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      Mood and the Market: Can Press Reports of Investors' Mood Predict Stock Prices?

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          Abstract

          We examined whether press reports on the collective mood of investors can predict changes in stock prices. We collected data on the use of emotion words in newspaper reports on traders' affect, coded these emotion words according to their location on an affective circumplex in terms of pleasantness and activation level, and created indices of collective mood for each trading day. Then, by using time series analyses, we examined whether these mood indices, depicting investors' emotion on a given trading day, could predict the next day's opening price of the stock market. The strongest findings showed that activated pleasant mood predicted increases in NASDAQ prices, while activated unpleasant mood predicted decreases in NASDAQ prices. We conclude that both valence and activation levels of collective mood are important in predicting trend continuation in stock prices.

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          Judgment under emotional certainty and uncertainty: the effects of specific emotions on information processing.

          Larissa Tiedens, Susan Linton (2001)
          The authors argued that emotions characterized by certainty appraisals promote heuristic processing, whereas emotions characterized by uncertainty appraisals result in systematic processing. The 1st experiment demonstrated that the certainty associated with an emotion affects the certainty experienced in subsequent situations. The next 3 experiments investigated effects on processing of emotions associated with certainty and uncertainty. Compared with emotions associated with uncertainty, emotions associated with certainty resulted in greater reliance on the expertise of a source of a persuasive message in Experiment 2, more stereotyping in Experiment 3, and less attention to argument quality in Experiment 4. In contrast to previous theories linking valence and processing, these findings suggest that the certainty appraisal content of emotions is also important in determining whether people engage in systematic or heuristic processing.
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            Toward a consensual structure of mood.

            D. Watson, A Tellegen (1985)
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              All Negative Moods Are Not Equal: Motivational Influences of Anxiety and Sadness on Decision Making.

              Raghunathan, Pham, Rajgopal Raghunathan (1999)
              Affective states of the same valence may have distinct, yet predictable, influences on decision processes. Results from three experiments show that, in gambling decisions, as well as in job-selection decisions, sad individuals are biased in favor of high-risk/high-reward options, whereas anxious individuals are biased in favor of low-risk/low-reward options. We argue that these biases occur because anxiety and sadness convey distinct types of information to the decision-maker and prime different goals. While anxiety primes an implicit goal of uncertainty reduction, sadness primes an implicit goal of reward replacement. We offer that these motivational influences operate through an active process of feeling monitoring, whereby anxious or sad individuals think about the options and ask themselves, "What would I feel better about ellipsis?" Copyright 1999 Academic Press.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Alejandro Raul Hernandez Montoya: Role: Editor
                Journal
                Journal ID (nlm-ta): PLoS One
                Journal ID (iso-abbrev): PLoS ONE
                Journal ID (publisher-id): plos
                Journal ID (pmc): plosone
                Title: PLoS ONE
                Publisher: Public Library of Science (San Francisco, USA )
                ISSN (Electronic): 1932-6203
                Publication date Collection: 2013
                Publication date (Electronic): 28 August 2013
                Volume: 8
                Issue: 8
                Electronic Location Identifier: e72031
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Department of Psychology, Baruch College and Graduate Center, City University of New York, New York, New York, United States of America
                [2 ]Warrington College of Business Administration, University of Florida, Gainesville, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
                [3 ]Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America
                Universidad Veracruzana, Mexico
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                Conceived and designed the experiments: BMS YCC. Performed the experiments: YCC. Analyzed the data: CAS BMS YCC JDKM. Wrote the paper: YCC BMS. Paid publications cost: BMS.

                [¤]

                Current address: Department of Work and Organizations, Carlson School of Management, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, United States of America

                Article
                Publisher ID: PONE-D-13-12636
                DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0072031
                PMC ID: 3756040
                PubMed ID: 24015202
                SO-VID: 9ed74ea6-0bc4-4936-815f-b1d2172b4c6d
                Copyright statement: Copyright @ 2013
                License:

                This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

                History
                Date received : 24 March 2013
                Date accepted : 3 July 2013
                Page count
                Pages: 15
                Funding
                Baruch College, Weissman School of Arts and Sciences, provided release time for research for the first author. The funder had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
                Categories
                Subject: Research Article
                Subject: Social and Behavioral Sciences
                Subject: Economics
                Subject: Economic History
                Subject: Psychology
                Subject: Behavior
                Subject: Emotions
                Subject: Human Performance
                Subject: Applied Psychology
                Subject: Human Relations
                Subject: Social Psychology
                Subject: Sociology
                Subject: Social Research
                Subject: Social Theory

                ScienceOpen disciplines: Uncategorized
                Data availability:
                ScienceOpen disciplines: Uncategorized

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