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      Reduction in nutritional quality and growing area suitability of common bean under climate change induced drought stress in Africa

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          Abstract

          Climate change impacts on food security will involve negative impacts on crop yields, and potentially on the nutritional quality of staple crops. Common bean is the most important grain legume staple crop for human diets and nutrition worldwide. We demonstrate by crop modeling that the majority of current common bean growing areas in southeastern Africa will become unsuitable for bean cultivation by the year 2050. We further demonstrate reductions in yields of available common bean varieties in a field trial that is a climate analogue site for future predicted drought conditions. Little is known regarding the impact of climate change induced abiotic stresses on the nutritional quality of common beans. Our analysis of nutritional and antinutritional compounds reveals that iron levels in common bean grains are reduced under future climate-scenario relevant drought stress conditions. In contrast, the levels of protein, zinc, lead and phytic acid increase in the beans under such drought stress conditions. This indicates that under climate-change induced drought scenarios, future bean servings by 2050 will likely have lower nutritional quality, posing challenges for ongoing climate-proofing of bean production for yields, nutritional quality, human health, and food security.

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          Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030.

          Investments aimed at improving agricultural adaptation to climate change inevitably favor some crops and regions over others. An analysis of climate risks for crops in 12 food-insecure regions was conducted to identify adaptation priorities, based on statistical crop models and climate projections for 2030 from 20 general circulation models. Results indicate South Asia and Southern Africa as two regions that, without sufficient adaptation measures, will likely suffer negative impacts on several crops that are important to large food-insecure human populations. We also find that uncertainties vary widely by crop, and therefore priorities will depend on the risk attitudes of investment institutions.
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            Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates.

            Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.
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              Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming.

              The impact of projected global warming on crop yields has been evaluated by indirect methods using simulation models. Direct studies on the effects of observed climate change on crop growth and yield could provide more accurate information for assessing the impact of climate change on crop production. We analyzed weather data at the International Rice Research Institute Farm from 1979 to 2003 to examine temperature trends and the relationship between rice yield and temperature by using data from irrigated field experiments conducted at the International Rice Research Institute Farm from 1992 to 2003. Here we report that annual mean maximum and minimum temperatures have increased by 0.35 degrees C and 1.13 degrees C, respectively, for the period 1979-2003 and a close linkage between rice grain yield and mean minimum temperature during the dry cropping season (January to April). Grain yield declined by 10% for each 1 degrees C increase in growing-season minimum temperature in the dry season, whereas the effect of maximum temperature on crop yield was insignificant. This report provides a direct evidence of decreased rice yields from increased nighttime temperature associated with global warming.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                charles.spillane@nuigalway.ie
                Journal
                Sci Rep
                Sci Rep
                Scientific Reports
                Nature Publishing Group UK (London )
                2045-2322
                1 November 2018
                1 November 2018
                2018
                : 8
                : 16187
                Affiliations
                [1 ]ISNI 0000 0004 0488 0789, GRID grid.6142.1, Plant & AgriBiosciences Research Centre (PABC), Ryan Institute, National University of Ireland Galway, University Road, ; Galway, H91 REW4 Ireland
                [2 ]ISNI 0000 0001 0943 556X, GRID grid.418348.2, International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), ; Km. 17 Recta Cali-Palmira A. A., 6713 Cali, Colombia
                [3 ]CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Cali, Colombia
                [4 ]Pan African Bean Research Alliance (PABRA), International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), P.O. Box 158, Lilongwe, Malawi
                [5 ]ISNI 0000 0001 0791 5666, GRID grid.4818.5, Division of Human Nutrition and Health, Wageningen University, ; P.O. Box 17 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7331-1446
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8044-583X
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3318-323X
                Article
                33952
                10.1038/s41598-018-33952-4
                6212502
                30385766
                a255c5e8-f621-4559-add8-4790ae9aa47d
                © The Author(s) 2018

                Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

                History
                : 30 January 2018
                : 27 September 2018
                Funding
                Funded by: FundRef https://doi.org/10.13039/501100002081, Irish Research Council;
                Award ID: CropBioFort project funded by the Irish Research Council’s New Foundations program
                Award ID: GOIPG/2014/1021
                Award ID: GOIPG/2014/1021 and the CropBioFort project
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: CGIAR Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) program
                Funded by: FundRef https://doi.org/10.13039/501100001602, Science Foundation Ireland (SFI);
                Award ID: 13/IA/1820
                Award ID: 13/IA/1820
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: CIAT Malawi
                Funded by: Harvest Plus & CIAT Colombia
                Funded by: CIAT, Colombia
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