Model Building and Simulation of the Development Trend of Community Health Services in China

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Abstract

Objective: To explore the pattern and trend of the future development of community health services (CHS).

Methods: The study focused on the promotion of “six-in-one” function of CHS. Based on the characteristics and development status of CHS and using the simulation theory and method of system dynamics, the kernel variables of the development of CHS system were determined, and the policy simulation models and variable equation were established within the inner structure of the system. By using the simulation software Vensim, the simulation and prediction of the future development trend of CHS were made.

Results: Four subsystems of the normal function of CHS were established, including medical services, human resources, medical equipment and medical equipments. The number of people receiving diagnosis and treatment and the number of people being hospitalized are the kernel variables of the subsystem of medical resources; the number of health workers is the kernel variable of the subsystem of human resources; the total value of equipment worth more ten thousand yuan is the kernel variable of subsystem of medical equipment; the gap between revenues and expenditures is the kernel variable of the subsystem of economic system. The number of people receiving diagnosis and treatment, the number of people being hospitalized, the number of health workers, the total value of equipment worth more ten thousand yuan and the gap between revenues and expenditures in 2020 are 2 227.11 million, 13.976 million, 7 281.85 million, 94 701.5 million and -1 974.99 million.

Conclusion: The number of people receiving diagnosis and treatment, the number of people being hospitalized, the number of health workers and the total value of equipment worth more ten thousand yuan have been increasing. The gap between revenues and expenditures has up and downs, while the fluctuation is not distinct, which is common due to the Objective: law of balance between income and payment.

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Journal

Journal ID (publisher-id): CGP

Title: Chinese General Practice

Publisher: Compuscript (Ireland )

ISSN (Electronic): 1007-9572

Publication date (Print): 5 January 2016

Publication date (Electronic): 5 January 2016

Volume: 19

Issue: 1

Affiliations

[1] ¹School of Economics and Management, Jiangxi Science & Technology Normal University, Nanchang 330031, China

Article

Publisher ID: j.issn.1007-9572.2016.01.003

DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-9572.2016.01.003

SO-VID: a2fe65ab-dc15-4d6f-8f94-45aa83e99bb3

License:

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Unported License (CC BY-NC 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. See https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.

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