12
views
0
recommends
+1 Recommend
0 collections
    0
    shares
      • Record: found
      • Abstract: found
      • Article: not found

      The concept of probability in safety assessments of technological systems.

      1
      Science (New York, N.Y.)

      Read this article at

      ScienceOpenPublisherPubMed
      Bookmark
          There is no author summary for this article yet. Authors can add summaries to their articles on ScienceOpen to make them more accessible to a non-specialist audience.

          Abstract

          Safety assessments of technological systems, such as nuclear power plants, chemical process facilities, and hazardous waste repositories, require the investigation of the occurrence and consequences of rare events. The subjectivistic (Bayesian) theory of probability is the appropriate framework within which expert opinions, which are essential to the quantification process, can be combined with experimental results and statistical observations to produce quantitative measures of the risks from these systems. A distinction is made between uncertainties in physical models and state-of-knowledge uncertainties about the parameters and assumptions of these models. The proper role of past and future relative frequencies and several issues associated with elicitation and use of expert opinions are discussed.

          Related collections

          Author and article information

          Journal
          Science
          Science (New York, N.Y.)
          0036-8075
          0036-8075
          Dec 7 1990
          : 250
          : 4986
          Affiliations
          [1 ] Mechanical, Aerospace, and Nuclear Engineering Department, University of California, Los Angeles 90024.
          Article
          10.1126/science.2255906
          2255906
          9da417b0-ec7a-48af-af2d-2303ddbd7465
          History

          Comments

          Comment on this article