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      Climate pacing of millennial sea-level change variability in the central and western Mediterranean

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          Abstract

          Future warming in the Mediterranean is expected to significantly exceed global values with unpredictable implications on the sea-level rise rates in the coming decades. Here, we apply an empirical-Bayesian spatio-temporal statistical model to a dataset of 401 sea-level index points from the central and western Mediterranean and reconstruct rates of sea-level change for the past 10,000 years. We demonstrate that the mean rates of Mediterranean industrial-era sea-level rise have been significantly faster than any other period since ~4000 years ago. We further highlight a previously unrecognized variability in Mediterranean sea-level change rates. In the Common Era, this variability correlates with the occurrence of major regional-scale cooling/warming episodes. Our data show a sea-level stabilization during the Late Antique Little Ice Age cold event, which interrupted a general rising trend of ~0.45 mm a −1 that characterized the warming episodes of the Common Era. By contrast, the Little Ice Age cold event had only minor regional effects on Mediterranean sea-level change rates.

          Abstract

          How sea-level in the western Mediterranean reacts to climate changes is not well known. Here, the authors present a regional reconstruction and show that temperatures influenced sea-level change rates during the Holocene, while recent sea-level rise is happening faster than during any other period of the last 4000 years.

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          Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization

          By coordinating the design and distribution of global climate model simulations of the past, current, and future climate, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has become one of the foundational elements of climate science. However, the need to address an ever-expanding range of scientific questions arising from more and more research communities has made it necessary to revise the organization of CMIP. After a long and wide community consultation, a new and more federated structure has been put in place. It consists of three major elements: (1) a handful of common experiments, the DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) and CMIP historical simulations (1850–near present) that will maintain continuity and help document basic characteristics of models across different phases of CMIP; (2) common standards, coordination, infrastructure, and documentation that will facilitate the distribution of model outputs and the characterization of the model ensemble; and (3) an ensemble of CMIP-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) that will be specific to a particular phase of CMIP (now CMIP6) and that will build on the DECK and CMIP historical simulations to address a large range of specific questions and fill the scientific gaps of the previous CMIP phases. The DECK and CMIP historical simulations, together with the use of CMIP data standards, will be the entry cards for models participating in CMIP. Participation in CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs by individual modelling groups will be at their own discretion and will depend on their scientific interests and priorities. With the Grand Science Challenges of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) as its scientific backdrop, CMIP6 will address three broad questions: – How does the Earth system respond to forcing? – What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases? – How can we assess future climate changes given internal climate variability, predictability, and uncertainties in scenarios? This CMIP6 overview paper presents the background and rationale for the new structure of CMIP, provides a detailed description of the DECK and CMIP6 historical simulations, and includes a brief introduction to the 21 CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs.
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            Sea level and global ice volumes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene.

            The major cause of sea-level change during ice ages is the exchange of water between ice and ocean and the planet's dynamic response to the changing surface load. Inversion of ∼1,000 observations for the past 35,000 y from localities far from former ice margins has provided new constraints on the fluctuation of ice volume in this interval. Key results are: (i) a rapid final fall in global sea level of ∼40 m in <2,000 y at the onset of the glacial maximum ∼30,000 y before present (30 ka BP); (ii) a slow fall to -134 m from 29 to 21 ka BP with a maximum grounded ice volume of ∼52 × 10(6) km(3) greater than today; (iii) after an initial short duration rapid rise and a short interval of near-constant sea level, the main phase of deglaciation occurred from ∼16.5 ka BP to ∼8.2 ka BP at an average rate of rise of 12 m⋅ka(-1) punctuated by periods of greater, particularly at 14.5-14.0 ka BP at ≥40 mm⋅y(-1) (MWP-1A), and lesser, from 12.5 to 11.5 ka BP (Younger Dryas), rates; (iv) no evidence for a global MWP-1B event at ∼11.3 ka BP; and (v) a progressive decrease in the rate of rise from 8.2 ka to ∼2.5 ka BP, after which ocean volumes remained nearly constant until the renewed sea-level rise at 100-150 y ago, with no evidence of oscillations exceeding ∼15-20 cm in time intervals ≥200 y from 6 to 0.15 ka BP.
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              Climate change and interconnected risks to sustainable development in the Mediterranean

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                matteo.vacchi@unipi.it
                Journal
                Nat Commun
                Nat Commun
                Nature Communications
                Nature Publishing Group UK (London )
                2041-1723
                29 June 2021
                29 June 2021
                2021
                : 12
                : 4013
                Affiliations
                [1 ]GRID grid.5395.a, ISNI 0000 0004 1757 3729, Dipartimento di Scienze Della Terra, , Università di Pisa, ; Pisa, Italy
                [2 ]GRID grid.5395.a, ISNI 0000 0004 1757 3729, CIRSEC—Centro Interdipartimentale di Ricerca per lo Studio degli Effetti del Cambiamento climatico dell’Università di Pisa, ; Pisa, Italy
                [3 ]GRID grid.430387.b, ISNI 0000 0004 1936 8796, Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences and Rutgers Institute of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, , Rutgers University, ; New Brunswick, NJ USA
                [4 ]GRID grid.462553.3, ISNI 0000 0001 2175 6833, CNRS, ThéMA, Université de Franche-Comté, UMR 6049, MSHE Ledoux, ; Besançon, Cedex France
                [5 ]GRID grid.462701.6, ISNI 0000 0001 1537 4214, TRACES, UMR 5608 CNRS, Université Toulouse Jean Jaurès, Maison de la Recherche, ; Toulouse, Cedex 9 France
                [6 ]GRID grid.7704.4, ISNI 0000 0001 2297 4381, MARUM, Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, , University of Bremen, ; Bremen, Germany
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1569-7862
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4016-9428
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7916-6059
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5575-1168
                Article
                24250
                10.1038/s41467-021-24250-1
                8242029
                34188029
                989f9f5f-ff8e-41f0-926a-7a457f06deab
                © The Author(s) 2021

                Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

                History
                : 18 January 2021
                : 26 May 2021
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                © The Author(s) 2021

                Uncategorized
                palaeoceanography,palaeoclimate,physical oceanography
                Uncategorized
                palaeoceanography, palaeoclimate, physical oceanography

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