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      A construção do conceito de incerteza: uma comparação das contribuições de Knight, Keynes, Shackle e Davidson

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      Nova Economia
      Nova Economia
      uncertainty, Knight, Keynes, Shackle, Davidson, incerteza, Knight, Keynes, Shackle, Davidson

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          Abstract

          O objetivo deste artigo é discutir o conceito de incerteza através da reconstituição das formas como o mesmo aparece nas versões de Knight, Keynes, Shackle e Davidson. O artigo procura se concentrar nas peculiaridades de cada uma destas abordagens da noção de incerteza. É indubitável que as teorias da incerteza destes autores apresentam paralelismo e afinidades significativas. Ainda que estes vários tratamentos comunguem de uma ênfase na diferença conceitual entre risco (probabilístico) e incerteza, assim como no aspecto da não mensurabilidade, suas abordagens e realces na conceituação da incerteza são distintos. Diante disso, o artigo compara e contrasta estas análises, concentrando-se nos aspectos que lhe são únicos e singulares. Foi a partir da visão "clássica" de incerteza de Knight, Keynes, Shackle e Davidson que se pode construir a hoje já consolidada visão "moderna" do "princípio da incerteza", irreversivelmente enraizada em boa parte do pensamento econômico heterodoxo.

          Translated abstract

          The purpose of this paper is to discuss the uncertainty concept through a reconstitution of the ways in which this notion emerges in the works by Knight, Keynes, Shackle and Davidson. It focuses on the uniqueness of each approach. It is unquestionable that these authors' theories of uncertainty have meaningful resemblances. Nevertheless, although all these treatments share an emphasis on the conceptual distinction between (probabilistic) risk and uncertainty, as well as on their immeasurability, it is fair to say that these authors' approaches to the conceptualisation of uncertainty are distinctive in many respects. Thus, the paper evaluates and contrasts their analyses, concentrating on their peculiarities. It was from this "classical" view of uncertainty (Knight, Keynes, Shackle and Davidson) that a "modern" approach to uncertainty could originally be constructed and further developed, and it is now rooted in current heterodox approaches.

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          Most cited references41

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          The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money

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            Risk, uncertainty and profit

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              Is Probability Theory Relevant for Uncertainty? A Post Keynesian Perspective

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ND
                Journal
                neco
                Nova Economia
                Nova econ.
                Nova Economia (Belo Horizonte )
                1980-5381
                August 2011
                : 21
                : 2
                : 171-195
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Universidade Estadual de Campinas Brazil
                Article
                S0103-63512011000200001
                10.1590/S0103-63512011000200001
                99e7f347-fa85-492c-932a-b7e27b99c0e4

                http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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                Product

                SciELO Brazil

                Self URI (journal page): http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_serial&pid=0103-6351&lng=en
                Categories
                ECONOMICS

                General economics
                uncertainty,Knight,Keynes,Shackle,Davidson,incerteza
                General economics
                uncertainty, Knight, Keynes, Shackle, Davidson, incerteza

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