The Past and Future Trends of Heat Stress Based On Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Index in Outdoor Environment of Tehran City, Iran

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Abstract

Background:

The workers who are working in the open and warm environments are at risk of health effects of climate and heat changes. It is expected that the risk is increase with global warming. This study aimed to investigate the changes of Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) index in the past and to predict their trend of future changes in Tehran, capital of Iran.

Methods:

The meteorological data recorded in Tehran, Iran during the statistical period between 1961 and 2009 were obtained from the Iran Meteorological Organization and based on them, WBGT index was calculated and processed using Man-Kendall correlation test.

Results:

The results of Man-Kendall correlation test showed that the trend of changes of annual mean WBGT during the statistical period under study (1961–2009) has been significantly increasing. In addition, the result of proposed predictive model estimated that an increase of about 1.55 degree in WBGT index will be seen over 40 years from 2009 to 2050 in Tehran.

Conclusion:

Climate change in Tehran has had an effect on person’s exposure to heat stresses consistent with global warming.

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Most cited references 6

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UTCI--why another thermal index?

George Havenith, R Dear, Gerd Jendritzky (2012)

Existing procedures for the assessment of the thermal environment in the fields of public weather services, public health systems, precautionary planning, urban design, tourism and recreation and climate impact research exhibit significant shortcomings. This is most evident for simple (mostly two-parameter) indices, when comparing them to complete heat budget models developed since the 1960s. ISB Commission 6 took up the idea of developing a Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) based on the most advanced multi-node model of thermoregulation representing progress in science within the last three to four decades, both in thermo-physiological and heat exchange theory. Creating the essential research synergies for the development of UTCI required pooling the resources of multidisciplinary experts in the fields of thermal physiology, mathematical modelling, occupational medicine, meteorological data handling (in particular radiation modelling) and application development in a network. It was possible to extend the expertise of ISB Commission 6 substantially by COST (a European programme promoting Cooperation in Science and Technology) Action 730 so that finally over 45 scientists from 23 countries (Australia, Canada, Israel, several Europe countries, New Zealand, and the United States) worked together. The work was performed under the umbrella of the WMO Commission on Climatology (CCl). After extensive evaluations, Fiala's multi-node human physiology and thermal comfort model (FPC) was adopted for this study. The model was validated extensively, applying as yet unused data from other research groups, and extended for the purposes of the project. This model was coupled with a state-of-the-art clothing model taking into consideration behavioural adaptation of clothing insulation by the general urban population in response to actual environmental temperature. UTCI was then derived conceptually as an equivalent temperature (ET). Thus, for any combination of air temperature, wind, radiation, and humidity (stress), UTCI is defined as the isothermal air temperature of the reference condition that would elicit the same dynamic response (strain) of the physiological model. As UTCI is based on contemporary science its use will standardise applications in the major fields of human biometeorology, thus making research results comparable and physiologically relevant.

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Comparison of UTCI to selected thermal indices

Krzysztof Blazejczyk, Yoram Epstein, Gerd Jendritzky … (2011)

Over the past century more than 100 indices have been developed and used to assess bioclimatic conditions for human beings. The majority of these indices are used sporadically or for specific purposes. Some are based on generalized results of measurements (wind chill, cooling power, wet bulb temperature) and some on the empirically observed reactions of the human body to thermal stress (physiological strain, effective temperature). Those indices that are based on human heat balance considerations are referred to as "rational indices". Several simple human heat balance models are known and are used in research and practice. This paper presents a comparative analysis of the newly developed Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), and some of the more prevalent thermal indices. The analysis is based on three groups of data: global data-set, synoptic datasets from Europe, and local scale data from special measurement campaigns of COST Action 730. We found the present indices to express bioclimatic conditions reasonably only under specific meteorological situations, while the UTCI represents specific climates, weather, and locations much better. Furthermore, similar to the human body, the UTCI is very sensitive to changes in ambient stimuli: temperature, solar radiation, wind and humidity. UTCI depicts temporal variability of thermal conditions better than other indices. The UTCI scale is able to express even slight differences in the intensity of meteorological stimuli.

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An initial assessment of the bioclimatic comfort in an outdoor public space in Lisbon.

Débora Oliveira, Franco Leite (2007)

This paper describes the application of a methodology designed to analyse the relationship between climatic conditions and the perception of bioclimatic comfort. The experiment consisted of conducting simultaneous questionnaire surveys and weather measurements during 2 sunny spring days in an open urban area in Lisbon. The results showed that under outdoor conditions, thermal comfort can be maintained with temperatures well above the standard values defined for indoor conditions. There seems to be a spontaneous adaptation in terms of clothing whenever the physiological equivalent temperature threshold of 31 degrees C is surpassed. The perception of air temperature is difficult to separate from the perception of the thermal environment and is modified by other parameters, particularly wind. The perception of solar radiation is related to the intensity of fluxes from various directions (i.e. falling upon both vertical and horizontal surfaces), weighted by the coefficients of incidence upon the human body. Wind was found to be the most intensely perceived variable, usually negatively. Wind perception depends largely on the extreme values of wind speed and wind variability. Women showed a stronger negative reaction to high wind speed than men. The experiment proved that this methodology is well-suited to achieving the proposed objectives and that it may be applied in other areas and in other seasons.

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Author and article information

Journal

Journal ID (nlm-ta): Iran J Public Health

Journal ID (iso-abbrev): Iran. J. Public Health

Journal ID (publisher-id): IJPH

Journal ID (pmc): IJPH

Title: Iranian Journal of Public Health

Publisher: Tehran University of Medical Sciences

ISSN (Print): 2251-6085

ISSN (Electronic): 2251-6093

Publication date (Print): June 2016

Volume: 45

Issue: 6

Pages: 787-794

Affiliations

[1. ]Dept. of Occupational Health Engineering, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

[2. ]Dept. of Occupational Health Engineering, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

[3. ]Dept. of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

Author notes

[* ] Corresponding Author: Email: fgolbabaei@ 123456sina.tums.ac.ir

Article

Publisher ID: ijph-45-787

PMC ID: 5026835

SO-VID: 9c232dc2-4d18-4d33-b6f9-80fd23a1217b

License:

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported License which allows users to read, copy, distribute and make derivative works for non-commercial purposes from the material, as long as the author of the original work is cited properly.

The Past and Future Trends of Heat Stress Based On Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Index in Outdoor Environment of Tehran City, Iran

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Abstract

Background:

Methods:

Results:

Conclusion:

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Climate Change and Human Health

Most cited references 6

UTCI--why another thermal index?

Comparison of UTCI to selected thermal indices

An initial assessment of the bioclimatic comfort in an outdoor public space in Lisbon.

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