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      Identifying long-term stable refugia for relict plant species in East Asia

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      Nature Communications
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          Abstract

          Today East Asia harbors many “relict” plant species whose ranges were much larger during the Paleogene-Neogene and earlier. The ecological and climatic conditions suitable for these relict species have not been identified. Here, we map the abundance and distribution patterns of relict species, showing high abundance in the humid subtropical/warm-temperate forest regions. We further use Ecological Niche Modeling to show that these patterns align with maps of climate refugia, and we predict species’ chances of persistence given the future climatic changes expected for East Asia. By 2070, potentially suitable areas with high richness of relict species will decrease, although the areas as a whole will probably expand. We identify areas in southwestern China and northern Vietnam as long-term climatically stable refugia likely to preserve ancient lineages, highlighting areas that could be prioritized for conservation of such species.

          Abstract

          East Asia contains “relict” plant species that persist under narrow climatic conditions after once having wider distributions. Here, using distribution records coupled with ecological niche models, the authors identify long-term stable refugia possessing past, current and future climatic suitability favoring ancient plant lineages.

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          Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions

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            Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas

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              Conserving biodiversity under climate change: the rear edge matters.

              Modern climate change is producing poleward range shifts of numerous taxa, communities and ecosystems worldwide. The response of species to changing environments is likely to be determined largely by population responses at range margins. In contrast to the expanding edge, the low-latitude limit (rear edge) of species ranges remains understudied, and the critical importance of rear edge populations as long-term stores of species' genetic diversity and foci of speciation has been little acknowledged. We review recent findings from the fossil record, phylogeography and ecology to illustrate that rear edge populations are often disproportionately important for the survival and evolution of biota. Their ecological features, dynamics and conservation requirements differ from those of populations in other parts of the range, and some commonly recommended conservation practices might therefore be of little use or even counterproductive for rear edge populations.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                cindyqtang@aol.com
                ycyang@cqu.edu.cn
                Journal
                Nat Commun
                Nat Commun
                Nature Communications
                Nature Publishing Group UK (London )
                2041-1723
                26 October 2018
                26 October 2018
                2018
                : 9
                : 4488
                Affiliations
                [1 ]GRID grid.440773.3, Institute of Ecology and Geobotany, , Yunnan University, ; 650091 Kunming, China
                [2 ]Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization, Matsunosato 1, Tsukuba-shi, Ibaraki-ken, 305-8687 Japan
                [3 ]ISNI 0000 0004 0370 1101, GRID grid.136304.3, Graduate School of Horticulture, , Chiba University, ; 648 Matsudo, Chiba, 271-8510 Japan
                [4 ]Botanic Institute of Barcelona (IBB, CSIC-ICUB), Passeig del Migdia s/n, Barcelona, 08038 Catalonia Spain
                [5 ]ISNI 0000 0001 0154 0904, GRID grid.190737.b, Key Laboratory of Three Gorges Reservoir Region’s Eco-Environment, Ministry of Education, , Chongqing University, ; 400045 Chongqing, China
                [6 ]The Nature Conservancy Society of Japan, Mitoyo Bldg. 2F, 1-16-10 Shinkawa, Chuo-ku, Tokyo, 104-0033 Japan
                [7 ]ISNI 0000 0001 2105 6888, GRID grid.267849.6, Southern Institute of Ecology, , Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, ; Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
                [8 ]GRID grid.444008.c, Northeastern Research Institute of Petrified Wood and Mineral Resources, , Nakhon Ratchasima Rajabhat University, ; Nakhon Ratchasima, 30000 Thailand
                [9 ]ISNI 0000 0001 1393 1398, GRID grid.417808.2, Botanical Garden-Institute FEB RAS, ; Makovskii Str. 142, Vladivostok, Russia 690024
                [10 ]Pacific Gas and Electric Company, 3401 Crow Canyon Road, San Ramon, CA 94583 USA
                [11 ]ISNI 0000 0001 2181 3113, GRID grid.166341.7, The Academy of Natural Science, ; 1900 Benjamin Franklin Parkway, Philadelphia, PA 19103 USA
                [12 ]ISNI 0000000120346234, GRID grid.5477.1, Plant Ecology & Biodiversity, , Utrecht University, ; Domplein 29, Utrecht, 3512 JE Netherlands
                [13 ]GRID grid.422760.5, Tall Timbers Research Station and Land Conservancy, ; 13093 Henry Beadel Drive, Tallahassee, FL 32312 USA
                [14 ]ISNI 0000 0001 2111 1904, GRID grid.449681.6, Interdisciplinary Institute of environmental, Social and Human Studies, , University of Flensburg, ; Flensburg, Germany
                [15 ]GRID grid.440773.3, Institute of Botany, , Yunnan University, ; 650091 Kunming, Yunnan China
                [16 ]ISNI 0000 0001 2104 9346, GRID grid.216566.0, Research Institute of Resource Insects, , Chinese Academy of Forestry, ; 650224 Kunming, China
                [17 ]Kunming Institute of Forestry Exploration and Design, The State Forestry Administration of China, 650216 Kunming, China
                [18 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1764 155X, GRID grid.458460.b, Centre for Mountain Ecosystem Studies, , Kunming Institute of Botany-CAS, ; 650204 Kunming, China
                [19 ]ISNI 0000000119573309, GRID grid.9227.e, CAS Key Laboratory of Mountain Ecological Restoration and Bioresource Utilization & Ecological Restoration and Biodiversity Conservation Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu Institute of Biology, , Chinese Academy of Sciences, ; 610041 Chengdu, China
                [20 ]Kunming Agrometeorological Station of Yunnan Province, 650228 Kunming, China
                [21 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1804 268X, GRID grid.443382.a, Guizhou University of Engineering Science, ; 551700 Bijie, China
                [22 ]ISNI 0000 0004 0640 9413, GRID grid.440890.1, Tokyo University of Information Sciences, ; 4-1 Onaridai Wakaba-ku, Chiba, 265-8501 Japan
                [23 ]ISNI 0000 0001 0345 927X, GRID grid.411575.3, College of Life Sciences, , Chongqing Normal University, ; Shapingba, 401331 Chongqing, China
                [24 ]Chongqing Three Gorges Medical College, 404120 Chongqing, China
                [25 ]School of Geography, Southwest China Forestry University, 650224 Kunming, China
                [26 ]ISNI 0000 0004 0369 6365, GRID grid.22069.3f, School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, , East China Normal University, ; 200241 Shanghai, China
                [27 ]ISNI 0000 0000 8571 108X, GRID grid.218292.2, Kunming University of Science and Technology, ; 650500 Chenggong, China
                [28 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1798 048X, GRID grid.464490.b, Yunnan Academy of Forestry, ; 650201 Kunming, China
                [29 ]Key Laboratory of Tropical Forest Ecology, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ailaoshan Station for Subtropical Forest Ecosystem Studies, National Forest Ecosystem Research Station at Ailaoshan, 650091 Kunming, Yunnan China
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7627-7776
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7601-0588
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5752-4169
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6072-8464
                Article
                6837
                10.1038/s41467-018-06837-3
                6203703
                30367062
                a176ed94-58e3-4998-84ed-e84bae30c3e6
                © The Author(s) 2018

                Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

                History
                : 25 January 2018
                : 25 September 2018
                Funding
                Funded by: We acknowledge funding by the Global Environmental Research (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment (Japan), the “Proyecto Intramural Especial, PIE” (grant no. 201630I024) from the CSIC, Spain, the Natural Science Foundation Project of CQ CSTC (cstc2016jcyjA0379) (China), and the Northeastern Research Institute of Petrified Wood and Mineral Resources, Nakhon Ratchasima Rajabhat University (Thailand).
                Funded by: The Global Environmental Research (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment (Japan)
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