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A Synthesis of Hepatitis C prevalence estimates in Sub-Saharan Africa: 2000–2013

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      Abstract

      Background

      Hepatitis C (HCV) is a deleterious virus that can be cured with new, highly effective anti-viral treatments, yet more than 185 million individuals worldwide remain HCV positive (with the vast majority un-diagnosed or untreated). Of importance, HCV is a leading cause of chronic liver disease and liver cancer, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where the prevalence remains high but uncertain due to little population-based evidence of the epidemic. We aimed to synthesize available data to calculate and highlight the HCV disease burden in SSA.

      Methods

      Weighted random-effects generalized linear mixed models were used to estimate prevalence by risk cohort, African region (Southern, Eastern, Western, and Central Africa), type of assay used, publication year, and whether the estimate included children. A pooled prevalence estimate was also calculated. Multi-variable analyses were limited to cohort and region specific prevalence estimates in the adult population due to limited studies including children. Prevalence estimates were additionally weighted using the known adult population size within each region.

      Results

      We included more than 10 years of data. Almost half of the studies on HCV prevalence in SSA were from the Western region (49 %), and over half of all studies were from either blood donor (25 %) or general population cohorts (31 %). In uni-variable analyses, prevalence was lowest in Southern Africa (0.72 %), followed by Eastern Africa at 3.00 %, Western Africa at 4.14 %, and Central Africa at 7.82 %. Blood donors consistently had the lowest prevalence (1.78 %), followed by pregnant women (2.51 %), individuals with comorbid HIV (3.57 %), individuals from the general population (5.41 %), those with a chronic illness (7.99 %), and those at high risk for infection (10.18 %). After adjusting for the population size in each region, the overall adult prevalence of HCV in SSA rose from 3.82 to 3.94 %.

      Conclusion

      This meta-analysis offers a timely update to the HCV disease burden in SSA and offers additional evidence of the burgeoning epidemic. The study highlights the need to account for type of cohort and region variation when describing the HCV epidemic in SSA, the need for more studies that include children, as well as the need to factor in such variations when planning public health interventions.

      Electronic supplementary material

      The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-016-1584-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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      Most cited references 13

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      Global epidemiology of hepatitis C virus infection: new estimates of age-specific antibody to HCV seroprevalence.

      In efforts to inform public health decision makers, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 (GBD2010) Study aims to estimate the burden of disease using available parameters. This study was conducted to collect and analyze available prevalence data to be used for estimating the hepatitis C virus (HCV) burden of disease. In this systematic review, antibody to HCV (anti-HCV) seroprevalence data from 232 articles were pooled to estimate age-specific seroprevalence curves in 1990 and 2005, and to produce age-standardized prevalence estimates for each of 21 GBD regions using a model-based meta-analysis. This review finds that globally the prevalence and number of people with anti-HCV has increased from 2.3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 2.1%-2.5%) to 2.8% (95% UI: 2.6%-3.1%) and >122 million to >185 million between 1990 and 2005. Central and East Asia and North Africa/Middle East are estimated to have high prevalence (>3.5%); South and Southeast Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, Andean, Central, and Southern Latin America, Caribbean, Oceania, Australasia, and Central, Eastern, and Western Europe have moderate prevalence (1.5%-3.5%); whereas Asia Pacific, Tropical Latin America, and North America have low prevalence (<1.5%). The high prevalence of global HCV infection necessitates renewed efforts in primary prevention, including vaccine development, as well as new approaches to secondary and tertiary prevention to reduce the burden of chronic liver disease and to improve survival for those who already have evidence of liver disease. Copyright © 2012 American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.
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        Global epidemiology and genotype distribution of the hepatitis C virus infection.

        The treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has the potential to change significantly over the next few years as therapeutic regimens are rapidly evolving. However, the burden of chronic infection has not been quantified at the global level using the most recent data. Updated estimates of HCV prevalence, viremia and genotypes are critical for developing strategies to manage or eliminate HCV infection. To achieve this, a comprehensive literature search was conducted for anti-HCV prevalence, viraemic prevalence and genotypes for all countries. Studies were included based on how well they could be extrapolated to the general population, sample size and the age of the study. Available country estimates were used to develop regional and global estimates. Eighty-seven countries reported anti-HCV prevalence, while HCV viraemic rates were available for fifty-four countries. Total global viraemic HCV infections were estimated at 80 (64-103) million infections. Genotype distribution was available for ninety-eight countries. Globally, genotype 1 (G1) was the most common (46%), followed by G3 (22%), G2 (13%), and G4 (13%). In conclusion, the total number of HCV infections reported here are lower than previous estimates. The exclusion of data from earlier studies conducted at the peak of the HCV epidemic, along with adjustments for reduced prevalence among children, are likely contributors. The results highlight the need for more robust surveillance studies to quantify the HCV disease burden more accurately. Copyright © 2014 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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          Fixed- and random-effects models in meta-analysis.

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            Author and article information

            Affiliations
            [ ]Departments of Medicine and Public Health Sciences, Loyola Stritch School of Medicine, 2160 S. First Ave., Maywood, IL 60153 USA
            [ ]Department of Medicine, Loyola Stritch School of Medicine, 2160 S. First Ave., Maywood, IL 60153 USA
            [ ]Loyola University Chicago Health Science Campus, Fahey Building Room 116, 2160 S. First Ave., Maywood, IL 60153 USA
            Contributors
            jlayden@lumc.edu
            Journal
            BMC Infect Dis
            BMC Infect. Dis
            BMC Infectious Diseases
            BioMed Central (London )
            1471-2334
            13 June 2016
            13 June 2016
            2016
            : 16
            27296465
            4906983
            1584
            10.1186/s12879-016-1584-1
            © Mora et al. 2016

            Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver ( http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.

            Categories
            Research Article
            Custom metadata
            © The Author(s) 2016

            Infectious disease & Microbiology

            sub-saharan, africa, meta-analysis, prevalence, hepatitis, hcv

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