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      Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study

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          There is no author summary for this article yet. Authors can add summaries to their articles on ScienceOpen to make them more accessible to a non-specialist audience.

          Summary

          Background

          Since December, 2019, Wuhan, China, has experienced an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 have been reported but risk factors for mortality and a detailed clinical course of illness, including viral shedding, have not been well described.

          Methods

          In this retrospective, multicentre cohort study, we included all adult inpatients (≥18 years old) with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 from Jinyintan Hospital and Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital (Wuhan, China) who had been discharged or had died by Jan 31, 2020. Demographic, clinical, treatment, and laboratory data, including serial samples for viral RNA detection, were extracted from electronic medical records and compared between survivors and non-survivors. We used univariable and multivariable logistic regression methods to explore the risk factors associated with in-hospital death.

          Findings

          191 patients (135 from Jinyintan Hospital and 56 from Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital) were included in this study, of whom 137 were discharged and 54 died in hospital. 91 (48%) patients had a comorbidity, with hypertension being the most common (58 [30%] patients), followed by diabetes (36 [19%] patients) and coronary heart disease (15 [8%] patients). Multivariable regression showed increasing odds of in-hospital death associated with older age (odds ratio 1·10, 95% CI 1·03–1·17, per year increase; p=0·0043), higher Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (5·65, 2·61–12·23; p<0·0001), and d-dimer greater than 1 μg/mL (18·42, 2·64–128·55; p=0·0033) on admission. Median duration of viral shedding was 20·0 days (IQR 17·0–24·0) in survivors, but SARS-CoV-2 was detectable until death in non-survivors. The longest observed duration of viral shedding in survivors was 37 days.

          Interpretation

          The potential risk factors of older age, high SOFA score, and d-dimer greater than 1 μg/mL could help clinicians to identify patients with poor prognosis at an early stage. Prolonged viral shedding provides the rationale for a strategy of isolation of infected patients and optimal antiviral interventions in the future.

          Funding

          Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences; National Science Grant for Distinguished Young Scholars; National Key Research and Development Program of China; The Beijing Science and Technology Project; and Major Projects of National Science and Technology on New Drug Creation and Development.

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          Most cited references 11

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          Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China

          Summary Background A recent cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan, China, was caused by a novel betacoronavirus, the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). We report the epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and radiological characteristics and treatment and clinical outcomes of these patients. Methods All patients with suspected 2019-nCoV were admitted to a designated hospital in Wuhan. We prospectively collected and analysed data on patients with laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection by real-time RT-PCR and next-generation sequencing. Data were obtained with standardised data collection forms shared by WHO and the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium from electronic medical records. Researchers also directly communicated with patients or their families to ascertain epidemiological and symptom data. Outcomes were also compared between patients who had been admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) and those who had not. Findings By Jan 2, 2020, 41 admitted hospital patients had been identified as having laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection. Most of the infected patients were men (30 [73%] of 41); less than half had underlying diseases (13 [32%]), including diabetes (eight [20%]), hypertension (six [15%]), and cardiovascular disease (six [15%]). Median age was 49·0 years (IQR 41·0–58·0). 27 (66%) of 41 patients had been exposed to Huanan seafood market. One family cluster was found. Common symptoms at onset of illness were fever (40 [98%] of 41 patients), cough (31 [76%]), and myalgia or fatigue (18 [44%]); less common symptoms were sputum production (11 [28%] of 39), headache (three [8%] of 38), haemoptysis (two [5%] of 39), and diarrhoea (one [3%] of 38). Dyspnoea developed in 22 (55%) of 40 patients (median time from illness onset to dyspnoea 8·0 days [IQR 5·0–13·0]). 26 (63%) of 41 patients had lymphopenia. All 41 patients had pneumonia with abnormal findings on chest CT. Complications included acute respiratory distress syndrome (12 [29%]), RNAaemia (six [15%]), acute cardiac injury (five [12%]) and secondary infection (four [10%]). 13 (32%) patients were admitted to an ICU and six (15%) died. Compared with non-ICU patients, ICU patients had higher plasma levels of IL2, IL7, IL10, GSCF, IP10, MCP1, MIP1A, and TNFα. Interpretation The 2019-nCoV infection caused clusters of severe respiratory illness similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and was associated with ICU admission and high mortality. Major gaps in our knowledge of the origin, epidemiology, duration of human transmission, and clinical spectrum of disease need fulfilment by future studies. Funding Ministry of Science and Technology, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, National Natural Science Foundation of China, and Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission.
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            Cardiac complications in patients with community-acquired pneumonia: incidence, timing, risk factors, and association with short-term mortality.

            Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) affects >5 million adults each year in the United States. Although incident cardiac complications occur in patients with community-acquired pneumonia, their incidence, timing, risk factors, and associations with short-term mortality are not well understood. A total of 1343 inpatients and 944 outpatients with community-acquired pneumonia were followed up prospectively for 30 days after presentation. Incident cardiac complications (new or worsening heart failure, new or worsening arrhythmias, or myocardial infarction) were diagnosed in 358 inpatients (26.7%) and 20 outpatients (2.1%). Although most events (89.1% in inpatients, 75% in outpatients) were diagnosed within the first week, more than half of them were recognized in the first 24 hours. Factors associated with their diagnosis included older age (odds ratio [OR]=1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.04), nursing home residence (OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.2-2.9), history of heart failure (OR, 4.3; 95% CI, 3.0-6.3), prior cardiac arrhythmias (OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.2-2.7), previously diagnosed coronary artery disease (OR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.04-2.0), arterial hypertension (OR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.1-2.1), respiratory rate ≥30 breaths per minute (OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.1-2.3), blood pH <7.35 (OR, 3.2; 95% CI, 1.8-5.7), blood urea nitrogen ≥30 mg/dL (OR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.1-2.2), serum sodium <130 mmol/L (OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.02-3.1), hematocrit <30% (OR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.3-3.2), pleural effusion on presenting chest x-ray (OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.1-2.4), and inpatient care (OR, 4.8; 95% CI, 2.8-8.3). Incident cardiac complications were associated with increased risk of death at 30 days after adjustment for baseline Pneumonia Severity Index score (OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.04-2.5). Incident cardiac complications are common in patients with community-acquired pneumonia and are associated with increased short-term mortality. Older age, nursing home residence, preexisting cardiovascular disease, and pneumonia severity are associated with their occurrence. Further studies are required to test risk stratification and prevention and treatment strategies for cardiac complications in this population.
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              D-dimer is a significant prognostic factor in patients with suspected infection and sepsis.

              The aim of the study was to determine whether C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), and d-dimer (DD) are markers of mortality in patients admitted to the emergency department (ED) with suspected infection and sepsis. We conducted a prospective cohort in a university hospital in Medellín, Colombia. Patients were admitted between August 1, 2007, and January 30, 2009. Clinical and demographic data and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II and Sepsis Organ Failure Assessment scores as well as blood samples for CRP, PCT, and DD were collected within the first 24 hours of admission. Survival was determined on day 28 to establish its association with the proposed biomarkers using logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic curves. We analyzed 684 patients. The median Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II and Sepsis Organ Failure Assessment scores were 10 (interquartile range [IQR], 6-15) and 2 (IQR, 1-4), respectively. The median CRP was 9.6 mg/dL (IQR, 3.5-20.4 mg/dL); PCT, 0.36 ng/mL (IQR, 0.1-3.7 ng/mL); and DD, 1612 ng/mL (IQR, 986-2801 ng/mL). The median DD in survivors was 1475 ng/mL (IQR, 955-2627 ng/mL) vs 2489 ng/mL (IQR, 1698-4573 ng/mL) in nonsurvivors (P=.0001). The discriminatory ability showed area under the curve-receiver operating characteristic for DD, 0.68; CRP, 0.55; and PCT, 0.59. After multivariate analysis, the only biomarker with a linear relation with mortality was DD, with an odds ratio of 2.07 (95% confidence interval, 0.93-4.62) for values more than 1180 and less than 2409 ng/mL and an odds ratio of 3.03 (95% confidence interval, 1.38-6.62) for values more than 2409 ng/mL. Our results suggest that high levels of DD are associated with 28-day mortality in patients with infection or sepsis identified in the emergency department. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                Lancet
                Lancet
                Lancet (London, England)
                Elsevier Ltd.
                0140-6736
                1474-547X
                11 March 2020
                28 March-3 April 2020
                11 March 2020
                : 395
                : 10229
                : 1054-1062
                Affiliations
                [a ]Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Center of Respiratory Medicine, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases, Institute of Respiratory Medicine, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
                [b ]Department of Tuberculosis and Respiratory Disease, Jinyintan Hospital, Wuhan, China
                [c ]Department of Clinical Laboratory, Jinyintan Hospital, Wuhan, China
                [d ]GCP Center, Jinyintan Hospital, Wuhan, China
                [e ]Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital, Wuhan, China
                [f ]Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing, China
                [g ]Institute of Clinical Medical Sciences, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing, China
                [h ]Department of Respiratory Medicine, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
                [i ]Tsinghua University School of Medicine, Beijing, China
                Author notes
                [* ]Correspondence to: Prof Bin Cao, Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing 100029, China caobin_ben@ 123456163.com
                [** ]Prof Hua Chen, Department of Tuberculosis and Respiratory Disease, Jinyintan Hospital, Dongxihu District, Wuhan 430023, China 2716637947@ 123456qq.com
                [†]

                Contributed equally

                Article
                S0140-6736(20)30566-3
                10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30566-3
                7270627
                32171076
                © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

                Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

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