Validating the Applicability of Bayesian Inference with Surname and Geocoding to Congressional Redistricting

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Abstract

Ensuring descriptive representation of racial minorities without packing minorities too heavily into districts is a perpetual difficulty, especially in states lacking voter file race data. One advance since the 2010 redistricting cycle is the advent of Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG), which greatly improves upon previous ecological inference methods in identifying voter race. In this article, we test the viability of employing BISG to redistricting under two posterior allocation methods for race assignment: plurality versus probabilistic. We validate these methods through 10,000 redistricting simulations of North Carolina and Georgia’s congressional districts and compare BISG estimates to actual voter file racial data. We find that probabilistic summing of the BISG posteriors significantly reduces error rates at the precinct and district level relative to plurality racial assignment, and therefore should be the preferred method when using BISG for redistricting. Our results suggest that BISG can aid in the construction of majority-minority districts during the redistricting process.

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Most cited references 19

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Improving Ecological Inference by Predicting Individual Ethnicity from Voter Registration Records

Kabir Khanna, Kosuke Imai (2016)

In both political behavior research and voting rights litigation, turnout and vote choice for different racial groups are often inferred using aggregate election results and racial composition. Over the past several decades, many statistical methods have been proposed to address this ecological inference problem. We propose an alternative method to reduce aggregation bias by predicting individual-level ethnicity from voter registration records. Building on the existing methodological literature, we use Bayes's rule to combine the Census Bureau's Surname List with various information from geocoded voter registration records. We evaluate the performance of the proposed methodology using approximately nine million voter registration records from Florida, where self-reported ethnicity is available. We find that it is possible to reduce the false positive rate among Black and Latino voters to 6% and 3%, respectively, while maintaining the true positive rate above 80%. Moreover, we use our predictions to estimate turnout by race and find that our estimates yields substantially less amounts of bias and root mean squared error than standard ecological inference estimates. We provide open-source software to implement the proposed methodology.

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A new method for estimating race/ethnicity and associated disparities where administrative records lack self-reported race/ethnicity.

Marc N Elliott, Allen Fremont, Peter A Morrison … (2008)

To efficiently estimate race/ethnicity using administrative records to facilitate health care organizations' efforts to address disparities when self-reported race/ethnicity data are unavailable. Surname, geocoded residential address, and self-reported race/ethnicity from 1,973,362 enrollees of a national health plan. We compare the accuracy of a Bayesian approach to combining surname and geocoded information to estimate race/ethnicity to two other indirect methods: a non-Bayesian method that combines surname and geocoded information and geocoded information alone. We assess accuracy with respect to estimating (1) individual race/ethnicity and (2) overall racial/ethnic prevalence in a population. The Bayesian approach was 74 percent more efficient than geocoding alone in estimating individual race/ethnicity and 56 percent more efficient in estimating the prevalence of racial/ethnic groups, outperforming the non-Bayesian hybrid on both measures. The non-Bayesian hybrid was more efficient than geocoding alone in estimating individual race/ethnicity but less efficient with respect to prevalence (p<.05 for all differences). The Bayesian Surname and Geocoding (BSG) method presented here efficiently integrates administrative data, substantially improving upon what is possible with a single source or from other hybrid methods; it offers a powerful tool that can help health care organizations address disparities until self-reported race/ethnicity data are available. © Health Research and Educational Trust.