Modeling the epidemiological impact of the UNAIDS 2025 targets to end AIDS as a public health threat by 2030

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Abstract

Background

UNAIDS has established new program targets for 2025 to achieve the goal of eliminating AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. This study reports on efforts to use mathematical models to estimate the impact of achieving those targets.

Methods and findings

We simulated the impact of achieving the targets at country level using the Goals model, a mathematical simulation model of HIV epidemic dynamics that includes the impact of prevention and treatment interventions. For 77 high-burden countries, we fit the model to surveillance and survey data for 1970 to 2020 and then projected the impact of achieving the targets for the period 2019 to 2030. Results from these 77 countries were extrapolated to produce estimates for 96 others. Goals model results were checked by comparing against projections done with the Optima HIV model and the AIDS Epidemic Model (AEM) for selected countries. We included estimates of the impact of societal enablers (access to justice and law reform, stigma and discrimination elimination, and gender equality) and the impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Results show that achieving the 2025 targets would reduce new annual infections by 83% (71% to 86% across regions) and AIDS-related deaths by 78% (67% to 81% across regions) by 2025 compared to 2010. Lack of progress on societal enablers could endanger these achievements and result in as many as 2.6 million (44%) cumulative additional new HIV infections and 440,000 (54%) more AIDS-related deaths between 2020 and 2030 compared to full achievement of all targets. COVID-19–related disruptions could increase new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 10% in the next 2 years, but targets could still be achieved by 2025. Study limitations include the reliance on self-reports for most data on behaviors, the use of intervention effect sizes from published studies that may overstate intervention impacts outside of controlled study settings, and the use of proxy countries to estimate the impact in countries with fewer than 4,000 annual HIV infections.

Conclusions

The new targets for 2025 build on the progress made since 2010 and represent ambitious short-term goals. Achieving these targets would bring us close to the goals of reducing new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 90% between 2010 and 2030. By 2025, global new infections and AIDS deaths would drop to 4.4 and 3.9 per 100,000 population, and the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) would be declining. There would be 32 million people on treatment, and they would need continuing support for their lifetime. Incidence for the total global population would be below 0.15% everywhere. The number of PLHIV would start declining by 2023.

Abstract

John Stover and co-workers assess the potential health impacts of UNAIDS’ HIV/AIDS targets.

Author summary

Why was this study done?

The previous UNAIDS strategic plan expired in 2020, creating a need for a new plan to guide efforts for the next 5 years.
Modeling contributed to the development of the new plan by assessing the epidemiological impact of proposed intervention coverage targets and estimating the financial resources needed to achieve them.

What did the researchers do and find?

We applied mathematical simulation models to 77 high HIV burden countries to examine the effects of the proposed intervention coverage targets on trends in new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths. The results were extended to a total of 173 countries to provide a comprehensive global analysis.
Results show that achieving the 2025 targets would reduce new annual infections by 83% (71% to 86% across regions) and AIDS-related deaths by 78% (67% to 81% across regions) by 2025 compared to 2010.
Progress on societal enablers (access to justice, prevention of stigma and discrimination, and prevention of gender-based violence [GBV]) is essential to achieve these targets.
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)–related disruptions could increase new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths in the short term, but targets could still be achieved by 2025.

What do these findings mean?

Although global efforts have failed to achieve the ambitious 2020 targets, it is still possible to achieve the 2030 goal of eliminating AIDS as a public health threat.
Many of the 2025 intervention coverage targets have already been achieved in some settings. Additional effort is required to accelerate progress in all countries and in all populations.

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Most cited references 27

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Impact of HIV-related stigma on treatment adherence: systematic review and meta-synthesis

Ingrid T. Katz, Annemarie Ryu, Afiachukwu Onuegbu … (2013)

Introduction Adherence to HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART) is a critical determinant of HIV-1 RNA viral suppression and health outcomes. It is generally accepted that HIV-related stigma is correlated with factors that may undermine ART adherence, but its relationship with ART adherence itself is not well established. We therefore undertook this review to systematically assess the relationship between HIV-related stigma and ART adherence. Methods We searched nine electronic databases for published and unpublished literature, with no language restrictions. First we screened the titles and abstracts for studies that potentially contained data on ART adherence. Then we reviewed the full text of these studies to identify articles that reported data on the relationship between ART adherence and either HIV-related stigma or serostatus disclosure. We used the method of meta-synthesis to summarize the findings from the qualitative studies. Results Our search protocol yielded 14,854 initial records. After eliminating duplicates and screening the titles and abstracts, we retrieved the full text of 960 journal articles, dissertations and unpublished conference abstracts for review. We included 75 studies conducted among 26,715 HIV-positive persons living in 32 countries worldwide, with less representation of work from Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Among the 34 qualitative studies, our meta-synthesis identified five distinct third-order labels through an inductive process that we categorized as themes and organized in a conceptual model spanning intrapersonal, interpersonal and structural levels. HIV-related stigma undermined ART adherence by compromising general psychological processes, such as adaptive coping and social support. We also identified psychological processes specific to HIV-positive persons driven by predominant stigmatizing attitudes and which undermined adherence, such as internalized stigma and concealment. Adaptive coping and social support were critical determinants of participants’ ability to overcome the structural and economic barriers associated with poverty in order to successfully adhere to ART. Among the 41 quantitative studies, 24 of 33 cross-sectional studies (71%) reported a positive finding between HIV stigma and ART non-adherence, while 6 of 7 longitudinal studies (86%) reported a null finding (Pearson's χ 2=7.7; p=0.005). Conclusions We found that HIV-related stigma compromised participants’ abilities to successfully adhere to ART. Interventions to reduce stigma should target multiple levels of influence (intrapersonal, interpersonal and structural) in order to have maximum effectiveness on improving ART adherence.

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Potential effects of disruption to HIV programmes in sub-Saharan Africa caused by COVID-19: results from multiple mathematical models

Britta Jewell, Edinah Mudimu, John Stover … (2020)

Summary Background The COVID-19 pandemic could lead to disruptions to provision of HIV services for people living with HIV and those at risk of acquiring HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, where UNAIDS estimated that more than two-thirds of the approximately 38 million people living with HIV resided in 2018. We aimed to predict the potential effects of such disruptions on HIV-related deaths and new infections in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods In this modelling study, we used five well described models of HIV epidemics (Goals, Optima HIV, HIV Synthesis, an Imperial College London model, and Epidemiological MODeling software [EMOD]) to estimate the effect of various potential disruptions to HIV prevention, testing, and treatment services on HIV-related deaths and new infections in sub-Saharan Africa lasting 6 months over 1 year from April 1, 2020. We considered scenarios in which disruptions affected 20%, 50%, and 100% of the population. Findings A 6-month interruption of supply of antiretroviral therapy (ART) drugs across 50% of the population of people living with HIV who are on treatment would be expected to lead to a 1·63 times (median across models; range 1·39–1·87) increase in HIV-related deaths over a 1-year period compared with no disruption. In sub-Saharan Africa, this increase amounts to a median excess of HIV deaths, across all model estimates, of 296 000 (range 229 023–420 000) if such a high level of disruption occurred. Interruption of ART would increase mother-to-child transmission of HIV by approximately 1·6 times. Although an interruption in the supply of ART drugs would have the largest impact of any potential disruptions, effects of poorer clinical care due to overstretched health facilities, interruptions of supply of other drugs such as co-trimoxazole, and suspension of HIV testing would all have a substantial effect on population-level mortality (up to a 1·06 times increase in HIV-related deaths over a 1-year period due to disruptions affecting 50% of the population compared with no disruption). Interruption to condom supplies and peer education would make populations more susceptible to increases in HIV incidence, although physical distancing measures could lead to reductions in risky sexual behaviour (up to 1·19 times increase in new HIV infections over a 1-year period if 50% of people are affected). Interpretation During the COVID-19 pandemic, the primary priority for governments, donors, suppliers, and communities should focus on maintaining uninterrupted supply of ART drugs for people with HIV to avoid additional HIV-related deaths. The provision of other HIV prevention measures is also important to prevent any increase in HIV incidence. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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Global epidemiology of HIV among female sex workers: influence of structural determinants.

Kate Shannon, Steffanie A Strathdee, Shira Goldenberg … (2015)

Female sex workers (FSWs) bear a disproportionately large burden of HIV infection worldwide. Despite decades of research and programme activity, the epidemiology of HIV and the role that structural determinants have in mitigating or potentiating HIV epidemics and access to care for FSWs is poorly understood. We reviewed available published data for HIV prevalence and incidence, condom use, and structural determinants among this group. Only 87 (43%) of 204 unique studies reviewed explicitly examined structural determinants of HIV. Most studies were from Asia, with few from areas with a heavy burden of HIV such as sub-Saharan Africa, Russia, and eastern Europe. To further explore the potential effect of structural determinants on the course of epidemics, we used a deterministic transmission model to simulate potential HIV infections averted through structural changes in regions with concentrated and generalised epidemics, and high HIV prevalence among FSWs. This modelling suggested that elimination of sexual violence alone could avert 17% of HIV infections in Kenya (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1-31) and 20% in Canada (95% UI 3-39) through its immediate and sustained effect on non-condom use) among FSWs and their clients in the next decade. In Kenya, scaling up of access to antiretroviral therapy among FSWs and their clients to meet WHO eligibility of a CD4 cell count of less than 500 cells per μL could avert 34% (95% UI 25-42) of infections and even modest coverage of sex worker-led outreach could avert 20% (95% UI 8-36) of infections in the next decade. Decriminalisation of sex work would have the greatest effect on the course of HIV epidemics across all settings, averting 33-46% of HIV infections in the next decade. Multipronged structural and community-led interventions are crucial to increase access to prevention and treatment and to promote human rights for FSWs worldwide.

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Author and article information

Contributors

John Stover:

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7236-1989

Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: Funding acquisitionRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: Project administrationRole: ResourcesRole: SoftwareRole: SupervisionRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing

Robert Glaubius:

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4936-0264

Role: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: MethodologyRole: SoftwareRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – review & editing

Yu Teng: Role: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: MethodologyRole: SoftwareRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – review & editing

Sherrie Kelly: Role: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: MethodologyRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing

Tim Brown: Role: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: MethodologyRole: SoftwareRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing

Timothy B. Hallett:

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9681-0424