Breast cancer in Marin County

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Abstract

Two articles previously published in Breast Cancer Research illustrate the high rates of breast cancer in Marin County, a wealthy, urban county immediately northwest of the city of San Francisco. I herein comment on these articles, and on the political/psychological/scientific dilemma presented by regions with high cancer rates, such as Marin County. I discuss possible causes for such cancer 'clusters', and conclude with some thoughts about the future.

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Most cited references 12

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Breast cancer clusters in the northeast United States: a geographic analysis.

Martin Kulldorff, Justin Miller, Eric Feuer … (1997)

High breast cancer mortality rates have been reported in the northeastern part of the United States, with recent attention focused on Long Island, New York. In this study, the authors investigate whether the high breast cancer mortality is evenly spread over the Northeast, in the sense that any observed clusters of deaths can be explained by chance alone, or whether there are clusters of statistical significance. Demographic data and age-specific breast cancer mortality rates for women were obtained for all 244 counties in 11 northeastern states and for the District of Columbia for 1988-1992. A recently developed spatial scan statistic is used, which searches for clusters of cases without specifying their size or location ahead of time, and which tests for their statistical significance while adjusting for the multiple testing inherent in such a procedure. The basic analysis is adjusted for age, with further analyses examining how the results are affected by incorporating race, urbanicity, and parity as confounding variables. There is a statistically significant and geographically broad cluster of breast cancer deaths in the New York City-Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, metropolitan area (p = 0.0001), which has a 7.4% higher mortality rate than the rest of the Northeast. The cluster remains significant when race, urbanicity, and/or parity are included as confounding variables. Four smaller subclusters within this area are also significant on their own strength: Philadelphia with suburbs (p = 0.0001), Long Island (p = 0.0001), central New Jersey (p = 0.0001), and northeastern New Jersey (p = 0.0001). The elevated breast cancer mortality on Long Island might be viewed less as a unique local phenomenon and more as part of a more general situation involving large parts of the New York City-Philadelphia metropolitan area. The several known and hypothesized risk factors for which we could not adjust and that may explain the detected cluster are most notably age at first birth, age at menarche, age at menopause, breastfeeding, genetic mutations, and environmental factors.

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Proportion of breast cancer cases in the United States explained by well-established risk factors.

M. P. Madigan, R G Ziegler, J Benichou … (1995)

Few estimates of the fraction of cases of breast cancer attributable to recognized risk factors have been published. All estimates are based on selected groups, making their generalizability to the U.S. population uncertain. Our goal was to estimate the fraction of breast cancer cases in the United States attributable to well-established risk factors (i.e., later age at first birth, nulliparity, higher family income, and first-degree family history of breast cancer), using data from the first National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES I) Epidemiologic Follow-up Study (NHEFS), the survey and follow-up of a probability sample of the U.S. population. From a cohort of 7508 female participants surveyed in the early 1970s, and followed up between 1982 and 1984 and again in 1987, 193 breast cancer cases were accrued for study. We calculated incidence rates, relative risks (RRs), and population attributable risks (PARs) for breast cancer risk factors and extended our results to the U.S. female population by using sample weights from the NHANES I survey. Our PAR estimates suggest that later age at first birth and nulliparity accounted for a large fraction of U.S. breast cancer cases, 29.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 5.6%-53.3%); higher income contributed 18.9% (95% CI = -4.3% to 42.1%), and family history of breast cancer accounted for 9.1% (95% CI = 3.0%-15.2%). Taken together, these well-established risk factors accounted for approximately 47% (95% CI = 17%-77%) of breast cancer cases in the NHEFS cohort and about 41% (95% CI = 2%-80%) in the U.S. population. The RRs for most of these risk factors were modest, but their prevalence as a group was high, leading to estimates that suggest that a substantial proportion of breast cancer cases in the United States are explained by well-established risk factors. Elucidation of the determinants underlying recognized factors and study of other factors that may confer risk or protection are needed in efforts to advance understanding of breast cancer etiology and to aid in devising strategies for prevention.

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High constant incidence in twins and other relatives of women with breast cancer.

Thomas J Peto, T Mack (2000)

The incidence of breast cancer rises steeply between ages 25 and 50, and more slowly thereafter. In contrast, the incidence in the unaffected (contralateral) breast of women who have had breast cancer remains constant at about 0.7% per year for at least the next 20 years after diagnosis, irrespective of age at first diagnosis. The incidence in relatives of the patients seems to show a similar pattern. The incidence in a prospective study of monozygotic twins of patients was approximately constant at 1.3% per year (77 cases), again about 0.7% per breast. At ages older than a patient's age at diagnosis, her mother and sisters have an incidence of 0.3-0.4% per year. Above the index patient's age at diagnosis, the rate in relatives shows no temporal trend and is independent of the patient's age at diagnosis. A statistically simple explanation is that incidence in susceptible women increases to a high constant level by a predetermined age that varies between families, but this seems inconsistent with conventional models of carcinogenesis and susceptibility. The very high incidence in monozygotic twins of patients indicates that a high proportion, and perhaps the majority, of breast cancers arise in a susceptible minority of women.

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Journal

Journal ID (nlm-ta): Breast Cancer Res

Title: Breast Cancer Research

Publisher: BioMed Central (London )

ISSN (Print): 1465-5411

ISSN (Electronic): 1465-542X

Publication date (Print): 2003

Publication date (Electronic): 28 July 2003

Volume: 5

Issue: 5

Pages: 232-234

Affiliations

[1 ]Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California, USA

Article

Publisher ID: bcr633

PMC ID: 314435

PubMed ID: 12927030

SO-VID: 9f01d78c-5752-439a-989d-6f87d1fcf0ec

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Breast cancer in Marin County

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Karger: Oncology

Most cited references 12

Breast cancer clusters in the northeast United States: a geographic analysis.

Proportion of breast cancer cases in the United States explained by well-established risk factors.

High constant incidence in twins and other relatives of women with breast cancer.

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