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      Measuring the effectiveness of the Covenant of Mayors on the reporting of climate hazards by Municipalities

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          Abstract

          The European Commission established the Covenant of Mayors (CoM) initiative in 2008, aimed at involving and supporting mayors to encourage accomplishing the European Union (EU) climate mitigation and energy targets. In 2014, the Mayors Adapt initiative was set up in order to promote the climate adaptation pillar. Whereas the mitigation pillar is more developed and peer-reviewed literature can be found, adaptation is still lagging behind, not to mention the absence of information on the effectiveness of the CoM concerning the development of climate adaptation plans. This paper aims at presenting a thorough analysis of climate hazard data declared by CoM signatories as well as the degree of regional agreement of those signatories when reporting climate data. Thus, we assume that the signatories belonging to the same climate region should report similar climate hazard data for both current and future timeframes. Using a new statistical method for measuring the variability of categorical data, we determine that, overall, the signatories show low agreement within climate regions. Hence, we conclude that the CoM, in the corresponding part of climate risk assessment, is not as effective as it could be desired. Furthermore, several recommendations are proposed to improve the current reporting.

          Abstract

          Climate change; Hazards; Agreement; Covenant of mayors; Environmental science; Climatology; Climate policy; Earth sciences; Natural hazard.

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          Most cited references21

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          Will drought events become more frequent and severe in Europe?

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            Anthropogenic warming exacerbates European soil moisture droughts

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              Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard

              Global warming is expected to drive increasing extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along the world’s coastlines. In this work we present probabilistic projections of ESLs for the present century taking into consideration changes in mean sea level, tides, wind-waves, and storm surges. Between the year 2000 and 2100 we project a very likely increase of the global average 100-year ESL of 34–76 cm under a moderate-emission-mitigation-policy scenario and of 58–172 cm under a business as usual scenario. Rising ESLs are mostly driven by thermal expansion, followed by contributions from ice mass-loss from glaciers, and ice-sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Under these scenarios ESL rise would render a large part of the tropics exposed annually to the present-day 100-year event from 2050. By the end of this century this applies to most coastlines around the world, implying unprecedented flood risk levels unless timely adaptation measures are taken.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                Heliyon
                Heliyon
                Heliyon
                Elsevier
                2405-8440
                06 October 2020
                October 2020
                06 October 2020
                : 6
                : 10
                : e05043
                Affiliations
                [1]European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
                Author notes
                []Corresponding author. paulo.barbosa@ 123456ec.europa.eu
                [1]

                All the authors share the first authorship.

                Article
                S2405-8440(20)31886-7 e05043
                10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e05043
                7548427
                a0f865b3-6776-4cc0-8990-dcd97916e52d
                © 2020 The Author(s)

                This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

                History
                : 27 May 2020
                : 7 July 2020
                : 21 September 2020
                Categories
                Research Article

                climate change,hazards,agreement,covenant of mayors,environmental science,climatology,climate policy,earth sciences,natural hazard

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