Summary
- The projected worst-case scenario with no interventions was that Africa could see
3.3 million deaths and 1.2 billion infections as of mid-November 2020.
- The place of African traditional medicine in this pandemic has been central but
yet underreported and almost not carefully systematically researched as expected.
- The reality presented by lack of interest to carefully investigate the failed predictions
of doom for the African continent regarding the COVID-19 pandemic showcases global
health hypocrisy, and the fact that global health justice in research is a meaningless
concept.
- Indeed, no enthusiasm has been shown by the international research community to
understand empirically the reasons for this “resistance.”
- Imported models insensitive to the sociocultural and economic realities are needed
no more. Africa and the international community stand to gain with a deeper understanding
of why the expected doom never came. This might be useful to build on the gains and
better prepare for future pandemics.
The most prominent of the projections was that of the United Nations Economic Commission
for Africa (UNECA) on April 2020 which projected that Africa could see about 300,000
deaths from COVID-19 during the year even under the best-case scenarios (1). The projected
worst-case scenario with no interventions was that Africa could see 3.3 million deaths
and 1.2 billion infections. These projections by UNECA were linked to the fact that
the continent has one of the world's weakest and fragile health systems with dilapidated
healthcare infrastructure and the number of doctors per capita is among the lowest
in the world (1). Contrary to the projections of doom for Africa, a World Health Organization
(WHO) report released on the 21st and 26th May 2021 showed that Africa remains the
continent with the lowest number of confirmed cases of 3,457,590 compared to 66,414,286
in the Americas, 53,901,476 in Europe, 30,781,898 in South East Asia and 9,955,811
in Eastern Mediterranean. Africa is still the continent with the lowest number of
COVID-19 related deaths of 86,220 against 1,625,371 in the Americas, 1,140,008 in
Europe, 385,673 in South East Asia, and 199,581 Eastern Mediterranean (2). Countries
rated as highly prepared on the Global Health Security Index (3) did not perform as
well as expected with COVID-19. For instance, the United States which ranks 1st did
not do so well going by the COVID-19 infected persons and death rates (3). Going by
the relatively low COVID-19 related reported deaths, Africa's fight against the pandemic
can be considered as successful.
Adamset al. (4) have hypothesized some explanations for the reported low COVID-19
incidence and deaths in Africa around six main points: demographic structure, lack
of long-term care facilities, cross protecting from other previously circulating corona
viruses, underreporting, genetic factors, and public health mitigation strategies.
Early Interventions
Unlike the rest of the world, as soon as COVID-19 was declared by WHO as a global
concern, African states became tactical in their response as they initiated strategies
to tackle the virus and every country went on red alert. Strict measures including
travel restrictions, lockdown, and cancellation/limitation on the number of persons
at public gatherings were imposed earlier. The immediate shutdown of their respective
economies was highly criticized by the rest of the world, and had a lot of negative
effects on their already struggling economies but, slowed the spread of the virus
(4). Rwanda, for instance, took one of the most aggressive measures as it canceled
all flights from China on January 31, 2020 and later suspended all flights, closed
its borders, and told residents to remain indoors. The rest of the world, however,
took a longer time to shut down their economies and by the time they did, the virus
had already gained dominance (4).
Solidarity Between African States
Africans have always been united in the fight against epidemics and pandemics and
this has been the same for COVID-19 (4, 5). Since the emergence of the virus, African
leaders have held several virtual meetings to discuss the continent's response to
the pandemic. The private sector in many African countries has donated generously
to COVID-19 solidarity funds and the African Center for Disease Control and Prevention
(Africa CDC) has shown leadership in supporting the continent's response.
Experience From Past Pandemics and Epidemics
The continent had learned her bitter lessons from previous pandemics such as Ebola,
cholera, influenza and HIV/AIDS. As such African governments took aggressive preventive
measures before they even had their first confirmed cases. Her response to these pandemics
and epidemics had taught her to invest in more resilient health systems as well as
put in place strong and effective surveillance mechanisms and coordination reflexes
to cope with future epidemics and pandemics (4). In the aftermath of the Ebola crisis,
the World Bank launched the Regional Disease Surveillance Systems Enhancement (REDISSE)
Project to strengthen health systems and support effective disease surveillance in
16 West and Central African countries. The first laboratory on the continent to be
accredited by the WHO for the testing of COVID-19 cases was the Institute Pasteur
in Dakar. The team of the institute started preparing in January 2020 before even
the first cases were recorded in Africa as the laboratory was used in handling previous
disease outbreaks (6). Also, countries such as Nigeria and Cameroon used lessons learned
from the Ebola epidemic to quickly set isolation clinics to treat solely COVID-19
patients (4).
The Use of Traditional Medicines
While the rest of the world was waiting for the development of some clinically tested
treatment, Africans did not wait for their government to propose biomedical treatment
developed elsewhere. Traditional medicine is the foundation of healthcare in Africa.
It is comprised largely of herbal medications. Also making up the majority of alternative
medicine, herbal medications constitute the backbone of many African countries with
poorly resourced orthodox healthcare systems. The use of traditional herbal medicine,
thus, increased greatly in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic as many more people
turned to herbs believing it treats and prevents many diseases. There has been a lot
of misinterpretation regarding the use of herbal plants all across Africa. With no
known cure for COVID-19, Africa took the lead with herbal medicine, notably in Madagascar
and Cameroon (7, 8). The president of Madagascar, Andry Rajoelina, for instance, approved
a locally manufactured herbal tonic called COVID Organics (CVO) for the prevention
and treatment of COVID-19. Made from the Artemisia plant that contains antimalarial
properties, the president hailed COVID Organics as the panacea for COVID-19 in April
2020. Many other African countries including the Republic of the Congo, Equatorial
Guinea, Tanzania, and Guinea Bissau went ahead to order the herbal medicine in a show
of solidarity. In Cameroon, a Catholic Archbishop Kleda announced the successful treatment
of COVID-19 patients with a herbal mixture which principally targets respiratory problems
associated with the disease. The mixture is given free of charge in catholic health
centers after apparent presentation of positive results. The ministry of public health
in Cameroon has recently authorized the commercialization of 4 traditional medicines
as adjuvant therapies against COVID-19 (8). African traditional medicine needs intensive
research investments. This has neither been prioritized by African governments themselves,
nor the “international community.” Generating evidence with robust research (for instance
Randomized Controlled Trials) to showcase the effectiveness of these medicines will
constitute a strong advocacy tool to enhance ownership, trust, and respect. Though
highly criticized, most African countries adopted the Chloroquine—Azithromycine protocol
in managing COVID-19 patients. Findings from clinical trials elsewhere have almost
been conclusive on the fact that this protocol failed to neither improve health outcomes
nor reduce deaths (9, 10). However, no robust clinical trials have systematically
investigated patient outcomes on this protocol in Africa. In a recent prediction model
study, countries rated as better prepared and having more resilient health systems
in Sub–Saharan Africa were worst affected by the disease (11). It is known that social
distancing measures and protective measures like wearing of face masks are poorly
respected in most populated African states. The current vaccination trends remain
low in SSA. Common sense warrants death and hospitalization rates to be highest in
this region of the world, despite the reported circulation of the delta variant of
the virus. The resistance to this doom is worth investigating.
The Research Imperative
The reality presented by the failed predictions of doom for the African continent
regarding the COVID-19 pandemic showcase global health hypocrisy and the fact that
global health justice in research is a meaningless concept (12). A robust research
agenda with accompanying funding should have been put in place to understand this
unexpected resistance to COVID-19. In a modeling study by Haug et al. intrusive and
drastic interventions like national lockdowns are not always more effective than less
disruptive interventions (13). Indeed, health policies put in place in high income
countries (school lockdowns and travel restrictions for instance) were non-uniform
within and across respective states. It is impossible today to state with precision
which possibility or implementation actually worked (14). The hypothesis put forward
by in this commentary by Adams and colleagues (4) are proof of the fact that understanding
the less than expected infection and death rates from COVID-19 in Africa should constitute
a research priority. The demographic structure and health system weaknesses of the
region were known before the predictions of doom were made. Braving the odds (resisting)
therefore warrants evidence-based explanations and should constitute a priority for
learning for Africa and the rest of the world. Not investing adequately in research
to understand why Africa stood strong in the face of this pandemic will be a glaring
example of global health injustice in research. Africa undoubtedly needs to work extremely
hard to come up with its own health system priority setting and strengthening models
(5). Imported models insensitive to the sociocultural and economic realities are not
very much needed. The fact that early predictions failed is no excuse to go comfortable
with existing measures put in place.
Conclusion
Since its emergence in December 2019 in China, COVID-19 has ravaged countries across
the globe with disturbingly high mortality and morbidity rates. While there were predictions
of Africa bearing the heaviest COVID-19 related morbidity and mortality globally,
this never happened. Explanations for this resistance have mainly been on a hypothetical
frame. Ignoring this “African Resistance” against COVID-19 as a research priority
is proof of astute injustice in global health research. Africa and the international
community stand to gain with a deeper understanding of why the expected doom never
came. This might be useful in preparing for future pandemics. COVID-19 is still here.
Staying focused on prevention and avoiding community transmission, testing and contact
tracing, case management, stepping up vaccination, and investing in research are priority
action areas to successfully fight the pandemic.
Author Contributions
All authors listed have made a substantial, direct, and intellectual contribution
to the work and approved it for publication.
Conflict of Interest
The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial
or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.
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