Statistical Significance of Precursory Gravity Changes Before the 2011 M w  9.0 Tohoku‐Oki Earthquake

Monthly gravity field estimates made by the twin Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have a geoid height accuracy of 2 to 3 millimeters at a spatial resolution as small as 400 kilometers. The annual cycle in the geoid variations, up to 10 millimeters in some regions, peaked predominantly in the spring and fall seasons. Geoid variations observed over South America that can be largely attributed to surface water and groundwater changes show a clear separation between the large Amazon watershed and the smaller watersheds to the north. Such observations will help hydrologists to connect processes at traditional length scales (tens of kilometers or less) to those at regional and global scales.

Many large earthquakes are preceded by one or more foreshocks, but it is unclear how these foreshocks relate to the nucleation process of the mainshock. On the basis of an earthquake catalog created using a waveform correlation technique, we identified two distinct sequences of foreshocks migrating at rates of 2 to 10 kilometers per day along the trench axis toward the epicenter of the 2011 moment magnitude (M(w)) 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan. The time history of quasi-static slip along the plate interface, based on small repeating earthquakes that were part of the migrating seismicity, suggests that two sequences involved slow-slip transients propagating toward the initial rupture point. The second sequence, which involved large slip rates, may have caused substantial stress loading, prompting the unstable dynamic rupture of the mainshock.

Most large earthquakes occur along an oceanic trench, where an oceanic plate subducts beneath a continental plate. Massive earthquakes with a moment magnitude, M(w), of nine have been known to occur in only a few areas, including Chile, Alaska, Kamchatka and Sumatra. No historical records exist of a M(w) = 9 earthquake along the Japan trench, where the Pacific plate subducts beneath the Okhotsk plate, with the possible exception of the ad 869 Jogan earthquake, the magnitude of which has not been well constrained. However, the strain accumulation rate estimated there from recent geodetic observations is much higher than the average strain rate released in previous interplate earthquakes. This finding raises the question of how such areas release the accumulated strain. A megathrust earthquake with M(w) = 9.0 (hereafter referred to as the Tohoku-Oki earthquake) occurred on 11 March 2011, rupturing the plate boundary off the Pacific coast of northeastern Japan. Here we report the distributions of the coseismic slip and postseismic slip as determined from ground displacement detected using a network based on the Global Positioning System. The coseismic slip area extends approximately 400 km along the Japan trench, matching the area of the pre-seismic locked zone. The afterslip has begun to overlap the coseismic slip area and extends into the surrounding region. In particular, the afterslip area reached a depth of approximately 100 km, with M(w) = 8.3, on 25 March 2011. Because the Tohoku-Oki earthquake released the strain accumulated for several hundred years, the paradox of the strain budget imbalance may be partly resolved. This earthquake reminds us of the potential for M(w) ≈ 9 earthquakes to occur along other trench systems, even if no past evidence of such events exists. Therefore, it is imperative that strain accumulation be monitored using a space geodetic technique to assess earthquake potential.