Numerical modelling of past retreat and future evolution of Chhota Shigri glacier in Western Indian Himalaya

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ABSTRACT

The history of glacier length fluctuations serves as a reliable indicator of the past climate. In this paper, a numerical flowline model has been used to study the relationship between length variations of Chhota Shigri glacier and local climate since 1876. The simulated front positions of Chhota Shigri glacier are in agreement with those observed. After a successful simulation of the past retreat, the model was also used to predict future evolution of the glacier for the next 100 years under different climatic scenarios. These simulations indicate that the Chhota Shigri glacier may lose ~90% of its present volume by 2100 if the local temperature increases by 2.4 K, and for a temperature rise of 5.5 K, the glacier loses almost all its volume.

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A new procedure for gridding elevation and stream line data with automatic removal of spurious pits

M.F. Hutchinson (1989)

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Time–Scale for Adjustment of Glaciers to Changes in Mass Balance

Ed Waddington, Tómas Jóhannesson, Charles Raymond (1989)

The length of time TM over which a glacier responds to a prior change in climate is investigated with reference to the linearized theory of kinematic waves and to results from numerical models. We show the following: TM may in general be estimated by a volume time-scale describing the time required for a step change in mass balance to supply the volume difference between the initial and final steady states. The factor f in the classical estimate of τM = ƒl/u, where I is glacier length and u is terminus velocity, has a simple geometrical interpretation. Ft is the ratio of thickness change averaged over the full length I to the change at the terminus. Although both u and f relate to dynamic processes local to the terminus zone, the ratio f/u and, therefore, Tm are insensitive to details of the terminus dynamics, in contrast to conclusions derived from some simplified kinematic wave models. A more robust estimate of Tm independent of terminus dynamics is given by TM= h/(–b) where h is a thickness scale for the glacier and –b is the mass-balance rate (negative) at the terminus. We suggest that Tm for mountain glaciers can be substantially less than the 1O2–103 years commonly considered to be theoretically expected.