kidney dysfunction among adults with stage 3-5 chronic kidney disease was low (12.0%). The prevalence of kidney dysfunction was substantial in the survey population, including individuals without hypertension or diabetes, conditions most likely to prompt screening for kidney dysfunction. These findings highlight the potential for missed opportunities for early intervention and secondary prevention of chronic kidney disease.
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              Comparison of the prevalence and mortality risk of CKD in Australia using the CKD Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) and Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study GFR estimating equations: the AusDiab (Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle) Study.

              The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) is more accurate than the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study equation. We applied both equations in a cohort representative of the Australian adult population. Population-based cohort study. 11,247 randomly selected noninstitutionalized Australians aged >or= 25 years who attended a physical examination during the baseline AusDiab (Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle) Study survey. Glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was estimated using the MDRD Study and CKD-EPI equations. Kidney damage was defined as urine albumin-creatinine ratio >or= 2.5 mg/mmol in men and >or= 3.5 mg/mmol in women or urine protein-creatinine ratio >or= 0.20 mg/mg. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) was defined as estimated GFR (eGFR) >or= 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) or kidney damage. Participants were classified into 3 mutually exclusive subgroups: CKD according to both equations; CKD according to the MDRD Study equation, but no CKD according to the CKD-EPI equation; and no CKD according to both equations. All-cause mortality was examined in subgroups with and without CKD. Serum creatinine and urinary albumin, protein, and creatinine measured on a random spot morning urine sample. 266 participants identified as having CKD according to the MDRD Study equation were reclassified to no CKD according to the CKD-EPI equation (estimated prevalence, 1.9%; 95% CI, 1.4-2.6). All had an eGFR >or= 45 mL/min/1.73 m(2) using the MDRD Study equation. Reclassified individuals were predominantly women with a favorable cardiovascular risk profile. The proportion of reclassified individuals with a Framingham-predicted 10-year cardiovascular risk >or= 30% was 7.2% compared with 7.9% of the group with no CKD according to both equations and 45.3% of individuals retained in stage 3a using both equations. There was no evidence of increased all-cause mortality in the reclassified group (age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratio vs no CKD, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.62-1.97). Using the MDRD Study equation, the prevalence of CKD in the Australian population aged >or= 25 years was 13.4% (95% CI, 11.1-16.1). Using the CKD-EPI equation, the prevalence was 11.5% (95% CI, 9.42-14.1). Single measurements of serum creatinine and urinary markers. The lower estimated prevalence of CKD using the CKD-EPI equation is caused by reclassification of low-risk individuals. Copyright 2010 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                0323470
                5428
                Kidney Int
                Kidney Int.
                Kidney international
                0085-2538
                1523-1755
                29 June 2015
                29 July 2015
                November 2015
                01 May 2016
                : 88
                : 5
                : 950-957
                Affiliations
                Department of Epidemiology (Drs. Mills, Xu, Kelly, J Chen, Mr. Bundy, Ms. C Chen, and Prof. He), Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, and Department of Medicine (Dr. J Chen and Prof. He), Tulane University School of Medicine, New Orleans, LA, USA; Department of Endocrine and Metabolic Diseases (Dr. Xu), Rui-Jin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao-Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China; Department of Epidemiology (Prof. Zhang), Zhengzhou University College of Public Health, Zhengzhou, China
                Author notes
                Corresponding author: Jiang He, MD, PhD, Department of Epidemiology, Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, 1440 Canal Street Suite 2000, New Orleans, LA 70118, USA, Phone: 504-988-5165, Fax: 504-988-7448, jhe@ 123456tulane.edu
                [*]

                Co-first authors

                Article
                NIHMS703446
                10.1038/ki.2015.230
                4653075
                26221752
                97b9b325-ac07-4ab0-8be8-6b84f9c39c26

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                Nephrology
                chronic kidney disease,proteinuria
                Nephrology
                chronic kidney disease, proteinuria

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