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      Global alcohol exposure estimates by country, territory and region for 2005--a contribution to the Comparative Risk Assessment for the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study.

      Addiction (Abingdon, England)
      Adult, Alcohol Drinking, epidemiology, trends, Alcoholic Beverages, statistics & numerical data, Female, Global Health, Humans, Male, Models, Statistical, Prevalence, Risk Assessment

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          Abstract

          This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of life-time abstainers, former drinkers and current drinkers, adult per-capita consumption of alcohol and pattern of drinking scores, by country and Global Burden of Disease region for 2005, and to forecast these indicators for 2010. Statistical modelling based on survey data and routine statistics. A total of 241 countries and territories. Per-capita consumption data were obtained with the help of the World Health Organization's Global Information System on Alcohol and Health. Drinking status data were obtained from Gender, Alcohol and Culture: An International Study, the STEPwise approach to Surveillance study, the World Health Survey/Multi-Country Study and other surveys. Consumption and drinking status data were triangulated to estimate alcohol consumption across multiple categories. In 2005 adult per-capita annual consumption of alcohol was 6.1 litres, with 1.7 litres stemming from unrecorded consumption; 17.1 litres of alcohol were consumed per drinker, 45.8% of all adults were life-time abstainers, 13.6% were former drinkers and 40.6% were current drinkers. Life-time abstention was most prevalent in North Africa/Middle East and South Asia. Eastern Europe and Southern sub-Saharan Africa had the most detrimental pattern of drinking scores, while drinkers in Europe (Eastern and Central) and sub-Saharan Africa (Southern and West) consumed the most alcohol. Just over 40% of the world's adult population consumes alcohol and the average consumption per drinker is 17.1 litres per year. However, the prevalence of abstention, level of alcohol consumption and patterns of drinking vary widely across regions of the world. © 2013 The Authors, Addiction © 2013 Society for the Study of Addiction.

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          National, regional, and global trends in systolic blood pressure since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 786 country-years and 5·4 million participants.

          Data for trends in blood pressure are needed to understand the effects of its dietary, lifestyle, and pharmacological determinants; set intervention priorities; and evaluate national programmes. However, few worldwide analyses of trends in blood pressure have been done. We estimated worldwide trends in population mean systolic blood pressure (SBP). We estimated trends and their uncertainties in mean SBP for adults 25 years and older in 199 countries and territories. We obtained data from published and unpublished health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (786 country-years and 5·4 million participants). For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean SBP by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally representative. In 2008, age-standardised mean SBP worldwide was 128·1 mm Hg (95% uncertainty interval 126·7-129·4) in men and 124·4 mm Hg (123·0-125·9) in women. Globally, between 1980 and 2008, SBP decreased by 0·8 mm Hg per decade (-0·4 to 2·2, posterior probability of being a true decline=0·90) in men and 1·0 mm Hg per decade (-0·3 to 2·3, posterior probability=0·93) in women. Female SBP decreased by 3·5 mm Hg or more per decade in western Europe and Australasia (posterior probabilities ≥0·999). Male SBP fell most in high-income North America, by 2·8 mm Hg per decade (1·3-4·5, posterior probability >0·999), followed by Australasia and western Europe where it decreased by more than 2·0 mm Hg per decade (posterior probabilities >0·98). SBP rose in Oceania, east Africa, and south and southeast Asia for both sexes, and in west Africa for women, with the increases ranging 0·8-1·6 mm Hg per decade in men (posterior probabilities 0·72-0·91) and 1·0-2·7 mm Hg per decade for women (posterior probabilities 0·75-0·98). Female SBP was highest in some east and west African countries, with means of 135 mm Hg or greater. Male SBP was highest in Baltic and east and west African countries, where mean SBP reached 138 mm Hg or more. Men and women in western Europe had the highest SBP in high-income regions. On average, global population SBP decreased slightly since 1980, but trends varied significantly across regions and countries. SBP is currently highest in low-income and middle-income countries. Effective population-based and personal interventions should be targeted towards low-income and middle-income countries. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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            On the Variances of Asymptotically Normal Estimators from Complex Surveys

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              Reducing the global burden of hazardous alcohol use: a comparative cost-effectiveness analysis.

              Intervention strategies are available for reducing the high global burden of hazardous alcohol use as a risk factor for disease, but little is known about their potential costs and effects at a population level. This study set out to estimate these costs and effects. Analyses were carried out for 12 epidemiological World Health Organization subregions of the world. A population model was used to estimate the impact of evidence-based personal and nonpersonal interventions--including brief physician advice, taxation, roadside random breath testing, restricted sales access and advertising bans. Costs were measured in international dollars (I$); population-level intervention effects were gauged in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. Average and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (CERs) were computed. The most costly interventions to implement are brief advice in primary care and roadside breath testing of drivers. In populations with a high prevalence of heavy drinkers (more than 5%, such as Europe and North America), the most effective and cost-effective intervention was taxation (more than 500 DALYs averted per 1 million population; CER < I$500 per DALY averted). In populations with a lower prevalence of heavy drinking, however, taxation is estimated to be less cost effective overall than other, more targeted strategies, such as brief physician advice, roadside breath testing and advertising bans. The most efficient public health response to the burden of alcohol use depends on the prevalence of hazardous alcohol use, which is related to overall per capita consumption. Population-wide measures, such as taxation, are expected to represent the most cost-effective response in populations with moderate or high levels of drinking, whereas more targeted strategies are indicated in populations with lower rates of hazardous alcohol use.
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